DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

MY ARTICLE

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

THEME-II

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract

In this paper,author studied the trends, prospects and determinants of EU-NAFTA  trade during 1990-2016 showing cointegration and vector error corrections of world export share and import shares of EU and NAFTA with their determinants like export and import concentration index,export and import diversification index and trade balance indicator. Moreover, Euro Area’s trade with NAFTA from 1995-2016 was also explained by export and import concentration index and trade correlation indices. The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly with stationary process in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM . Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off. 

JEL codes—C32,F02,F14,F15

Key words – Trade co-operation,EU-NAFTA trade agreement,EU-NAFTA trade,EU-NAFTA trade indicators

The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM. Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off.  

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

NAME OF ARTICLE

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

(Retired Principal and Associated with The Indian Econometric Society)

Abstract

In this paper, author endeavors to show the impact of Indo-ASEAN export on trade and financial integration of ASEAN taking intra export share, FDI inflows, REER ,GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN as determinants during 1994-2017 and also tried to show the relationship between Indo-ASEAN export , export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN during the same period through Johansen co-integration test and vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The paper concludes that Indo-ASEAN export has been stipulating at the rate of 13.89% per year during 1994-2017 having three upward structural breaks in 2002, 2005 and 2010 with two co-integrating equations with FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate, and openness of ASEAN. There is long run causality from FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export since co-integrating equation 2 tends to equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 23.52% per year. There is short run causality running from intra-export share of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but other variables have no short run causality. Long run causality was visible from export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but they have no short run causality.

Key words-Indo-ASEAN export, short run causality, long run causality, co-integration, vector error correction model, trade integration

JEL classification –C22,F14,F15,F36

The paper concludes that Indo-ASEAN export has been stipulating at the rate of 13.89% per year during 1994-2017.It has three upward structural breaks in 2002, 2005 and 2010 respectively. Indo-ASEAN export has two co-integrating equations with FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate, and openness of ASEAN during 1994-2017.VECM showed that Indo-ASEAN export influenced negatively to FDI inflows and intra export share of ASEAN insignificantly. On the other hand, Indo-ASEAN export is positively related with REER significantly and positively related with GDP growth rate and openness insignificantly during 1994-2017.Cointegrating equations explained that there is long run causality from FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export since co-integrating equation 2 tends to equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 23.52% per year. There is short run causality running from intra-export share of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but other variables have no short run causality. Bi-directional causality was observed between export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN and there is uni-directional causality from Indo-ASEAN export to export concentration index of ASEAN. Long run causality was visible from export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but they have no short run causality.

Basic Factors influencing Food grain production in Indian States: Panel Co-integration and VECM Analysis.

Basic Factors influencing Food grain production in Indian States: Panel Co-integration and VECM Analysis.

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

ECONOMIC CHALLENGER

NO-21,ISSUE-82,JANUARY -MARCH 2019,P15-34

Abstract

In this paper Author finds the link among the food grain production , gross state domestic product at current prices, net irrigated area, fertilizer used by states, cropping intensity, state fiscal deficit  and state gross capital formation of 27 states in India from 1990-91 to 2015-16  using panel regression analysis, panel co-integration and vector error correction model. It finds positive link among food grain production ,gross state domestic product at current prices, net irrigated area, NPK used by states, cropping intensity and negative relation with state fiscal deficit. Johansen-Fisher test confirmed four co-integrating equations. VECM is stable, normally distributed and non-stationary with problem of autocorrelation. VECM states that there is significant long run association but in co-integrating equations change of food grain production and change of SDP have long run causality and they are moving towards equilibrium with slow speed but change of net irrigated area and change of cropping intensity do not move to equilibrium level because they have no long run causality with the independent variables. On the other hand, there is short run causality running from state fiscal deficit to SDP and cropping intensity only but rest of the variables did not show any short run causality.

Key Words-Food grain production, Panel co-integration, Panel vector error correction, Causality, Wald Test.

