BOOK REVIEW

BOOK REVIEW

STUDIES ON ECONOMETRIC APPLICATIONS

by DEBESH BHOWMIKSYNERGY BOOKS,NEW

DELHI,

DEVELOPMENT WITH DISPARITY IN INDIA

DEVELOPMENT WITH DISPARITY IN INDIA

Edited by Dr Subrata Kumar Ray and Dr.Gopal Chandra Mandal

 (Foreword by Prof Biswajit Chatterjee,Jadavpur University,Kolkata)

Kunal Books,NewDelhi,Price-1195/-,ppxiii+320

This book has been released in the Mid Year Seminar of Bengal Economic Association on 12/9/2019 at Prabhu Jagat Bandhu College,Andul,Howrah,India.The book consists of 21 valuable papers which were contributed by eminent scholars and academicians in West Bengal and abroad.The selected papers were presented in the said seminar on 12/9/2019 at the college.The contributors are Prof Biswajit Chatterjee-Development with Disparity,Asim K.Karmaker and Sovik Mukherjee-Globalisation,Inequality and Poverty:Special Reference to India and China in Contemporary Context.,Debesh Bhowmik-Disparity in NSDP per capita in Indian States, and many others. 

Debesh Bhowmik-Disparity in Net State Domestic Product Per Capita in Indian States.(58-74) 

STUDIES ON ECONOMETRIC APPLICATIONS---BOOK RELEASE

STUDIES ON ECONOMETRIC APPLICATIONS

----By Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

SYNERGY BOOKS INDIA

24/2400,Ansari Road,ND-110002

Price-1995/- pp xi+301

This book has been released in the Mid Year Seminar of Bengal Economic Association on 12/9/2019 at Prabhu Jagat Bandhu College,Andul ,Howrah,West Bengal,India.It contains 13 chapters which showed the applications of recent economic issues such as,human development,growth-unemployment nexus,fiscal deficit,sectoral employment,CO2 emissions,growth rate of GDP,social sector,growth-HDI linkage,world GDP share ,Saving function,foreign direct, Keynesian saving function etc.The foreword of the book was written by Prof. Ravinder Rena of North-West University,South Africa.

Food grain production ,agricultural growth,irrigation,agricultural credit and rural poverty:An analysis

Food grain production,agricultural growth,irrigation,agricultural credit and rural poverty:An analysis.

                                                               by Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Political Economy Journal of India,Vol-28,Issues 1&2,January-June,2019,1-18. Chandigarh.

DECOUPLING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GDP IN ASEAN-8: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

DECOUPLING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GDP IN ASEAN-8: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

by

DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK

INDIAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS

VOLUME-1,NO-1,1-19,2019

Decoupling Co2 Emissions From GDP in Asean-8:

A Panel Data Analysis

Debesh Bhowmik

Retired Principal and Associated with Indian Economic Association and The Indian Econometric Society,

Life member, Bengal Economic Association, Economic Association of Bihar

Email:

debeshbhowmik@rediffmail.com; debeshbhowmik269@gmail.com

Received: 5 January 2019; Revised: 15 February 2019; Accepted: 10 April 2019; Publication: 5 May 2019

Abstract: 

In this paper author attempted to analyze the decoupling hypothesis of CO2 emission from GDP in ASEAN-8 countries during 1980-2016 in panel data which were collected from the World Bank with the assistance of the econometric models of panel fixed effect regression model, Johansen (1988)Fisher (1932) panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model respectively for long run relationship and applied the Wald test (1943) for short run causality. The VEC residual normality test of Hansen Doornik

