INTERNATIONAL
SEMINAR ON INDIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT YEARS:A MACROECONOMIC
PERSPECTIVE ON 25JULY,2017
ORGANISED
BY
DEPARTMENT
OF ECONOMICS,BARRACKPORE RATRAGURU SURENDRANATH COLLEGE
IN
COLABORATION WITH
DEPARTMENT
OF ECONOMICS ,WESTBENGAL STATE UNIVERSITY
CENTRE
FOR TRAINING AND RESEaRCH IN PUBLIC FINANCE AND POLICY ,
CENTRE
FOR STUDIES IN SOCIAL SCIENCE,CALCUTTA
After inauguration welcome address was given by
Principal Dr.Manojit Roy showed appreciation on the theme chosen by the
college.Dr.Tusher Kanti Nandy,(CTRPFP) tried give a brief idea of the centre
where research,training on public finance under ministry of finance have been
conducted.Prof Kausik Gupta of Calcutta University gives inaugural lecture on “Macroeconomic
perspectives of Indian Economic development In recent years:An overview” where
he emphasized on inclusive growth,changes in growth in several phases,eg,fall
due to corruption, and rise due to social sector development,He noted Sen and
Dreze and Bhagavati and Panagaiya in respect of growth and development.He gave
reasons for jobless growth in the phases
2008-2013.He tried to show real balance effect due to demonetization,and the
reduction of growth.Govt.failed to control black money and less availability
internet for digital economy.He also raised some questions about GST in context
specification and rates and asked whether it is related with demonetization.Prof.Basab
Chowdhury ,Vice Chancellor of WBSU, welcome all and said some tides to read
economics however he is not glad why students are unwilling to read economics
whereas it is related to real life and can solve common problems for all.Prof.Sushil
Halder,of Jadavpur University addressed on “Gender and Economic Development in
India:Some emerging issues” where he noted that is growth gender nutral,and
discussed about gender gap ratio,HDI,GDI,GEM,and reviewing literature he showed
that over all sex ratio trend is declining and then rising and it is heterogeneous for states in
India.He showed it by comparative studies.He used LSDV model with dummy
variable to verify this notion.He also showed female work participation
rate,poverty and child ratio and found significant results.
In the special lecture session,Dr.Debabrata
Mukhopadhyaya of WBSU,gave lecture on effects of demonetization on Indian
capital market showing structural breaks and nonstationarity in share indices
in India.Even he showed changing pattern of autocorrelation structure and
verified bank indices nonstationary after demonetization.Prof.Tusher Kanti
Nandy of CTRPFP,lucidly explain the concepts,classification and system of GST
in India.He explained the rates,calculation of rates,exemption
limit,distribution of turnover,finance commission views,on GST rates and
implications.Dr.Jayanta Dwibedi of BKC college in his paper “Fiscal
Performances in Indian States” explains the role of centre and state on the
fiscal deficit where he emphasis on revenue deficit.He explained the distribution
of tax revenue among the states where role of finance commission is vital.He
worked out a model using transfer functions where he intended to show that poor
states should get higher tax revenue than the richer .Prof.Anindya Biswas of Spring Hill University,USA said his lucid
lecture on “Real sector and financial sector of the economy:An Overview”where
he explains marginal value of wealth,inflation gap,output gap,potential gap,and
tried to verify it in US economy and he endeavours to find Taylors Macro rule
in near future.
There were two parallel technical sessions each
contain 8 papers.
In technical session-1
1]Anadi Sarker-THKJain College-“A Study on
development of rural areas through khadi sector in India”
2]Ashoke Biswas-APC College-“India’s manufacturing
sector :Challenging in Make in India Campaign”
3]Rajyasri Roy-Phd scholar of Calcutta University-“Are
Informal workers more poverty striken than the formal workers in India”
4] Dipak Biswas-Swami Niswambalananda Girl’s
College-“Role of NABARD on SHG Bank linkage programme for Indian Economic
Development: study”
5]Dr.Debesh Bhowmik-Retired Principal-“Econometric
analysis of India’s International GDP share during 1960-2015”
6]Anurag Banerjee-MPhil Scholar-University of
Calcutta,-“Determinants of the level capitalization of Indian commercial banks”
7]Mainak Bhattacharjee-Heritage College-“Globalisation
and economic development:A study on India vis-Ã -vis world”
8]Avik Chattopadhyaya-Jaipuria College-“Agricultural
Insurance :A way towards economic growth as well as prevailing difficulties in
West Bengal”
Session-2
1]Sangita Roy-Research Scholar-Viswa-Bharati-“Trade liberalization,skilled-unskilled
labour and wage distribution”
2]Sushrita Mukherjee-Taki Govt.College-“Demonetisation
in India:An attempt towards achieving a modern,digital and cashless economy”
3]Pallabi Jalasaria-JRF Research Scholar-Calcutta
University-“Efficiency analysis of Indian commercial Banks in Post reform
period”
4]Moumita Das-BRS College and Soumyadip
Chattopadhyaya-Viswa Bharati-“An analysis of fiscal decentralization to Urban
local governments in West Bengal”
5]Gobindalal Mandal(NewAlipore College)and Atanu
Ghosh(NewAlipore College)-“Generation of tax revenue in India-A tool for
economic development”
6]Archita Pramanik and Mauli Sanyal(New Alipore
College)-“Education in Jeopardy:The effect of FRBM Since inception”
7]Dipankar Das and Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhyay(WBSU)-“FDI
inflows and Military expenditure:A study across the emerging market economies”
8] Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhayay and Arun Kumar
Mandal(WBSU)-“Infrastructure development and changing market penetration of
consumer durables in rural India”
An
Econometric analysis of world GDP share of India during 1960-2015
Dr.Debesh
Bhowmik(Retired Principal)
Abstract
In this paper, author attempted
to analyse India’s international GDP share during 1960-2015 with econometric
models taking the data from World Bank. Semilog linear trend model, exponential
trend model were used to find trend of Growth. Variance ratio test was used to
show random walk. AR(1) model was used to show stationary, convergence and
oscillations. ARIMA (1,1,1) forecast model was tested for stationary of the series. Bai-Perron(2003)
model explained to show structural breaks and Hodrick-Prescott Filter(1997 )
model minimized the cycles for
smoothness of trend of GDP share.
The paper concludes
that India’s international GDP share has been declining at the rate of 0.459%
per year during 1960-2015 and has been decreasing exponentially at the rate of
0.259% per year significantly. The variance ratio test confirmed that the
series follows random walk. AR(1) process is significant, stable, converging
and stationary. Forecast for 2035 of AR(1) model is also a good fit. ARIMA(1,1,1) forecast
model showed stable although non-stationary and likely to move downward towards
2035.Its AC and PAC are not declining and impulse response functions are
diverging. Bai-Perron (2003) test assured that the GDP share has three
structural breaks in 1968,1988 and 2006 respectively. The first two are
downward and the third one is upward. H.P.Filter (1997)model reduced the cycle
into a smooth trend which showed a clear tough during the study period. The GDP
share contains cyclical fluctuations where 4peaks and 6 toughs are clearly visible.
Key
words-
International GDP share, exponential growth, structural break, non-stationary,
H.P.Filter
JEL-N15,O21,O24,O57,O10
