FACTORS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN ASEAN:PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

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            Volume 3 Issue 1 2019, Page

6.FACTORS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN ASEAN: PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS 
page - 
Debesh Bhowmik 
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FACTORS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN ASEAN: PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Debesh Bhowmik

Indian Economic Association (IEA) & The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), India

Corresponding Author's Email: debeshbhowmik269@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the author tried to relate HDI (Human Development Index) with GDP (Gross Domestic Product), education expenditure, health expenditure and unemployment rate in ASEAN-9 during 1990-2016 with fixed effect on panel regression, Fisher-Johansen cointegration and panel VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) respectively. The author found that one percent increase in GDP, education expenditure, and unemployment rate per year led to 0.105% increase, 0.028% increase and 0.027% decrease in HDI per year significantly and one percent increase in health expenditure led to 0.0124% increase in HDI insignificantly in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) during 1990-2016. Panel cointegration suggested that there are three cointegrating equations in which two are moving towards equilibrium. In panel VECM, it was found that-

2016. There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the Human Development Index (HDI) of the ASEAN during 1990-2016.
2017. There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the educational expenditure % of GDP of the ASEAN during 1990-2016.

• There is also a significant short run association among education expenditure on GDP, from HDI on education expenditure and from GDP on unemployment rate of ASEAN during 1990-2016.

Keywords: Human Development Index, Gross Domestic Product, Fixed Effect Regression, Panel Cointegration, Panel Vector Error Correction

INTRODUCTION

ASEAN is one of the leading regional trading blocs in Asia as well as in the world, but majority of its members are facing low GDP per capita and HDI value. Poverty and unemployment problems of ASEAN are randomly hampering the development process where both physical and human capital is suffering. Human capital as a function of growth through improvement in education and skill development and with high productivity should be a great concern in the ASEAN region. Human competitiveness index of ASEAN region is not satisfactory in the world economy. Even in the era of globalization and liberalization the human development factor is not given prior importance. The indicators of human development were not properly nourished. Therefore, the transformation of the economy through human development was underutilized. ASEAN as a single market for the goods, services, investment, skilled labor, free capital flows in accelerating economic integration process, intra and inter-competitiveness of human skill and productivity through human development. It is necessary because Lucas (1988) in his endogenous growth theory emphasized investment in human capital more directly and linked it to long term rates of economic growth. Sen (1999) argued that standard of living of a society should be judged not by the average level of income but by people’s capabilities to lead the life they value. On the one hand, economic growth provides the resources to permit sustained improvement in human development. On the other hand, sustained improvement in the quality of human capital is an important contribution to economic growth.

CONCLUSION

The paper concludes that fixed effect panel regression showed one percent increase in GDP, education expenditure, and unemployment rate per year led to 0.105% increase, 0.028% increase and 0.027% decrease in HDI per year significantly and one percent increase in health expenditure led to 0.0124% increase in HDI insignificantly in ASEAN during 1990-2016. Panel cointegration suggested that there are three cointegrating equations in which two are moving towards equilibrium. In panel VECM, it was found that [i] There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the human development index of the ASEAN during 1990-2016. [ii] There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the education expenditure percentage of GDP of the ASEAN during 1990-2016. [iii] There is significant short run association among education expenditure on GDP, from HDI on education expenditure and from GDP on unemployment rate of ASEAN during 1990-2016.

Women's Journey Towards Empowerment : Issues and Challenges edited by Prof. Prabhat Kumar Singh (Ranchi University) and Prof. Amit Bhowmik (Nur Mohammad Smriti Mahavidyalaya, Murshidabad)----2019

DELTON PUBLISHING HOUSE,NEWDELHI,HB,297+XXVII,Rs 1295.

It consists of 25 articles which cover wide range of women empowerment in the areas of agriculture, entrepreneurship, social sector, business, finance, in India and abroad .All articles are written by scholars of India and abroad. The foreword of this edited book is written by Prof. Elias Olukorede Wahab of Lagos State University, Nigeria.

