49th Annual Conference of The Indian Econometric Society

49TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE INDIAN ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY

The Indian Econometric Society has organised its 49th Annual Conference at Patna University,Department of Statistics during 9-11January,2013.The conference was inaugurated by Prof.Shambhu Nath Sing-the Vice Chancellor of Patna University and the guest lecture was given by Law Minister ,Govt. of Bihar.The inaugural address was given by Prof.V.R.Panchamukhi.Presidential address was orated by Prof.Biswajit Chatterjee of Jadavpur University.Prof.NRBhanumurty gave vote of thanks as a secretary.A book,titled "Growth,Development and Diversity:India's record since Liberalisation" written by K.Pushpangadan and VNBalasubrahmanyam was released here.Prof.Mihir Rakshit of ICRA gave the special invited lecture on Liquidity Trap:Theory and Policy.There was a special panel session on Inflation Modelling in India.Sumit Majumder of University of Dallas,USA lectured on Innovation and Globalisation.Prof.Dilip Nachane of IGIDR gave lecture on Hilbert 16th problem,limit cycles and bifercation theory:Some Economic Application".Prof.Neeraj Hatekar of Mumbai University said on Econometrics with R.Dr.S.Chandrasekhar of IGIDR spoke about Econometrics of cross section and panel data.Prof.M.Ramachandran of Pondicherry University spoke on Time series Econometrics.A panel discussion was held on Data Base of the Indian Economy.A special session on the Bihar economy and planning was an attractive occassion.Prof.Satya P.Das of ISI,Delhi said about Introduction to sports Economics and a model of countryline and clubline cricket.Lastly Vice Chancellor closed the conference with vote of thanks by secretary.There were 20 technical sessions,consisting of more than 130 papers ,namely,

Technical Session I-A:  Topic: Macro-Monetary Economics -I

Technical Session I-B, Topic:  Industrial Economics - I

 Technical Session I-C, Topic: Agricultural Economics -I

Technical Session I-D, Topic: Development Economics- I

Technical Session I-E, Topic: International Economics -I

Technical Session II-A, Topic: Macro-Monetary Economics -II

Technical Session II-B, Topic: Industrial Economics - II 

Technical Session II-C, Topic: International Economics- II

Technical Session II-D, Topic: Health & Education

Technical Session II-E, Topic: Banking & Finance - I

Technical Session III-A, Topic: International Economics -III

 

Technical Session III-B, Topic: Industrial Economics -III 

Technical Session III-C, Topic: Agricultural Economics-II

Technical Session III-D, Topic: Development Economics -II

Technical Session III-E, Topic: Banking & Finance-II

Technical Session IV-A, Topic: Macro-Monetary Economics-III

Technical Session IV-B, Topic: Public Finance

Technical Session IV-C, Topic: International Economics - III

 

Technical Session IV-D, Topic: Development Economics -III

Technical Session IV-E, Topic: Banking & Finance -III

I had a paper under international Economics-III on euro crisis:The growth and employment-Behind the nexus.It was with Dr.Asim Kumar Karmakar of Jadavpur University

 

Euro Crisis : The Growth and Employment in EU-Behind the nexus

Dr.Debes Chandra Bhaumik (International Institute for Development Studies(Kolkata)

Email-debeshbhowmik@rediffmail.com

Site-dbhowmik.blog.com

Dr. Asim K.Karmakar (Jadavpur University)

JEL Classification: O47; J23; P50

Keywords: GDP growth, unemployment growth, convergence, 

ABSTRACT

       The Euro crisis has distorted the general economic relationships in most of the macro variables in Euro Area. The employment and growth nexus was positive before the beginning of the Euro crisis and international financial crisis. But, the relationship turned into negative during 1999-2011 in the Euro Area because of the impact of Euro crisis.

Following  Engle-Granger Methodology of Co-Integration test(1987) and the Johansen M.L.Method of cointegration(1996) including the Error Correction Model ,we tried to show  significant the relationship between employment and growth in Euro zone during 1999-2011.The co-integration test suggests that there is no cointegration between growth of GDP and unemployment in the order of (1,1).The ECM model supported this result. The  impulse response analytic function of multiple graph suggest that it should not be converge to zero because change of unemployment  and change of growth rate are not co-integrated in the order of CI(1,1).

The Johansen M.L.Method of cointegration  showed there is no co-integration between the two variables in the order of (1,1) both in Trace Statistic and Max-Eigen values .

Before the crisis ,the above  result was not true because Walterskirchen(1999) showed that there is a very close relationship between GDP growth and employment in time-series as well as in cross-county analyses during 1988-1998 and  Signorelli(  2005 ) clarified that during the period 1995-2003  in EU-15 countries, the relationship was valid but better compared to US.

As regards policy option, The European Council has agreed the new strategy for jobs and growth, “the EU 2020 strategy” through[i] National Reform Programme,[ii] Joint Employment Report,[iii] country specific  recommendation by EU commission,[iv] Employment and Social Developments in Europe examining Joint Employment Report,[v] institutions like[a] European Employment Observatory Network and [b] Mutual Learning Programme,[vi] “New Momemtum for flexibility” developing “Quality of work”, exploring impact of employment policies, namely wages, taxation,and make work play, supporting job creation, exploring the impact of climate change on labour market and strengthening youth and self employment. Under “Lisbon  strategy”, EU countries have agreed on a number of precise targets and indicators for their joint efforts to create more jobs and growth. The main ones are that by 2010 the employment rate should have increased to 70 % and investment in research should have risen to 3 % of GDP.