Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Monday 5 August 2013

COMPETITIVE INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY




Competitive International Liquidity
--Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

We have noticed a fundamental change in the international liquidity position.China ,now commands a largest share of international liquidity.In terms of SDR, its foreign exchange reserves reached at the unprecedented amount followed by Japan, Euro Area,and USA.Total reserves of China stood at 2,168,585.894 million SDR in comparison to 799306.721 million SDR of Japan,228502.488 million SDR of EU and 96680.191 million SDR in 2012 where China, EU, USA faced increasing trends of reserves but fell in Japan in 2012.The similar trends were seen in foreign exchange reserves in  terms of SDR during 2009-2012.All countries’ reserves in gold in fine troy ounces were more or less unchanged and it did not affect the international liquidity because there is no gold convertibility or gold exchange rate system in the world at present. But in the IMF reserves position, Euro Area ranks the first position followed by USA, Japan and China where the European and American dominance in IMF is clear even now.  Also, we found that in case of SDR reserves, Euro Area holds the largest share followed by USA, Japan and China. It is understood that only in 2012,Chinese reserves in the IMF marginally fell and Japanese reserves position in all respects increased but decreased in SDR holdings and dwindled foreign exchange reserves in terms of SDR in 2012.Therefore,Chinese and Japanese control over the international liquidity in terms of SDR is the new situation that gave USA dominance in trouble. The unit of account of reserves in terms of SDR is questionable because world payments mechanism is largely maintained through the exchange of US Dollar. Are we transforming into SDR system from US Dollar in clearing international liquidity? So,we have to wait for some time for the outcome of reforming international monetary system.   

Japan (Million )



2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Reserves
SDRs
652,926.207
690,126.788
820,373.250
799,306.721
Total Reserves Minus Gold
SDRs
652,065.122
689,265.703
819,512.164
798,445.635
Gold
Fine Troy Ounces
24.602
24.602
24.602
24.602
Reserve Position in the Fund
SDRs
2,751.248
2,992.343
11,189.153
8,887.154
SDR Holdings
SDRs
13,375.008
13,392.962
12,860.975
12,954.624
Foreign Exchange
SDRs
635,938.865
672,880.398
795,462.036
776,603.857

USA(million)


2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Reserves
SDRs
85,518.866
87,976.635
98,330.559
99,680.191
Total Reserves Minus Gold
SDRs
76,366.405
78,824.174
89,178.098
90,527.729
Gold
Fine Troy Ounces
261.499
261.499
261.499
261.499
Reserve Position in the Fund
SDRs
7,262.528
8,111.627
19,592.583
22,227.012
SDR Holdings
SDRs
36,878.209
36,898.149
35,794.962
35,818.621
Foreign Exchange
SDRs
32,225.668
33,814.398
33,790.553
32,482.095



Euro Area(million)


2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Reserves
SDRs
192,559.165
207,102.523
218,426.206
228,502.488
Total Reserves Minus Gold
SDRs
180,407.869
194,958.850
206,286.599
216,368.233
Gold
Fine Troy Ounces
347.180
346.962
346.846
346.693
Reserve Position in the Fund
SDRs
9,688.892
13,659.703
25,220.692
27,387.294
SDR Holdings
SDRs
46,706.536
46,802.748
45,493.920
45,279.005
Foreign Exchange
SDRs
124,011.342
134,495.360
135,571.144
143,167.107

China(million)


2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Reserves
SDRs
1,542,335.026
1,862,240.323
2,087,326.394
2,168,585.894
Total Reserves Minus Gold
SDRs
1,541,148.876
1,861,054.173
2,086,140.244
2,167,399.744
Gold
Fine Troy Ounces
33.890
33.890
33.890
33.890
Reserve Position in the Fund
SDRs
2,795.057
4,153.587
6,373.438
5,318.986
SDR Holdings
SDRs
7,979.644
8,015.753
7,722.150
7,388.758
Foreign Exchange
SDRs
1,530,374.175
1,848,884.833
2,072,044.657
2,154,692.001
Source-IMF.

Saturday 3 August 2013

INTERNATIONAL LIQUIDITY OF INDIA IS CRITICAL




International Liquidity of India is critical

--Dr.Debesh Bhowmik


We have noticed that the world  financial crisis which was originated in USA and subsequently spread all over the world , has  sufficient spill over in India too. Even, the Euro crisis affected too much in India in the external sector.In both the cases, India’s International liquidity has been worsen and we faced  capital inflows and fiscal deficit simultaneously.Even, the current account deficit had increased to a significant level.Therefore,India confronted with a shortage of liquidity because of its decrease in foreign exchange reserves.Since 2010,India’s total foreign exchange decreased to 176685.263 million SDR in 2012 from 179375.169million SDR although its gold reserves was unchanged.One notable point is that  India’s reserves position has been risen from 1548.352 millionSDR in 2010 to 2924.213 million SDR in 2012.The SDR holding decreased to 2886.381 million  in 2012 from 3297.068 million  in 2010.The foreign exchange reserves has dwindled from 173902.125 million SDR in 2010 to 170247.046 millionSDR in 2012.Therefore,net result was the contraction of international liquidity. The indirect effect was seen the falling external value of Indian rupee although NEER and REER are directly related with the value of Rupee as well as the India’s competitive position of share market is to be considered carefully. However, India’s BOP has not been improved due to shortage of international liquidity which was marginally better before the inception of the financial crisis.   
  

India’s reserves in million .

Reserves







2009
2010
2011
2012
Total Reserves
SDRs
169,782.067
179,375.169
177,329.731
176,685.263
Total Reserves Minus Gold
SDRs
169,154.443
178,747.546
176,702.107
176,057.640
Gold
Fine Troy Ounces
17.932
17.932
17.932
17.932
Reserve Position in the Fund
SDRs
912.065
1,548.352
2,555.377
2,924.213
SDR Holdings
SDRs
3,297.141
3,297.068
2,884.835
2,886.381
Foreign Exchange
SDRs
164,945.238
173,902.125
171,261.895
170,247.046

 Source-IMF