                                                                    Article No-14

Women Empowerment with special emphasis on the relation among gender development index, human development index and gross domestic product per capita   pp 145-162

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik(Retired Principal,Life member IEA,TIES)

Abstract

In this paper, author wishes to find the relationship among the gender development index,human development index and the gross domestic product per capita of the 12 developed countries during 1990-2015 with the help of econometric models such as fixed effect panel regression, Fisher-Johansen panel co-integration , panel vector error correction model and Wald test .

The paper concludes that one per cent increase GDI per year led to 0.1143% increase in GDP per capita and 0.0191% increase in HDI per year significantly during 1990-2015 which were found by fixed effect panel regression. Fisher-Johansen panel co-integration test confirms that there is one co-integrating equation among GDP per capita, HDI and GDI during the survey period. The co-integrating equation tends to equilibrium which indicates that there is long run association among them. From the System equation of VECM it was verified that there is long run causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI. Error correction process showed that the speed of adjustment is 95.25% per year significant. Wald test verified that there is no short causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI and vice versa but there is short run causality running from HDI to GDP per capita. Over all, the VECM is stable, non-stationary, non-normal and serially correlated.

Key Words-gender development index, human development index, GDP per capita, Fisher-Johansen co-integration, panel vector error correction model, short run and long run causality.

JEL Classification –C23, J16, O15

The paper concludes that one per cent increase GDI per year led to 0.1143% increase in GDP per capita and 0.0191% increase in HDI per year significantly during 1990-2015 which were found by fixed effect panel regression. Fisher-Johansen panel co-integration confirms that there is one co-integrating equation among GDP per capita, HDI and GDI during the survey period. The co-integrating equation tends to equilibrium which indicates that there is long run association among them. From the System equation of VECM it was verified that there is long run causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI. Error correction process showed that the speed of adjustment is 95.25% per year significant. Wald test verified that there is no short causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI and vice versa but there is short run causality running from HDI to GDP per capita. Over all, the VECM is stable, non-stationary, non-normal and serially correlated.  

IMPACT OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE ON GDP,HDI,& UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ASEAN-7

ARTICLE

IMPACT OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE ON GDP,HDI AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ASEAN-7

BY   DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Published in INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND ANALYTICAL REVIEWS
SPECIAL ISSUE,JANUARY 2019,PAGE-184-197,ARTICLE NO-22.

There are 47 papers which were presented in the ICSSR sponsored International conference on "Emerging Socio-Economic Trends and Business Strategy" organised by International School of Business and Media,Kolkata during 18-19 January,2019.

IMPACT OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE ON GDP,HDI,& UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ASEAN-7

Abstract

In this paper author endeavours to relate the health expenditure of ASEAN-7 with GDP , HDI and unemployment rate of ASEAN-7 from 1990-2016 using panel data through the econometric models of fixed effect regression, panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model. The paper concludes that fixed effect panel regression among health expenditure % of GDP, HDI,unemployment rate and GDP of ASEAN-7 during 1990-2016 showed that one per cent increase in health expenditure per year led to 0.719% decrease in GDP per year but one per cent increase in HDI and unemployment rate per year led to step up 2.985% and 0.292% in GDP per year significantly.Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration confirmed that Trace and Max Eigen statistic showed two cointegrating equations where one cointegrating equation tends to equilibrium which implies that there is long run causality from GDP,HDI and unemployment rate of ASEAN-7 to the health expenditure as per cent of GDP during 1990-2016 where residuals VECM is stable,nonstationary,non-normal and serially correlated.Moreover,the Wald test suggests that there is short run causality running from health expenditure % of GDP of ASEAN-7 of previous periods to the change of GDP of ASEAN-7.

Key words : Health expenditure,human development index,unemployment rate,gross domestic product,fixed effect panel regression,cointegration,vector error correction,short run causality, long run causality.

