CAPITAL INFLOWS AND SILVER STANDARD IN INDIA

ACHARYA BANGALORE B SCHOOL MANAGEMENT BUSINESS AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP REVIEW

VOLUME NO-8,ISSUE-1,OCTOBER 2016 - MARCH 2017

TITLE OF THE PUBLISHED PAPER-CAPITAL INFLOWS AND SILVER STANDARD IN INDIA

AUTHOR-DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK

ABSTRACT

Capital inflows and Silver Standard in India

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

In this paper author tries to relate gold and silver inflows with GDP,GDP per capita,export, import and gold silver price ratio in India during silver standard regime from 1851 to 1893. Author used semi-log,double-log regression models, Johansen cointegration and VAR models (1991,1996) and Bai-Perron model(2003) for structural change taking data from Maddison(2006) and Ambedkar(1923). The paper concludes that gold inflows during 1851-1893 had decreased at the rate of 0.34% per year insignificantly but it was nonstationary, convergent and had no structural breaks. Silver inflows during 1851-1893 had increased at the rate of 1. among silver inflows and gold inflows with those variables were also insignificant although GDP, export, import,and gold silver price ratio had been increasing at the rates of 0.52%,9.14% ,5.16% and 0.77% per year significantly. But double-log linear regression model suggested that gold inflows had significant impact from GDP,GDP per capita, export, and gold-silver price ratio but had no significant impact of silver inflows from those variables during 1851-1893 respectively. Yet,there is bidirectional causality among gold inflows, GDP, GDP per capita, export, import and gold silver price ratio significantly during the given period. Even, there were sharp depreciation of rupee sterling rate,falling silver price ,silver production and rising gold price and gold production during the silver standard regime. Thus, gold and silver inflows could not synthesize the silver standard more effective in macro-dynamic adjustment during 1851-1893 although the series of managerial experiments of the commissions and government are equally responsible for instability of the silver standard in India which was equally identical with gold standard in England.

Key words-Net gold inflows, net silver inflows, silver standard, GDP, export, import, cointegration, VAR

JEL-E42,F33,N10,N20

INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON INDIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT YEARS:A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON 25JULY,2017

ORGANISED BY

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS,BARRACKPORE RATRAGURU SURENDRANATH COLLEGE

IN COLABORATION WITH

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS ,WESTBENGAL STATE UNIVERSITY

CENTRE FOR TRAINING AND RESEaRCH IN PUBLIC FINANCE AND POLICY ,

CENTRE FOR STUDIES IN SOCIAL SCIENCE,CALCUTTA

After inauguration welcome address was given by Principal Dr.Manojit Roy showed appreciation on the theme chosen by the college.Dr.Tusher Kanti Nandy,(CTRPFP) tried give a brief idea of the centre where research,training on public finance under ministry of finance have been conducted.Prof Kausik Gupta of Calcutta University gives inaugural lecture on “Macroeconomic perspectives of Indian Economic development In recent years:An overview” where he emphasized on inclusive growth,changes in growth in several phases,eg,fall due to corruption, and rise due to social sector development,He noted Sen and Dreze and Bhagavati and Panagaiya in respect of growth and development.He gave reasons for  jobless growth in the phases 2008-2013.He tried to show real balance effect due to demonetization,and the reduction of growth.Govt.failed to control black money and less availability internet for digital economy.He also raised some questions about GST in context specification and rates and asked whether it is related with demonetization.Prof.Basab Chowdhury ,Vice Chancellor of WBSU, welcome all and said some tides to read economics however he is not glad why students are unwilling to read economics whereas it is related to real life and can solve common problems for all.Prof.Sushil Halder,of Jadavpur University addressed on “Gender and Economic Development in India:Some emerging issues” where he noted that is growth gender nutral,and discussed about gender gap ratio,HDI,GDI,GEM,and reviewing literature he showed that over all sex ratio trend is declining and then rising  and it is heterogeneous for states in India.He showed it by comparative studies.He used LSDV model with dummy variable to verify this notion.He also showed female work participation rate,poverty and child ratio and found significant results.