JEL classification codes-C12, C23, Q10, Q15, Q18

VII.Conclusion

The paper concludes that one per cent increase in SDP at current prices, net irrigated area, NPK used, cropping intensity, state fiscal deficit and state gross capital formation per year led to 0.177 %,0.7066%,0.0578% and1.5099%, increase in food grain production per year respectively  and decrease of 0.0599% and 0.0159% food grain production per year from 1990-91 to 2015-16 in 27 Indian states in fixed effect panel regression mode. Johansen-Fisher test confirmed three and four co-integrating equations Max Eigen and Trace statistic. VECM is stable, normally distributed and non-stationary with problem of autocorrelation. VECM states that there is significant long run association of food grain production of Indian states with state net irrigated area, utilization of fertilizers of the states, cropping intensity of the states during 1990-91-2015-16. In co-integrating equations change of food grain production and change of SDP have long run causality and they are moving towards equilibrium with slow speed but change of net irrigated area and change of cropping intensity do not move to equilibrium level because they have no long run causality with the independent variables. On the other hand, there is short run causality running from x₅ to x₁ and x₄ only but rest of the variables do not show any short run causality.

Non Performing Assets and macro economics in India :Panel data analysis by Dr. Debesh Bhowmik

The book contains 13 research papers which were accepted and presented in the 101st conference of Indian economic association in Vellore Institute of Technology during 27th..... 29th December, 2018. All are good research papers. 

I have a paper in this edited volume. The name of  my article is " Non Performing Assets and macro economics in India : Panel Data analysis " from page 1 to 22. 

The  paper concludes that there is long-run causality from npa/advance to GDP and inflation and there is significant short run causality from npa/advance to GDP and from GDP and Inflation to npa/advance in India during 1996..97.....2015...16.And GDP is inversely related with npa/advance.

The study implies that India's high NPA is detrimental to GDP. 

The book is hard bound and printed with good paper. It is useful to every researchers. 

National Seminar in Birla Global University

BIRLA GLOBAL UNIVERSITY,BHUBANESHWAR

NATIONAL SEMINAR HOSTED BY DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS

   ON 

INDIAN ECONOMY:EMERGING ISSUES AND CHALLENGES FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

23-24 NOVEMBER,2018

Decoupling per capita CO₂ emission from GDP per capita in South Asia and Euro Area:Panel Data Analysis

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract

In this paper author analysed decoupling per capita CO₂ emission from per capita GDP in Euro Area and South Asia during 1991-2017. To find the relationship between per capita CO₂ emission in metric ton and GDP per capita  in US$ in current prices during 1991-2017, author used fixed effect panel regression model after verifying the Hausman Test(1978) taking decoupling model. Fisher (1932)-Johansen cointegration test (1991) was used to show cointegration. Johansen (1991) Panel VECM was also used to show long and short run association between CO₂ emission and GDP where Wald test(1943) was verified in the system equations.Data of per capita CO₂ emission in metric ton and GDP per capita in US$ in current prices for Euro Area and South Asia from 1991 to 2017 were taken from the World Bank.

 The paper concludes that the fixed effect panel regression analysis showed that there is absolute decoupling in income elasticity ,no decoupling in square of income elasticity , absolute decoupling cubic income elasticity, and relative decoupling in income elasticity to the power four respectively during 1991-2017 in Euro Area and South Asia. Fisher-Johansen panel cointegration test confirm two cointegrating equations both of which are moving to equilibrium but one is significant.There is a long run association between per capita CO₂ emission and cubic function of per capita GDP of South Asia and Euro Area during 1991-2017.The speeds of adjustment of error corrections are 8.86% and 161.6% per annum respectively. There is no short run association between per capita CO2 emission and per capita GDP in different order. In VECM, in income elasticity of the two period lag there is absolute decoupling which is decreasing. Square of Income elasticity of two periods lag ensure relative decoupling which is dwindling. Lastly, cube of income elasticity of two period lag confirm absolute decoupling whose value is also falling. These imply that the relation between per capita CO₂ emission and GDP per capita in South Asia and Euro Area during 1991-2017 satisfy EKC hypothesis. 