JEL Classification code-C22,E24,F15,H15,I10,I18,J24,J64,O15,O40

VIII.Conclusions

The paper concludes that fixed effect panel regression among health expenditure % of GDP, Human Development Index, unemployment rate and GDP of ASEAN-7 during 1990-2016 showed that one per cent increase in health expenditure per year led to 0.719% decrease in GDP per year but one per cent increase in HDI and unemployment rate per year led to step up 2.985% and 0.292% in GDP per year significantly. Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration confirmed that Trace and Max Eigen statistic showed two cointegrating equations where one cointegrating equation tends to equilibrium which implies that there is long run causality from GDP,HDI and unemployment rate of ASEAN-7 to the health expenditure of ASEAN-7 as per cent of GDP during 1990-2016 where the residual test of  VECM is stable, nonstationary, non-normal and serially correlated. Moreover, the Wald test suggests that there is short run causality running from health expenditure % of GDP of ASEAN-7 of previous periods to the change of GDP of ASEAN-7.The paper also showed some limitations and discussed policy recommendations.

FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIAN SECTORS :PANEL COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIAN SECTORS :PANEL COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

BY.......DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK

UTTARPRADESH UTTARAKHAND ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION ECONOMIC JOURNAL

VOLUME-14,CONFERENCE NO-14, OCTOBER 2018

14TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ,GIDS LUCKNOW,
29-30 OCTOBER,2018,PAGE-304-309

FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIAN SECTORS:PANEL COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract

In this paper,author endeavours to evaluate empirical investigation on the sectoral female employment rate  in India during 1991-2016 through panel data analysis using regression, panel cointegration and panel vector error correction methodology taking sectoral shares, growth rates of sectors and value added in sectors as independent variables. The paper concludes that the panel regression found that female employment rate of all sectors is negatively related with GDP shares of sectors and growth rates of sectors during 1991-2016 in India. Fisher-Johansen panel cointegration test showed that there are two cointegrating equations among female employment rates of all sectors with GDP shares, growth rates of sectors and value added of the sectors during the said periods. The panel VECM is stable but nonstationary. In VECM system equations, Wald test suggested that there is long run association among growth rate of sectors, value added of sectors and female employment rate of all sectors and there is short causality from growth rates of sectors on shares of sectors and vice versa. Even, there is no short run causality from shares of sectors and growth rate of sectors on value added of sectors. There is no short run causality running from shares of sectors, growth rates of sectors and value added of sectors on female employment rate in all sectors.

Key words-sectoral employment rate, female employment rate, sectoral shares, sectoral growth rates, value added in sectors, Fisher-Johansen cointegration, vector error correction

JEL Classification-C33,J21,J64,L60,L80,Q10

The paper concludes that the panel regression found that female employment rate of all sectors is negatively related with GDP shares of sectors and growth rates of sectors during 1991-2016 in India. Fisher-Johansen panel cointegration test showed that there are two cointegrating equations among female employment rates of all sectors with GDP shares, growth rates of sectors and value added of the sectors during the said periods. The panel VECM is stable but nonstationary. In VECM system equations, Wald test suggested that there is significant long run association among growth rate of sectors, value added of sectors and female employment rate of all sectors and there is short causality from growth rates of sectors on shares of sectors and vice versa. Even, there is no short run causality from shares of sectors and growth rate of sectors on value added of sectors. There is no short run causality running from shares of sectors, growth rates of sectors and value added of sectors on female employment rates in all sectors.

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

MY ARTICLE

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

THEME-II

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract

In this paper,author studied the trends, prospects and determinants of EU-NAFTA  trade during 1990-2016 showing cointegration and vector error corrections of world export share and import shares of EU and NAFTA with their determinants like export and import concentration index,export and import diversification index and trade balance indicator. Moreover, Euro Area’s trade with NAFTA from 1995-2016 was also explained by export and import concentration index and trade correlation indices. The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly with stationary process in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM . Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off. 

JEL codes—C32,F02,F14,F15

Key words – Trade co-operation,EU-NAFTA trade agreement,EU-NAFTA trade,EU-NAFTA trade indicators

The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM. Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off.  