In the special lecture session,Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhyaya of WBSU,gave lecture on effects of demonetization on Indian capital market showing structural breaks and nonstationarity in share indices in India.Even he showed changing pattern of autocorrelation structure and verified bank indices nonstationary after demonetization.Prof.Tusher Kanti Nandy of CTRPFP,lucidly explain the concepts,classification and system of GST in India.He explained the rates,calculation of rates,exemption limit,distribution of turnover,finance commission views,on GST rates and implications.Dr.Jayanta Dwibedi of BKC college in his paper “Fiscal Performances in Indian States” explains the role of centre and state on the fiscal deficit where he emphasis on revenue deficit.He explained the distribution of tax revenue among the states where role of finance commission is vital.He worked out a model using transfer functions where he intended to show that poor states should get higher tax revenue than the richer .Prof.Anindya Biswas of  Spring Hill University,USA said his lucid lecture on “Real sector and financial sector of the economy:An Overview”where he explains marginal value of wealth,inflation gap,output gap,potential gap,and tried to verify it in US economy and he endeavours to find Taylors Macro rule in near future.

There were two parallel technical sessions each contain 8 papers.

In technical session-1

1]Anadi Sarker-THKJain College-“A Study on development of rural areas through khadi sector in India”

2]Ashoke Biswas-APC College-“India’s manufacturing sector :Challenging in Make in India Campaign”

3]Rajyasri Roy-Phd scholar of Calcutta University-“Are Informal workers more poverty striken than the formal workers in India”

4] Dipak Biswas-Swami Niswambalananda Girl’s College-“Role of NABARD on SHG Bank linkage programme for Indian Economic Development: study”

5]Dr.Debesh Bhowmik-Retired Principal-“Econometric analysis of India’s International GDP share during 1960-2015”

6]Anurag Banerjee-MPhil Scholar-University of Calcutta,-“Determinants of the level capitalization of Indian commercial banks”

7]Mainak Bhattacharjee-Heritage College-“Globalisation and economic development:A study on India vis-à-vis world”

8]Avik Chattopadhyaya-Jaipuria College-“Agricultural Insurance :A way towards economic growth as well as prevailing difficulties in West Bengal”

Session-2

1]Sangita Roy-Research Scholar-Viswa-Bharati-“Trade liberalization,skilled-unskilled labour and wage distribution”

2]Sushrita Mukherjee-Taki Govt.College-“Demonetisation in India:An attempt towards achieving a modern,digital and cashless economy”

3]Pallabi Jalasaria-JRF Research Scholar-Calcutta University-“Efficiency analysis of Indian commercial Banks in Post reform period”

4]Moumita Das-BRS College and Soumyadip Chattopadhyaya-Viswa Bharati-“An analysis of fiscal decentralization to Urban local governments in West Bengal”

5]Gobindalal Mandal(NewAlipore College)and Atanu Ghosh(NewAlipore College)-“Generation of tax revenue in India-A tool for economic development”

6]Archita Pramanik and Mauli Sanyal(New Alipore College)-“Education in Jeopardy:The effect of FRBM Since inception”

7]Dipankar Das and Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhyay(WBSU)-“FDI inflows and Military expenditure:A study  across the emerging market economies”

8] Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhayay and Arun Kumar Mandal(WBSU)-“Infrastructure development and changing market penetration of consumer durables in rural India”

An Econometric analysis of world GDP share of India during 1960-2015

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik(Retired Principal)

Abstract

In this paper, author attempted to analyse India’s international GDP share during 1960-2015 with econometric models taking the data from World Bank. Semilog linear trend model, exponential trend model were used to find trend of Growth. Variance ratio test was used to show random walk. AR(1) model was used to show stationary, convergence and oscillations. ARIMA (1,1,1) forecast model was tested for  stationary of the series. Bai-Perron(2003) model explained to show structural breaks and Hodrick-Prescott Filter(1997 ) model minimized the cycles  for smoothness of trend of GDP share.

