Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Monday, 28 September 2015

MID YEAR SEMINAR OF BEA AT IMI,KOLKATA ON 27/9/2015


MID YEAR SEMINAR OF BENGAL ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION ON 29-09-2015
AT INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE ,KOLKATA
On Planning Commission and NITI Aayog: Experiences and Expectations
Bengal Economic Association held its Mid Year Seminar on “Planning Commission and NITI Aayog: Experiences and Expectations” at INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT INSTITUTE ,KOLKATA on 27-09-2015.
The seminar was inaugurated by Prof.Arindam Banik-The Director of IMI.In his inaugural lecture,he said that the NITI Aayog just came in and its goal ,motive,strategy are still unknown.Why the financial allocations of NITI Aayog was not incorporated is confusionary.Prof.Anup Kumar Sinha of IIM(Kolkata) delivered his key note speech where he mentioned the history of planning,the routes of planning,crisis of planning,change of strategy by NITI Aayog.In the history,he mentioned about growth of employment,poverty,and the models of planning from the first high lighting allocations,post colonial reconstruction,Bretton Woods System and exchange rate management system,growth and distribution,low productivity,problem of implementation,corruptions,faltry planning,problem of land reform and green revolution,naxalist and Maoist problem,lobbies from states,short run expectations,economic reform,Washington consensus,WTO,free trade policy,huge fiscal deficit,unregulated market,capital mobility,uncontrolled money supply,investment market in development process where FDI is invited ,foreign currencies outflowed.Now,NITI Aayog leading by BJP government,which is a think tank,giving no power of sanction of funds ,but declared cooperative federalism,and they did not define the role of Aayog and its power clearly, but many visions to be done,how they control service-led growth sustainability,infrastructure market are not focused.Their composition of Aayog is somehow complex.
In the technical session-1,two papers were presented for the session on planning commission.Retired prof.Anath Bandhu Mukherjee,told about “Transforming India –The Neo-liberal Way” through the process and history of planning commission.He opined very negative expectations from the new BJP led NITI Aayog.Granthana Sengupta-Assistant Professor of Sundarban Hazi Desarat College,said on “Planning Commission and NITI Aayog:Experience and Expectation” where she clarified the success and failures of planning commission and to what extent the NITI Aayog can do for the welfare of the people.In the second technical session,there were three papers.Souvik Mukherjee of Jadavpur University told about “From the Planning Commission to the NITI Aayog:An Intellectual Journey” where he emphasized on the post colonial reconstruction to the birth of birth of the NITI Aayog in which there are many unanswered questions to be explored”.Kishor Naskar and Sourav Kumar Das,in their paper,”NITI Aayog:Central Planning Agency of India”,showed by a present structure and  modeled structure comparing the different Central Planning Agency by which they concluded about NITI Aayog.

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik,in his paper “NITI Aayog:Some Challenges Ahead” spoke about,the principles,objectives,composition,of NITI Aayog,the difference between planning commission and NITI Aayog, political economy of NITI Aayog and he mentioned about the outcome of 65 years of planning of the planning commission.Such as,
21.9% of India’s population live still below the poverty line which is underestimated in terms of per capita per day consumption expenditure.10% of people are still hungry and cannot get pure drinking water.40% of people have not any access of health facility and sanitation facility. More than 30% of people in India are illiterate. Less than 4% of GDP are expensed in health and education- a bare minimum.22% of the population live in the slums. The GDP share of top 10% of the population is increasing and on the other hand the GDP share of bottom 10% population is decreasing and thus inequality is rising. During 65 years of planning the GDP growth rate is increasing at the rate of 4.3% during 1970-2014 only, agricultural growth rate is less than 3% during the plans, the industry growth rate is below 6% only and service sector growth rate 7% only. On the contrary, agricultural share, industrial share and service sector share have been increasing at the rate of 1.69%,0.93% and 0.747% per year respectively during 1950-51-2013-14.Inflation rate is clouded over the economy where unemployment rate is decreasing at the rate of 2.09% per year only during 1983-2013.India’s HDI rank is 135 and GDI rank is 135 which are too backward but corruption index is too high whose rank is 85 out of 175. In this situation India’s globalization index (92.52) is high whereas she is enjoying structurally a trade deficit country since long. Her debt GDP ratio (65.5) is also alarming. What have contributed the Planning Commission to us during last 65 years? Sustainable development, green growth, food security, social security-all are in dreams to Indians but India is a super power now in context of military and defense expenditure. She is playing strategic power game in the international relation whereas her citizens are half-fed having without shelter.
There are some important strategic problems that should be carefully handled by the NITI Aayog .These are the following:
[1]No coordination among RBI,NITI Aayog/Planning Commission,finance ministry,Finance Commission,National Institute of Public Finance and Policy
[2] Generally ,Government dictates all institutions
[3]Except First/Fourth plan,no targets of the plans were actually realized.
[4] Strategy to achieve the central macro variables ( growth,saving,capital output ratio, employment growth, inflation and sectoral growth) were found weak.
[5] Less priority to the public sector economy.
[6]Due to political interest there are many unproductive and non capital formation programmes and projects.
[7] Emphasis on environment and renewable energy in recent times
[8] Fiscal federalism is weak and no fiscal convergence among states(fiscal deficit is now 5.6% of GDP but target rate is 4.1% which does not follow FRBM target of 3%).
[9] Uneven industrial growth/expansion among states
[10] North Eastern States are deprived and neglected in the planning structure 
[11] Inputs/ingradients of rural development were neglected
[12] Land reforms are undone in most of the states
[13] No long term policy measures for correcting structural trade deficit and BOP deficits.
         ( dominated by SAF and ESAF of IMF)

[14]Rupee convertibility was found premature death
[15]Revenue expansion policy should be revamped
[16]  unproductive government expenditure policy should be minimized
[17] No excuse on government corruptions
[18] Monitoring on Ministry of Finance,RBI,Planning Commission, Finance Commission is nil
[19]Progress of human development is marginal
[20] saving investment gap and trade gap is uncovered ( now saving is 30.1% of GDP but investment rate is 34.8% of GDP-a huge gap)
[21] rural development and urban development gap is widening
[22] more emphasis should given on natural resource mobilization
[23] less importance in the gender development and recently incorporated on gender budgeting
[24] poor infrastructure development but it is known that 1% increase in infrastructure will lead to 1% increase in GDP .
[25] to handle carefully the growth-employment,growth-inflation,and unemployment –inflation trade off.
Thus NITI Aayog has lot of works to do for the welfare of people.
Lastly,Vote of thanks was given by Bani Mukherjee.



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