(1994) residual correlation was used to test normality. After verifying the Hausman test (1978) in the random effect model author used fixed effect panel regression model and found that there is no decoupling because the elasticity is positive and greater than or equal to +1. 0 with respect to GDP, there is absolute decoupling when the elasticity is zero or negative with respect to square of GDP, and there is relative decoupling with respect to

the cube of GDP during the survey period. All are significant at 5% level. Thus, it proves the existence of inverted U shaped Environment Kuznets Curve. Residual cross section dependence test confirmed that there is cross section dependence in the statistic of Breusch Pagan LM(1979) and Pesaran CD (2015) which were rejected at null hypothesis of no cross section dependence (correlation) in residuals. The coefficient diagnostic test assured

that the confidence ellipse is significant at 5% level. The cointegration test suggests that there is long run association among CO2 emissions and the GDP of the ASEAN-8 having two cointegrating equations given by Trace and Max Eigen statistic. From the VECM1 of the system equation, cointegrating

equation2 has been approaching towards equilibrium which implies there is long run causality from GDP of previous period, square

of GDP of previous period, and cube of GDP of previous period to the change of CO2 emissions although it is not significant at 5% level. The speed of adjustment is 0. 73% per year. The similar findings have been observed from other estimated VECM of the system equations. But, there is no short run causality from GDP to CO2 emission in ASEAN-8. Besides, there are both short run and long run causality from GDP, square of GDP and cube of GDP of previous periods to GDP of the given period. In general, VECM is stable but non-stationary, non-normal and serially correlated.

Key Words: CO2 emission, GDP, decoupling, panel cointegration,

panel VECM, short run causality, long run causality

JEL Classification codes: C14, C23, C32, Q01, Q38, Q43, Q52, Q53, Q5

Indian Journal of Applied Economics and Business

Vol. 1, No. 1, 2019

ARF INDIA

Academic Open Access Publishing

www. arfjournals. com

Author

The Impacts of India’s Export to African Blocs: Panel Data Analysis

The Impacts of India’s Export to African Blocs: Panel Data Analysis

by Debesh Bhowmik,

Journal of Quantitative Finance and Economics , 2019, 1(1), 1-23, PDF Full-text 
Recived:05/01/2019, Revised: 05/01/2019, Accepted : 10/04/2019, Publication: 05/05/2019

Abstract:

The paper studied the impacts of India’s export to the seven African trading blocs during 19952016 especially on GDP growth rate, FDI inflows, inflation rate, Real Effective Exchange Rate, import concentration index and openness of the blocs which directly or indirectly help to speed up the process of trade and financial integration of the African blocs taking data from UNCTAD through BaiPerron model(2003), Fixed effect panel regression model ,the Hausman test (1978, Fisher(1932)Johansen(1991) , Kao(1999) and Pedroni(1999) cointegration models. Vector Error Correction and Wald test(1943)were applied to test causality. The empirical results showed that the growth rate of India’s export to seven African blocs namely, CEMAC, COMESA ,EAC,ECCAS,SACU, SADC and WAEMU have been increasing at the rate of 0.130.19 per cent per annum during 19952017 which have significant upward structural breaks . The fixed effect panel regression assured that one per cent increase in GDP growth rate,FDI inflows, inflation rate, of African blocs led to 0.101 per cent , 0.1185 per cent , 0.1839 increase in India’s export to African bloc blocs but one per cent increase in openness ,REERand import concentration index in African blocs led to 3.586 per cent decrease , 1.15% decrease , 1.388 per cent decrease in Indian export to African blocs during 19952017. Panel cointegration showed that there are at least five cointegrating vectors among them. There are insignificant long run causalities from import concentration index and openness index of 7 African blocs to GDP growth rate and REER .There is short term causality from REER of the African blocs to Indian export to their blocs. And there are short term causalities [i] from import concentration of African blocs to GDP growth rate of African blocs,[ii] from openness of African blocs to inflation rate of African blocs, and [iii] from FDI inflows of African blocs to REER of African blocs respectively. This research may find out to formulate policies on macro variables how to accelerate trade and financial integration of African blocs with India.