The paper concludes that India’s international GDP share has been declining at the rate of 0.459% per year during 1960-2015 and has been decreasing exponentially at the rate of 0.259% per year significantly. The variance ratio test confirmed that the series follows random walk. AR(1) process is significant, stable, converging and stationary. Forecast for 2035 of AR(1) model  is also a good fit. ARIMA(1,1,1) forecast model showed stable although non-stationary and likely to move downward towards 2035.Its AC and PAC are not declining and impulse response functions are diverging. Bai-Perron (2003) test assured that the GDP share has three structural breaks in 1968,1988 and 2006 respectively. The first two are downward and the third one is upward. H.P.Filter (1997)model reduced the cycle into a smooth trend which showed a clear tough during the study period. The GDP share contains cyclical fluctuations where 4peaks and 6 toughs are clearly visible.

Key words-  International GDP share, exponential growth, structural break, non-stationary, H.P.Filter

JEL-N15,O21,O24,O57,O10

 

Current Issue

Vol. 5 (2) July - December 2016

1.	Structure, Strategy and Market Power of Genomma Lab JoséG.Vargas Hernández
2.	Adjustment Dynamics Between Alternative Asset Classes: Gold, Rupee & Crude Using ARDL Bounds Testing Approach Namrata Chaubey,Apurva Gupta,Rakesh Shahani
3.	Impact of Pester-Power on Parents Purchasing Pattern For Child-centric Products Garima Malik,Manjot Shah
4.	A Perceptional Study From The Consumer Point of View on Online Shopping Market: An Exploratory Study in North 24 Parganas District (W.B.) Indrajit Ghosal
5.	India's Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Analysis Debesh Bhowmik
6.	Antescedents of Organised Retail Customer Satisfaction: An Empirical Analysis With Special Reference To Spencer's in Guntur District P. Daniel,M.S. Narayana,P. Vijay Kumar
7.	Impact of Working Capital Management in The Profitability – A Case Study of Oil and Natural Gas Corporation P. Hanumantha Rao
8..	EVA Based Performance Measurement: A Comparative Study of With Profitability and Leverage of Indian Corporates Priya Jain
9.	Factory Automation- To Be or Not To Be Garima Mathur,Ruturaj Baber Abstract In this paper author explained the trend lines, random walk, stationarity, structural breaks and volatility of FDI inflows in India during 1971-2015.Both log linear and exponential trends are significant. FDI inflows is stationary and showed four structural breaks in 1985,1994,2000 and 2006.Author found the relation among FDI inflows, growth rate, interest rate, inflation rate, exchange rate, fiscal deficit, external debt and trade openness with the help of Granger causality, Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction models. Trace statistic has four cointegrating equations and Max Eigen Statistic has three cointegrating equations. The speed of the vector error correction process is more or less slow except for change in interest rate and change in inflation rate which are significant where VECM is stable and diverging.Limitations and future scope of research are added. Policy recommendations are included. Key words- Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, ARIMA, structural breaks, causality, cointegration, vector error correction JEL- E23,E24,F13,F4,F2,O54

DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF MANAGEMENT PARADIGM

DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF MANAGEMENT PARADIGM 

This book titled “Dynamic Evolution of Management Paradigm” is an outcome of two-days International Seminar at Vidyasagar University (Department of MBA) during 26-27 February,2016  from where 38 papers have been selected for this edited volume.The editors are Prof and Head of MBA department Dr.Sudin Bag and Dr.Debesish Biswas,Assistant Professor.The study area was covered in Business, Economics,Management,Marketing  ,Accounting ,Finance and other allied areas on global basis.Many academicians in India and abroad including research scholars of Vidyasagar University attended the seminar and presented their papers.Prof.Ranjan Chakraborty,Vice Chancellor of Vidyasagar University inaugurated the seminar.