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

NAME OF ARTICLE

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

(Retired Principal and Associated with The Indian Econometric Society)

Abstract

In this paper, author endeavors to show the impact of Indo-ASEAN export on trade and financial integration of ASEAN taking intra export share, FDI inflows, REER ,GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN as determinants during 1994-2017 and also tried to show the relationship between Indo-ASEAN export , export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN during the same period through Johansen co-integration test and vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The paper concludes that Indo-ASEAN export has been stipulating at the rate of 13.89% per year during 1994-2017 having three upward structural breaks in 2002, 2005 and 2010 with two co-integrating equations with FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate, and openness of ASEAN. There is long run causality from FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export since co-integrating equation 2 tends to equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 23.52% per year. There is short run causality running from intra-export share of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but other variables have no short run causality. Long run causality was visible from export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but they have no short run causality.

Key words-Indo-ASEAN export, short run causality, long run causality, co-integration, vector error correction model, trade integration

JEL classification –C22,F14,F15,F36

The paper concludes that Indo-ASEAN export has been stipulating at the rate of 13.89% per year during 1994-2017.It has three upward structural breaks in 2002, 2005 and 2010 respectively. Indo-ASEAN export has two co-integrating equations with FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate, and openness of ASEAN during 1994-2017.VECM showed that Indo-ASEAN export influenced negatively to FDI inflows and intra export share of ASEAN insignificantly. On the other hand, Indo-ASEAN export is positively related with REER significantly and positively related with GDP growth rate and openness insignificantly during 1994-2017.Cointegrating equations explained that there is long run causality from FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export since co-integrating equation 2 tends to equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 23.52% per year. There is short run causality running from intra-export share of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but other variables have no short run causality. Bi-directional causality was observed between export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN and there is uni-directional causality from Indo-ASEAN export to export concentration index of ASEAN. Long run causality was visible from export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but they have no short run causality.

Basic Factors influencing Food grain production in Indian States: Panel Co-integration and VECM Analysis.

Basic Factors influencing Food grain production in Indian States: Panel Co-integration and VECM Analysis.

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

ECONOMIC CHALLENGER

NO-21,ISSUE-82,JANUARY -MARCH 2019,P15-34

Abstract

In this paper Author finds the link among the food grain production , gross state domestic product at current prices, net irrigated area, fertilizer used by states, cropping intensity, state fiscal deficit  and state gross capital formation of 27 states in India from 1990-91 to 2015-16  using panel regression analysis, panel co-integration and vector error correction model. It finds positive link among food grain production ,gross state domestic product at current prices, net irrigated area, NPK used by states, cropping intensity and negative relation with state fiscal deficit. Johansen-Fisher test confirmed four co-integrating equations. VECM is stable, normally distributed and non-stationary with problem of autocorrelation. VECM states that there is significant long run association but in co-integrating equations change of food grain production and change of SDP have long run causality and they are moving towards equilibrium with slow speed but change of net irrigated area and change of cropping intensity do not move to equilibrium level because they have no long run causality with the independent variables. On the other hand, there is short run causality running from state fiscal deficit to SDP and cropping intensity only but rest of the variables did not show any short run causality.

Key Words-Food grain production, Panel co-integration, Panel vector error correction, Causality, Wald Test.

JEL classification codes-C12, C23, Q10, Q15, Q18

VII.Conclusion

The paper concludes that one per cent increase in SDP at current prices, net irrigated area, NPK used, cropping intensity, state fiscal deficit and state gross capital formation per year led to 0.177 %,0.7066%,0.0578% and1.5099%, increase in food grain production per year respectively  and decrease of 0.0599% and 0.0159% food grain production per year from 1990-91 to 2015-16 in 27 Indian states in fixed effect panel regression mode. Johansen-Fisher test confirmed three and four co-integrating equations Max Eigen and Trace statistic. VECM is stable, normally distributed and non-stationary with problem of autocorrelation. VECM states that there is significant long run association of food grain production of Indian states with state net irrigated area, utilization of fertilizers of the states, cropping intensity of the states during 1990-91-2015-16. In co-integrating equations change of food grain production and change of SDP have long run causality and they are moving towards equilibrium with slow speed but change of net irrigated area and change of cropping intensity do not move to equilibrium level because they have no long run causality with the independent variables. On the other hand, there is short run causality running from x₅ to x₁ and x₄ only but rest of the variables do not show any short run causality.