Key words: African blocs, India’s exports, panel cointegration, panel vector error correction, short run causality, long run causality,

JEL classification codes: C33, F14, F15, F40, P33

Introduction

There are almost 14 regional economic communities in Africa in which full economic union was satisfied in UMA, CEMAC, ECCAS, EAC, ECOWAS, CEPGAL, SADC and UEMOA, customs union was satisfied in COMESA,SACU and UEMOA and free trade area was established in SADC and COMESA. The blocs are trying to hike their intra trade shares and macro convergence. Even they have been following Abuja Treaty of 1991 to form African Economic Community through six phases of targets in which 202328 is the sixth phase where complete political, economic and monetary union with a single currency and a pan African Parliament would be achieved.

Economic Commission of Africa sets various targets in every field to realize the Obuja Treaty.The success stories of African blocs outweighed the failures during last two decades which were examined empirically by Bhowmik (2014) lucidly. The African Free Trade Zone (AFTZ), also known as the African Free Trade Area, was announced at the EACSADCCOMESA Summit in October 2008. In May 2012, the agreement was extended to include ECOWAS, ECCAS and AMU to operationalise an African Free Trade Zone by 2018. A breakthrough in Africa’s journey towards regional and continental integration was achieved when the Heads of State and Government of COMESA EAC SADC met on 10 June 2015 in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, to launch the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA). Even, the AfCFTA provides an important opportunity for the African countries in an increasingly globalised world. The elimination of tariffs in goods and services will help in boosting economic growth of the African countries, transform their economies and achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs).The integration agenda of SADC has also been strengthened through the Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan which is a comprehensive 15 year strategic roadmap. This plan not only boosts regional economic integration but also leads to the addressing of the socioeconomic issues in this region. Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation, Team 9,and Pan Africa enetwork aimed at building institutional and human capacity as well as enabling skills and knowledge transfer in the IndoAfrican ties.Indian businesses are active across geographic spaces and sectors in Africa.They are deeply engaged in agribusiness,  engineering,construction,film distribution, cement,plastics and ceramics manufacturing, advertising, marketing,pharmaceuticals and telecommunications respectively. The presence of India Inc. in the continent can be loosely divided into three categories ,namely,business set up by members of the diaspora,large state owned for private MNCs and New SMEs set up investors in search of business opportunities.

IndoAfrican Framework for Strategic Cooperation identified significant areas of cooperation, such as,agriculture, infrastructure, health, blue economy and renewable energy. CII stressed the needs for Business to Government dialogue both in India and Africa which can fulfill threefold

An empirical study on the social sector development of Tamil Nadu.

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik(2019):An Empirical Study on the social sector development of Tamil Nadu

ECONOMIC CHALLENGER,NO-21,ISSUE-84,JULY-SEPTEMBER,2019,Page-3-18

www.economicchallenger.net

CHARACTERISTICS OF MACRO-ECONOMICS AND INDIA'S EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES SINCE INDEPENDENCE

by

DEBESH BHOWMIK

BUSINESS STUDIES ,VOLUME-XXII,NO-1&2,JANUARY & JULY,1999,1-17

Link

www.debeshbhowmik.weebly.com

(home-more-download)

DECOUPLING CO2 EMISSIONS IN NORDIC COUNTRIES:PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

SUMY STATE UNIVERSITY ,UKRAINE

JOURNAL-SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES,VOL-3,ISSUE-2,2019,Page-15-30

ARTICLE

DECOUPLING CO2 EMISSIONS IN NORDIC COUNTRIES:PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

AUTHOR

Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

LINK-http://armgpublishing.sumdu.edu.ua/journals/sec/current-issue-of-sec

http://doi.org/10.21272/sec.3(2).15-30.2019

Impact of Indo-ASEAN Import on ASEAN Trade and Financial Integration

FDI and unemployment in ASEAN

RECENT TRENDS IN MANAGEMENT

Editors-Wendrila Biswas and Dr.Debarun Chakraborty

Associate Editor-Soumya Kanti Dhara

ABHIJEET PUBLICATION,NEWDELHI-110002,www.abhijeetpublications.com

Price-1430/- , page-283+

The book contains 24 articles explaining human resource issues and practices,digital marketing,stock market,foreign direct investment,financial performance of companies,gender studies,and so on.

