This paper has been presented in the 99th conference of Indian Economic Association at S.V.University,Tirupati on 28/12/2016
THE TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS OF INDIAN EXPORTS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
Dr.Debesh Bhowmik
Ex.Principal and Associate Editor, Arthabeekshan-Journal of BEA
Life member-Indian Economic Association
The Indian Econometric Society
Economic Association of Bihar
Bengal Economic Association
THE TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS OF INDIAN EXPORTS:AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
Dr.Debesh Bhowmik (Ex.Principal and Associate Editor, Arthabbekshan-Journal of BEA)
ABSTRACT
The paper explored that Indian exports increased at the rate 11.28% per year during 1968-2015 whose residuals are heteroscedastic having autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation problems. Export is exponentially increasing at the rate of 0.6058% per year . Indian exports showed four structural breaks in the year 1976,1988, 1995 and 2004 respectively. Hodrick- Prescott Filter is found good fit with minimized cycles.
The paper observed that Indian exports is positively significant with exchange rate, degree of openness and GDP during 1968-2015 but export unit value index, WPI, FDI inflows have shown insignificant usual relation with export. Its ADF are significant in both level and first difference series. The cross correlation coefficients are positive and significant. The exports and its determinants are cointegrated in the order one where Trace Statistic has five cointegrating vectors and Max Eigen Statistic has three cointegrating vectors. So, VECM showed speedy error correction process with good fit of the estimated seven equations but VECM is not stable and stationary having non normal distribution and without serial correlation.
Key words – Export trends, determinants of exports, cointegration, VEC
JEL-F14 ,F20, F21, P33
THE FULL PAPER WAS PUBLISHED IN THE INDIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL,SPECIAL NUMBER,DECEMBER,2016,
No comments:
Post a Comment