WORLD TRADE OF NATURAL OIL

World Trade of Natural Oil 

-Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

 

The world financial crisis in both USA and EU which had spill over effects in the international economy had created bad impact on international trade of natural oil.The middleeast and the African countries which are the main producers of the world dwindled their exports since 2008 for which the import demand of USA , Europe and Japan had fallen sharply since 2008  and the international oil price had started to rise quickly as soon as the recession in EU began.USA imported 12872 thousands  barrels  daily in 2008 which fell down to 10587 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 19.1% of the total. Europe imported 13751 thousand barrel daily in 2008 which decreased to 12488 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 22.6 % of the total.The import of Japan also stepped down from 4925 thousand barrels to 4743 thousand barrels during the said period.The middle east and Africa , the main suppliers of oil had cut down their export . The middle east cut from 20128 thousand barrels daily in 2008 to 19699 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 35.6% of the total.Africa cut from 9979 thousand barrels daily in 2008 to 7168 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 13% of the total.Mexico also cut down from 1609 to 1366 thousand barrels daily during the said period.USA, being a strong producer of oil exported only 4.8% of the total exports in comparison to 5.5% of Canada in 2012.USSR had a great role in oil export market and contributed 15.5% of total exports in 2012.

 Table-1: Trade Movements of Natural oil

Thousand barrels daily	2002	2008	2012	2012 share of total
Imports
USA	11357	12872	10587	19.1
Europe	11895	13751	12488	22.6
Japan	5070	4925	4743	8.6
Rest of world	16291	23078	27496	49.7
Total world	44613	54626	55314	100
Exports
USA	904	1967	2680	4.8
Canada	1959	2498	3056	5.5
Mexico	1966	1609	1366	2.5
S.&cent America	2965	3616	3834	6.9
Europe	2234	2023	2174	3.9
USSR	5370	8184	8597	15.5
Middle East	18062	20128	19699	35.6
North Africa	2620	3260	2604	4.7
West Africa	3134	4587	4564	8.3
Asia Pacific	3848	5392	6419	11.6
Rest of World	1551	1363	322	0.6
World Total	44613	54626	55314	100

SYRIA TODAY

Syria today

--Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

According to 2011,Syria’s GDP is estimated as $64.7 billion  and per capita GDP is $5,100 .The GDP growth rate declined by more than 20%. The sectoral contribution of GDP in Agriculture showed 16.9%,in industry it was 27.4% and the service sector constituted 55.7% respectively.The economy faces high rates of inflation which is 30% and the  population below the poverty line  is 12% including high rate of unemployment of 12.3% . Its industrial areas are petroleum, textiles, food processing, beverages, tobacco, phosphate rock mining, cement, oil seeds crushing, car assembly etc.Syria exports namely crude oil, minerals, petroleum products, fruits and vegetables, cotton fiber, clothing, meat and live animals, wheat respectively whose main destinations are as follows, Iraq (55.9%), Saudi Arabia( 9.3%), Kuwait( 6.1%), United Arab Emirates (5.3%), Lebanon (4.2%).It exports generally machinery and transport equipment, electric power machinery, food and livestock, metal and metal products, chemicals and chemical products, plastics, yarn, paper etc whose main destinations are Saudi Arabia (21.2%), United Arab Emirates( 10.4%), Iran( 7.7%), China( 7.0%), Iraq( 6.3%), Ukraine( 6.3%), Egypt( 4.3% ) respectively. Its balance of trade deficit appears as 1.15 billion US $ in 2011. The gross external debt of Syria stood $8.006 billion as on 31 December 2011 in which its public debt became 34.4% of GDP .

The economy of Syria is based on agriculture, oil, industry and services. Its GDP per capita expanded 80% in the 1960s reaching a peak of 336% of total growth during the 1970s. This proved unsustainable for Syria and the economy shrank by 33% during the 1980s. However the GDP per capita registered a very modest total growth of 12% (1.1% per year on average) during the 1990s due to successful diversification. More recently, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected real GDP growth at 3.9% in 2009 from close to 6% in 2008. The two main pillars of the Syrian economy used to be agriculture and oil, which together accounted for about one-half of GDP. Agriculture, for instance, accounted for about 25% of GDP and employed 25% of the total labor force. However, poor climatic conditions and severe drought badly affected the agricultural sector, thus reducing its share in the economy to about 17% of 2008 GDP, down from 20.4% in 2007, according to preliminary data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. On the other hand, higher crude oil prices countered declining oil production and led to higher budgetary and export receipts.

Since the out break of the Syrian civil war, the Syrian economy has been hit by massive economic sanctions restricting trade with the Arab League, Australia, Canada, the European Union, (as well as the European countries of Albania, Croatia, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, and Switzerland), Georgia, Japan, Turkey, and the United States. These sanctions and the instability associated with the civil war have reversed previous growth in the Syrian economy to a state of decline for the years 2011 and 2012.

In this circumstances, the impact of chemical weapons used by the Syrian government which killed more than thousands of people including innocent children brought about UN intervention in Syria and it creates the possibility US attack on Syria which diverged the world politics in two poles  forgetting the Syrian crimes. However, the oil crisis begins  and provocates to hike the prices of crude oils and the international political situation became tensed damaging Syrian economy.