My article:

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik-The Nexus  between foreign direct investment inflows and unemployment rate in ASEAN:Panel data analysis.pp 62-76

Abstract

The Nexus between Foreign Direct Investment Inflows and Unemployment Rate in ASEAN:Panel Data Analysis

Dr.DebeshBhowmik (Former Principal and Associated with Lincoln University College,Malaysia)

Abstract

In this paper,the author attempted to show the econometric relationship between the unemployment rate and foreign direct investment inflows of the ASEAN-10 during 1991-2017 through panel regression model,panelcointegration test and panel vector error correction model. The paper concludes that one per cent increase in foreign direct investment per year led to 0.0442 per cent decrease in unemployment rate per year significantly.The foreign direct investment inflows and unemployment rate is cointegrated. There is long run causality between unemployment rate and foreign direct investment inflows in ASEAN-10 during 1991-2017.But there is no short run and long run causality from FDI inflows to unemployment rate.

Key Words- Foreign direct investment inflows,unemploymentrate,panelcointegration,panel vector error correction,short run causality,long run causality

JEL Classification Codes-C22,E24,F21

Conclusion

The paper concludes that one per cent increase in foreign direct investment per year led to 0.0442 per cent decrease in unemployment rate per year significantly in ASEAN during 1991-2017.The foreign direct investment inflows and unemployment rate is cointegrated.There is long run causality between unemployment rate and foreign direct investment inflows in ASEAN-10 during 1991-2017.But there is no short run and long run causality from FDI inflows to unemployment rate in ASEAN-10.Although the vector error correction model is stable and nonstationary.

BANKING CRISES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA

 ARTICLE 3-BANKING CRISES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO INDIA

BY  Dr.Debesh Bhowmik ,PAGE 35-60 

EMERGING ISSUES IN INDIAN BANKING :PERFORMANCE,CHALLENGES AND REFORM

--EDITED BY Dr.ASIM K.KARMAKAR,Dr.MOU ROY,Dr.SAMARJIT DAS

Shandilya Publications,NewDelhi,www.shandilyapublications.com,price 1150/


The book contains 10 important articles on performance of Indian banks,banking reforms,banking crises,systematic risk management,financial sector development,profit frontier public sector banks,credit concentration,micro credit,and architecture of IFRS in banking sector.The paper writers are scholars of India.

I have a paper on  Banking crises with special reference to India which analysed the historical evidences of banking crises since 18^th century in the world as well as in the Indian economy. The causes and impact of the crises were given sufficiently and the wave of crises was shown by capital inflows and number of countries. World wide loss for banking crises was exemplified. Author examined panel regression,cointegration and vector error correction between NPA/advance and GDP of India during 1996-97-2015-16 in six categories of Indian banks and found negative relation .They are cointegrated and VECM is stable and nonstationary with significant error correction process. Government of India and Reserve Bank of India had already implemented some effective policies to curb NPA and recovery of bad loans and also shut down 10 public sector loss making banks in India with closer of chit funds which were proved as fraud.

Key Words-banking crises,panic,wave,capital inflows,non-performing assets,Gross Domestic Product,gross advances,panel regression,panel cointegration,panel vector error correction.