Key words—per capita CO₂ emission, GDP per capita, decoupling, panel cointegration, panel VECM,short run causality,long run causality

JEL code classification----- C14,C23,C32,Q01, Q38, Q43,Q52,Q53,Q5

The paper concludes that the fixed effect panel regression analysis showed that there is absolute decoupling in income elasticity ,no decoupling in square of income elasticity , absolute decoupling cubic income elasticity, and relative decoupling in income elasticity to the power four respectively during 1991-2017 in Euro Area and South Asia. Fisher-Johansen panel cointegration test confirm two cointegrating equations both of which are moving to equilibrium but one is significant.There is a long run association between per capita CO₂ emission and cubic function of per capita GDP of South Asia and Euro Area during 1991-2017.The speeds of adjustment of error corrections are 8.86% and 161.6% per annum respectively. There is no short run association between per capita CO2 emission and per capita GDP in different order. In VECM, in income elasticity of the two period lag there is absolute decoupling which is decreasing. Square of Income elasticity of two periods lag ensures relative decoupling which is dwindling. Lastly, cube of income elasticity of two period lag confirm absolute decoupling whose value is also falling. These imply that the relation between per capita CO₂ emission and GDP per capita in South Asia and Euro Area during 1991-2017 satisfy EKC hypothesis. 

Econometric Test on Growth-Unemployment Nexus in India

VOLUME-2,ISSUE-2,AUGUST-31,2018,Page-58-76

ARTICLE
Econometric Test on Growth-Unemployment Nexus in India

                                                        Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

                                    http://journals.umt.edu.pk/sbe/jqm

                                                         

                                                                          ABSTRACT

       

Generally, the economic growth boosts employment growth rate

but empirical evidences do not support these views in all cases.

In this paper, the author endeavors to relate growth with

unemployment rate during 1991-2016 in India using regression

models, Granger Causality test, Johansen Cointegration test and

Vector Error Correction model. Impulse response functions were fitted for testing stationary. Unit circle was found out to check stability of the Vector Error Correction. Output gap is measured by deducting Hodrick-Prescott Filtered trend value from the actual output.Unemployment gap is measured by deducting natural growth rate of unemployment from the actual unemployment rate. The data on Indian unemployment rate, growth rate and GDP from 1991 to 2016 have been taken from the World Bank. The paper concludes that growth-unemployment nexus is significantly negative at 10% level. Their relation is not causal but is co-integrated at 10% level. VECM is stable and non-stationary where in one error correction process the speed of adjustment is high and significant. The relation between output gap and unemployment is negative and insignificant. They are not co-integrated and have no causality. The nexus between output gap and unemployment gap is significantly negative but the relation has no causality and co-integration. VAR model is a good fit where variables are related with previous periods. The relation between growth and unemployment gap is insignificantly negative and co-integrated where VECM is stable but non-stationary and one speed of adjustment is significantly fast and other is insignificantly slow in error correction process.

Renewable Energy Sources and Environment Protection

CHAPTER - 7

Linkage between Global Co2 Emission and

World GDP

Dr. Debesh Bhowmik

Retired Principal,

Associated with International Institute

for Development Studies, Kolkata, India.

Abstract

In this paper author attempted to verify the relationship between global CO2

emission and global GDP ,and between CO2 emission per capita and GDP

growth or GDP per capita growth rate during 1960-2015 through double log

regression model,Granger Cusality test,Johansen cointegration model and by

vector error correction model and impulse response functions.The trend of

emission and per capita emission are shown by semi-log regression model.The

structural breaks of emission is shown by Bai-Perron model. The paper

concludes that the global co2 emission has been rising at the rate of 2.19% per

year and per capita co2 emission is rising at the rate of 0.58% per annum

significantly during 1960-2015.Both of them are stationary,stable and

convergent according to ARIMA(1,1,1) model and they do not belong to random

walk hypothesis. Global CO2 emission during 1960-2015 contains four upward

structural breaks in 1968,1976,1988, and 2004 respectively and per capita

emission has two upward structural breaks in 1969 and 2004 respectively.World

CO2 emission is positively related significantly with global GDP,and GDP per

capita during 1960-2015.World CO2 emission per capita is positively related

significantly with world GDP,GDP growth per capita during the same

period.But global GDP growth is negatively related with global CO2 emission

significant during 1960-2015.There are no cointegration between world GDP

and world CO2 emission and CO2 emission per capita but there is one

CHAPTER - 7

94 Renewable Energy Sources & Environment Protection

cointegrating vector in each between global GDP growth ,global CO2 emission

and world CO2 emission per capita during 1960-2015 repectively.Both of them

have stable,stationary and convergent VEC model whose impulse response

functions are converging towards zero.