Some important papers of The contents are given below:

1]Consumer preference at the time of purchasing a smartphone :A study using conjoint analysis-Debarun Chakraborty and Suvojit Pahari

2]Peoples perception of green marketing and its influence on consumers of WestBengal-Akash Bhattacherjee and Surjyashikha Das

3]The supply chain management in the Indian coal industry with special reference to Ananda Carbo Pvt.Ltd.—Saroda Chatterjee

4]Resellers perceptual audit on different cement brands:A study on New Allied Products of a cement industry—Biswajit Roy and Sudin Bag

5]Redefination of Accounting cycle in its environment—Prof.Nibedita Mallick

6]FDI in Banking sector in India—Dr.Susanta Mitra and Nirmal Chandra Roy

7]Corporate corruption and corporate governance-a conceptual view---Dr.Pradeep Kumar Basu

8]NGO leadership  dynamics—Chandrajyoti Sen Majumder

9]Employee empowerment :A strategic approach to attain business excellence—Ananya Ghosh and Prof Debeshish Biswas

10]Are research and development activities dynamic in Indian Pharmaceutical industry:An empirical study

11]Role of crisis management to survive infrastructure sector-An Analysis---Sudarshan Maity

12]Corporate social responsibility:relevance of csr in Indian Business environment as a strategy for corporate sustainability---Prof.Gautam Sharma

13]Sustainable community development through ecotourism:A case study of North Bengal and Sikkim region---Dr.Shuvendu Dey and Analjyoti Basu

14]Micro credit :A financial tool for women empowerment in West Bengal with special reference to Bandhan Bank-Bijoy Gupta and Prof.Kartick Ch.Pal

15]Chinese Yuan enters into the basket of special drawing rights---Dr.Debesh Bhowmik.

All the papers are highly qualitative and future research deserving for students.

My paper—Page no-336-349

CHINESE YUAN ENTERS INTO THE BASKET OF SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHTS

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Keywords-Special Drawing Rights, Alternative weight of Yuan, Yuan /US$ exchange rate, ARIMA(1,1,1),AR(3),GARCH(1,1)

JEL-F31,F33,F55,F58,P34,

The paper analyses the approval of IMF for Yuan as one of the currency in the basket of SDR which will effect from 1-10-2016 showing the weight of Yuan as 10.92% as against 41.7% for US$, 30.9% for Euro , 8.3% for Yen and 8.1% for Pound Sterling respectively. An alternative weight for the SDR basket is proposed. 

The paper explained that the decision of IMF will boost internationalization of Yuan,will speed up the transition from managed float to freely floating exchange rate mechanism including reform of financial sector and capital account convertibility as well as bust in the equity and share markets. It might increase Chinese global export share and expect further depreciation of Yuan subject to increase in interest rate in Federal Reserve Bank.

The paper verified that Chinese gross and global shares of export and import are positively associated with gross SDR and global share of SDR during 1980-2013 which were observed by double log regression model but these variables were not cointegrated which are calculated by Johansen Cointegration Test. ARIMA(1,1,1) model is tested to show the stationarity of Yuan US$ monthly nominal exchange rate during 2010M1-2016M1. AR(3) process is applied to verify the volatility, stability and stationarity. Even GARCH(1,1) model including conditional variance were used to show high volatility during the specified period.

The paper emphasized that in the long run, China will lead the Asian and world capital market as well as Asian and global trade and finance as were observed in ancient past during 1300-1700.By 2030,Chinese global GDP share is projected as 33.4% as against 33.1% of USA. It is hoped that Chinese new status in the IMF might bring back as a catalyst to stabilize international monetary system with the emergence of SDR as a world reserve currency and as an unit of account for international payments mechanism if most of the countries peg their currencies with SDR which can converge international price level and increase global trade so that shortage of international liquidity might disappear and reestablishment of a new Bretton Woods III might evolve.

DYNAMIC EVOLUTION OF MANAGEMENT PARADIGM

Editors—Dr.Sudin Bag and Dr.Debashish Biswas(Department of MBA,Vidyasagar University,2016),Giri Printers,Price-850/-