JEL classification-C22,C23,C52,C53,E44,E51,G21,G24

FACTORS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN ASEAN:PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Journal of Lincoln University College ,Malaysia 

                                                          International Journal on Recent Trends in Business and Tourism (IJRTBT) ISSN 2550-1526 (Online) Email: info@ijrtbt.org 

Copyright © 2017-18 - All Rights Reserved - ijrtbt.org

            Volume 3 Issue 1 2019, Page

6.FACTORS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN ASEAN: PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS 
page - 
Debesh Bhowmik 
HTML | PDF

FACTORS OF HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX IN ASEAN: PANEL COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Debesh Bhowmik

Indian Economic Association (IEA) & The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), India

Corresponding Author's Email: debeshbhowmik269@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

In this paper, the author tried to relate HDI (Human Development Index) with GDP (Gross Domestic Product), education expenditure, health expenditure and unemployment rate in ASEAN-9 during 1990-2016 with fixed effect on panel regression, Fisher-Johansen cointegration and panel VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) respectively. The author found that one percent increase in GDP, education expenditure, and unemployment rate per year led to 0.105% increase, 0.028% increase and 0.027% decrease in HDI per year significantly and one percent increase in health expenditure led to 0.0124% increase in HDI insignificantly in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) during 1990-2016. Panel cointegration suggested that there are three cointegrating equations in which two are moving towards equilibrium. In panel VECM, it was found that-

2016. There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the Human Development Index (HDI) of the ASEAN during 1990-2016.
2017. There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the educational expenditure % of GDP of the ASEAN during 1990-2016.

• There is also a significant short run association among education expenditure on GDP, from HDI on education expenditure and from GDP on unemployment rate of ASEAN during 1990-2016.

Keywords: Human Development Index, Gross Domestic Product, Fixed Effect Regression, Panel Cointegration, Panel Vector Error Correction

INTRODUCTION

ASEAN is one of the leading regional trading blocs in Asia as well as in the world, but majority of its members are facing low GDP per capita and HDI value. Poverty and unemployment problems of ASEAN are randomly hampering the development process where both physical and human capital is suffering. Human capital as a function of growth through improvement in education and skill development and with high productivity should be a great concern in the ASEAN region. Human competitiveness index of ASEAN region is not satisfactory in the world economy. Even in the era of globalization and liberalization the human development factor is not given prior importance. The indicators of human development were not properly nourished. Therefore, the transformation of the economy through human development was underutilized. ASEAN as a single market for the goods, services, investment, skilled labor, free capital flows in accelerating economic integration process, intra and inter-competitiveness of human skill and productivity through human development. It is necessary because Lucas (1988) in his endogenous growth theory emphasized investment in human capital more directly and linked it to long term rates of economic growth. Sen (1999) argued that standard of living of a society should be judged not by the average level of income but by people’s capabilities to lead the life they value. On the one hand, economic growth provides the resources to permit sustained improvement in human development. On the other hand, sustained improvement in the quality of human capital is an important contribution to economic growth.

CONCLUSION

The paper concludes that fixed effect panel regression showed one percent increase in GDP, education expenditure, and unemployment rate per year led to 0.105% increase, 0.028% increase and 0.027% decrease in HDI per year significantly and one percent increase in health expenditure led to 0.0124% increase in HDI insignificantly in ASEAN during 1990-2016. Panel cointegration suggested that there are three cointegrating equations in which two are moving towards equilibrium. In panel VECM, it was found that [i] There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the human development index of the ASEAN during 1990-2016. [ii] There is significant long run association among health expenditure percentage of GDP and unemployment rate on the education expenditure percentage of GDP of the ASEAN during 1990-2016. [iii] There is significant short run association among education expenditure on GDP, from HDI on education expenditure and from GDP on unemployment rate of ASEAN during 1990-2016.

Women's Journey Towards Empowerment : Issues and Challenges edited by Prof. Prabhat Kumar Singh (Ranchi University) and Prof. Amit Bhowmik (Nur Mohammad Smriti Mahavidyalaya, Murshidabad)----2019

DELTON PUBLISHING HOUSE,NEWDELHI,HB,297+XXVII,Rs 1295.

It consists of 25 articles which cover wide range of women empowerment in the areas of agriculture, entrepreneurship, social sector, business, finance, in India and abroad .All articles are written by scholars of India and abroad. The foreword of this edited book is written by Prof. Elias Olukorede Wahab of Lagos State University, Nigeria.