Keywords: world CO2 emission,world per capita CO2 emission,world GDP,

world GDP per capita,world GDP growth.

JEL- O13, O40, O44, P28, P48, Q43, Q53, Q56,

I. Introduction

During1960-2015, emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion have tripled and the

main actors have changed. In 1960 the contribution of emissions by China was

around 9%, 1% for India and 10% for rest of the world. By 2015, their

contribution was 24%, 5% and 23% respectively, and China becomes the largest

emitter in the world. Most previous studies of CO2 – Income relationship aim

either to verify and estimate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis

of economic inequity or to describe the long-run equilibrium relationship

between GHG emissions and energy consumption, or GDP, or other. The first

application of Kuznets Curve to environmental studies is done by Grossman and

Krueger (1991, 1993, 1995) followed by Holtz-Eakin (1995) , or more recently

by Perman and Stern (2003), McKitrick and Strazicich (2005) , Aldy (2006) and

Dinda (2004). The results of these studies are controversial about EKC’s

hypothesis, giving opposite conclusions. Dinda and Coondoo (2006) performed

cointegration analysis between per capita CO2 emissions and per capita GDP on

a panel of 88 countries and conclude that a long-run relationship exists between

the variables. The econometric approach which is usually used to estimate the

relationship between GHG emissions and economic growth, as well as to test

EKC hypothesis, has been criticized in academic literature on many points. The

countries with the same level of economic development may have different

relationship between emissions and economic growth for many reasons. The

global CO2 emission scenario is clear since CO2 emission is increasing along

with global GDP or GDP growth rate. The relationship does not behave like EKC

hypothesis. This paper is an empirical attempt to show the relationship clearly

through econometric analysis.

Renewable Energy Sources & Environment Protection 95

II. LITERATURE REVIEW

There are huge economic literatures on climate change and environment

protection and with related themes. I have discussed some of the researches on

the subjects that are correlated with my article.

Azomahou, Laisney and Van(2005) examined the empirical relation between

CO2 emissions per capita and GDP per capita during the period 1960-1996, using

a panel of 100 countries. Estimation results show that this relationship is upward

sloping. Choi, Heshmati,& Cho(2010) took data (1971-2006) from China (an

emerging market), Korea (a newly industrialized country), and Japan (a

developed country) and estimated EKC which showed different temporal

patterns. China shows an N-shaped curve while Japan has a U-shaped curve.

Tiwari (2011) found that environmental degradation (i.e., CO2 emissions)

Granger causes economic growth in the long-run in India during 1971-2005.

Arouri, Youssef, M'Henni, & Rault(2012) taking 12 Middle East and North

African Countries (MENA) data over the period 1981–2005 showed that real

GDP exhibits a quadratic relationship with CO2 emissions for the region as a

whole. Farhani (2012) verified 15 MENA countries covering the annual period

1973-2008 and found that there is a unidirectional causality running from GDP

and CO2 emissions to EC. The results indicate that an increase in energy

consumption may lead to increase in the income and the CO2 emission. Lean &

Smyth(2013) examined in ASEAN countries over the period 1980 to 2006. The

long-run estimates indicate that there is a statistically significant positive

association between electricity consumption and emissions and a non-linear

relationship between emissions and real output, consistent with the

Environmental Kuznets Curve. Chueh(2014) showed that the emissions of

carbon dioxide may not depend on the growth of per capita GDP using the

hierarchical clustering approach to cluster 36 countries during 1990-2011. Alam

(2014) examined the relationship between economic growth (GDP per capita)

