IMPACT OF TRADE REFORM IN AFRICAN BLOCS

Impact of Trade reform in African Blocs

--Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Using a multi-country and multi-sector CGE model, we  can assess the economic effects of an African CFTA.The analysis is based mainly on quantitative trade barriers (tariffs). The modelling exercise envisages two scenarios for comparison purposes. The first one considers the impact of two large FTAs in Africa: the South-Eastern (S-E) FTA group comprising COMESA, SADC, EAC and IGAD,which reflects the tripartite initiative; and the North-West-Central (N-W-C) FTA group covering ECOWAS,CEN-SAD, ECCAS and UMA. The second scenario applies a continental approach, where all African countries fully liberalize trade in goods. All scenarios are assumed

to be fully implemented by 2017. However, as variables need time to adjust in the model, results are given for the year 2022. Comparisons are made between the scenarios considered and the baseline (i.e. situation without the implementation of any trade reforms) and expressed in per cent or absolute change, unless otherwise stated.

The prevailing conditions tend to indicate that high tariffs could potentially contribute to low intra-African trade. Within the two FTA groups—S-E and N-W-C—average protection rates are 7.7 per cent and 8.2 per cent. Intergroup average protection rates also show wide variations in imposed and faced protection: S-E exports to the N-W-C group face an average tariff of 16.5 per cent, and S-E group imposes 4.3 per cent tariff on N-W-C imports (table ). The formation of two regional FTAs (scenario 1) or the CFTA (scenario 2) would expand trade flows of African countries. Thus, establishing two large trading blocs—SE and N-W-C—would increase total African exports by US$ 17.6 billion (a 2.8 per cent increase from the baseline where FTAs are not set up) and the CFTA would add as much as US$ 25.3 billion (4.0 per cent) to the baseline, in 2022 .

PROTECTION AND TARIFF REVENUES BEFORE AND AFTER TRADE REFORM

		Before trade reform 2004			After regional FTAs2022		After CFTA,2022
Exporter	Importer	Trade million us$	Advalorem Equivalent Tariff%	Tariff revenue Million US$	Advalorem Equivalent Tariff%	Tariff revenue Million US$	Advalorem Equivalent Tariff%	Tariff revenue Million US$
S-EFTA GROUP	S-EFTA GROUP	8541	7.7	653	0	0	100	0
N-W-CFTA GROUP	N-W-CFTA GROUP	5251	8.2	430	0	0	100	0
S-EFTA GROUP	N-W-CFTA GROUP	2521	16.5	417	16.5	417	100	0
N-W-CFTA GROUP	S-EFTA GROUP	1827	4.3	78	4.3	78	100	0
AFRICA-TOTAL	AFRICA-TOTAL	18140	8.7	1578	2.7	495	0	0
S-EFTA GROUP	ROW	90162	3.6	3283	3.6	3283	3.6	3283
N-W-CFTA-GROUP	ROW	121409	1.7	2092	1.7	2092	1.7	2092
ROW	S-EFTA-GROUP	92709	10	9237	10	9237	10	9237
ROW	N-W-CFTA GROUP	96119	17.1	16415	17.1	16415	17.1	16415
ROW	ROW	7878099	3.2	251391	3.4	282913	3.4	282418
WORLD-TOTAL	WORLD-TOTAL	8066926	3.4	283996	3.4	283996	3.4	283996

Source-African Development Bank,2013

INDIA AND CHINA IN THE COLONIAL WORLD

INDIA  AND  CHINA IN THE COLONIAL WORLD

Edited by –MadhaviThampi (Soicial Science Press,NewDelhi,2005)ppix+250,Rs-295/-

Reviewed by – Dr.DebeshBhowmik

This volume is a product of a seminar on “Interactions between India and China in the era of colonialism and imperialism” held in November,2000,which was jointly sponsored by the Institute of Chinese Studies and the India International Centre,NewDelhi.The objective of the seminar was to bring together –perhaps , for the firsttime-scholars who have worked on different aspects of this particular phase of India-China relations.Participants belong to the disciplines of literature,culturalstudies,economics, history, politics,international relations etc.This volume is connected with trade, migratiorycommunities,cultural interaction, nationalist and revolutionary movement.AsiyaSiddiqi and Chen Zhilong, both deal with economic interaction between India and China in the colonial era.Chen looks at the patterns of commercial relations between China and India of the colonial period from the perspective of Shanghai.Bothemphasise that India’s trade with China served the needs of colonial commerce and colonial administration.MadhaviThampi’s paper explores the Indian community that grew in China in this period.She argued that the presence of Indian traders in China in the colonial period can be seen as a continuation of earlier patterns of intra-Asian trade as much as an outgrowth of the newer phenomenon of Britain’s trade with China.The business was not opium-centred.Huang observed at the outset that great civilization systems such as those  of India and China are expected not only to protect their own people , but also to render help to each other, and that both civilization unfortunately failed to do so under the onslaught from colonialism.

Two papers in culture section highlight just how difficult it is to separate cultural and intellectual interaction from the currents of political life.Both considered themselves as patriots and nationalists and took their stand against imperialist domination and aggression.B.R.Deepak shows us that the anti-imperialist collaboration between Indians and Chinese goes well back into the 19^thcentury.He observed that , unlike the case with the few westerners who joined the Taiping insurgents for money or personal gain, there is no evidence at all that any of the Indians in the Taiping ranks were mercenaries.Mira SinhaBhattacharjee throws light on the subject of the relationship between overseas Indians and overseas Chinese in third countries.Her paper focuses on a little known instance of cooperation between Indians and Chinese in South Africa at the beginning of the 20^thcentury.AvinashSaklani’s paper examines amore high profile instance of India China cooperation-during Nehru and Chiang Kai-shek.Relation between india and China in modern days is not warmer than they were in those days.GirishMaiti, in his paper, sets out to clear up what he considers are misconceptions about the attitude towards China of Subhash Chandra Bose, the leader ofINA. GeYikun and Li Wei , explore a positive feat of cooperation between India and China at the time of 1940s.Shalini Saksena’s paper shows just how intense was the interest among Indians of all hues in the dramatic developments in China , e fellow  Asian giant undergoing the pangs of tortuous rebirth.As she observes,”No other country was more directly concerned with political developments in China than India.”SurjitMansingh discusses how the way in which India and China mutually perceived each other at the end of the colonial era negatively affected their relationship as modern states.Infact,she presents their troubled relationship in the second half of the 20^th century as a classic case of misperceptions of the other country held by the two most influential charismatic leaders of modern India and China-Nehru and Mao.

In the world as a whole, the relationship between India and China is unique because they constitute not just two states , but two civilization systems.in the past, both civilisations found much to learn and absorb from each other, but this changed later on.One of the most damaging legacies of imperialism is that the interaction between different societies and cultures was mediated by the major powers of the western world.Knowledge of other societies was itself acquired only through the eyes of the dominant scholarship of the West , and despite the dismantling of the colonial structures, things did not substantially change on this front.