and CO2 emissions of Bangladesh based on the environmental Kuznets curve

hypothesis, using World Bank data over 1972-2010 and found that the existence

of EKC “U” shape does not hold. Antonakakis , Chatziantoniou and Filis(2015)

took data of 106 countries during 1971-2011 which revealed that the effects of

the various types of energy consumption on economic growth and emissions are

heterogeneous on the various groups of countries. Moreover, causality between

total economic growth and energy consumption is bidirectional, and the

continued process of growth aggravates the greenhouse gas emissions

phenomenon. Omri(2015) examines the nexus between CO2 emissions, energy

96 Renewable Energy Sources & Environment Protection

consumption and economic growth using simultaneous-equations models with

panel data of 14 MENA countries over the period 1990-2011. His results show

that there exists bidirectional causal relationship between energy consumption

and economic growth and there exists bidirectional causal relationship between

economic growth and CO2 emissions for the region as a whole. Muhyidin,

Saifullah,& Fei(2015) showed that CO2 emission, income development level,

total energy usage within the country and industrial production index growth to

be cointegrated thus indicating a long-run cointegrating relationship among all

the series in Malaysia during 1970 to 2012. Mesagan(2015) studied in Nigeria

during 1970-2013 and verified that growth relates positively with CO2 emission

using VECM.In China, during 1990–2012, Wang ,Li , Fang , & Zhou(2016)

found that surprisingly, no such causal relation was found between economic

growth and CO2 emissions. Mir and Storm(2016) verified that CO2 emissions

are monotonically increasing with per capita GDP for 40 countries (and 35

industries) during 1995-2007. Magazzino(2016) showed that the predominance

of the “growth hypothesis” emerges in three GCC countries (Kuwait, Oman, and

Qatar), since energy use drives the real GDP. Moreover, only for Saudi Arabia a

clear long-run relation has not been discovered. Finally, the results of the

variance decompositions and impulse response functions broadly confirm their

previous empirical findings. Their results significantly reject the assumption that

energy is neutral for growth during 1960-2013. Xiongling (2016) suggests that

there is evidence that economic development can improve environmental

degradation in the long-run and economic growth may have an adverse effect on

the CO2 emissions in China during 1961-2010. Cederborg & Snöbohm(2016)

conducted on 69 industrial countries as well as 45 poor countries using crosssectional

data and conclude that there is a relationship between economic growth

and environmental degradation, the impact of this relationship is however

different. The empirical result of the cross-sectional study implies there is in fact

a relationship between per capita GDP and per capita carbon dioxide emissions.

The correlation is positive. Ahmada, Azreen, Zulkiflib, Aziz,Hassanc,Yaseer &

Abdoh(2016) found strong positive relationship between GDP and energy

consumption during 1980-2011 in Malaysia.

III. Objectives of study

This study endeavours to verify the empirical relationship through econometric

models between world CO2 emission in kilo ton and world GDP(current

US$),world CO2 emission per capita in metric ton with world GDP and GDP per

capita (in current US$ ) and with their growth rates respectively during 1960-

2015 showing the empirical evidences in several countries.

VII. Concluding remarks

The paper concludes that the global co2 emission has been rising at the rate of

2.19% per year and per capita co2 emission is rising at the rate of 0.58% per

annum significantly during 1960-2015.Both of them are stationary, stable and

convergent according to ARIMA(1,1,1) model and they do not belong to random

walk hypothesis. Global CO2 emission during 1960-2015 contains four upward

structural breaks in 1968, 1976, 1988, and 2004 respectively and per capita

emission has two upward structural breaks in 1969 and 2005 respectively. World

CO2 emission is positively related significantly with global GDP, and GDP per

capita during 1960-2015.World CO2 emission per capita is positively related

significantly with world GDP,GDP growth per capita during the same period.

But global GDP growth is negatively related with global CO2 emission

significant during 1960-2015.There are no cointegration between world GDP and

world CO2 emission and CO2 emission per capita but there is one cointegrating

vector in each between global GDP growth , global CO2 emission and world CO2

emission per capita during 1960-2015 repectively. Both of them have stable,

stationary and convergent VEC model whose impulse response functions are

converging towards zero.

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