                                                                    Article No-14

Women Empowerment with special emphasis on the relation among gender development index, human development index and gross domestic product per capita   pp 145-162

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik(Retired Principal,Life member IEA,TIES)

Abstract

In this paper, author wishes to find the relationship among the gender development index,human development index and the gross domestic product per capita of the 12 developed countries during 1990-2015 with the help of econometric models such as fixed effect panel regression, Fisher-Johansen panel co-integration , panel vector error correction model and Wald test .

The paper concludes that one per cent increase GDI per year led to 0.1143% increase in GDP per capita and 0.0191% increase in HDI per year significantly during 1990-2015 which were found by fixed effect panel regression. Fisher-Johansen panel co-integration test confirms that there is one co-integrating equation among GDP per capita, HDI and GDI during the survey period. The co-integrating equation tends to equilibrium which indicates that there is long run association among them. From the System equation of VECM it was verified that there is long run causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI. Error correction process showed that the speed of adjustment is 95.25% per year significant. Wald test verified that there is no short causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI and vice versa but there is short run causality running from HDI to GDP per capita. Over all, the VECM is stable, non-stationary, non-normal and serially correlated.

Key Words-gender development index, human development index, GDP per capita, Fisher-Johansen co-integration, panel vector error correction model, short run and long run causality.

JEL Classification –C23, J16, O15

The paper concludes that one per cent increase GDI per year led to 0.1143% increase in GDP per capita and 0.0191% increase in HDI per year significantly during 1990-2015 which were found by fixed effect panel regression. Fisher-Johansen panel co-integration confirms that there is one co-integrating equation among GDP per capita, HDI and GDI during the survey period. The co-integrating equation tends to equilibrium which indicates that there is long run association among them. From the System equation of VECM it was verified that there is long run causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI. Error correction process showed that the speed of adjustment is 95.25% per year significant. Wald test verified that there is no short causality running from HDI and GDP per capita to GDI and vice versa but there is short run causality running from HDI to GDP per capita. Over all, the VECM is stable, non-stationary, non-normal and serially correlated.  

IMPACT OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE ON GDP,HDI,& UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ASEAN-7

ARTICLE

IMPACT OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE ON GDP,HDI AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ASEAN-7

BY   DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Published in INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RESEARCH AND ANALYTICAL REVIEWS
SPECIAL ISSUE,JANUARY 2019,PAGE-184-197,ARTICLE NO-22.

There are 47 papers which were presented in the ICSSR sponsored International conference on "Emerging Socio-Economic Trends and Business Strategy" organised by International School of Business and Media,Kolkata during 18-19 January,2019.

IMPACT OF HEALTH EXPENDITURE ON GDP,HDI,& UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ASEAN-7

Abstract

In this paper author endeavours to relate the health expenditure of ASEAN-7 with GDP , HDI and unemployment rate of ASEAN-7 from 1990-2016 using panel data through the econometric models of fixed effect regression, panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model. The paper concludes that fixed effect panel regression among health expenditure % of GDP, HDI,unemployment rate and GDP of ASEAN-7 during 1990-2016 showed that one per cent increase in health expenditure per year led to 0.719% decrease in GDP per year but one per cent increase in HDI and unemployment rate per year led to step up 2.985% and 0.292% in GDP per year significantly.Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration confirmed that Trace and Max Eigen statistic showed two cointegrating equations where one cointegrating equation tends to equilibrium which implies that there is long run causality from GDP,HDI and unemployment rate of ASEAN-7 to the health expenditure as per cent of GDP during 1990-2016 where residuals VECM is stable,nonstationary,non-normal and serially correlated.Moreover,the Wald test suggests that there is short run causality running from health expenditure % of GDP of ASEAN-7 of previous periods to the change of GDP of ASEAN-7.

Key words : Health expenditure,human development index,unemployment rate,gross domestic product,fixed effect panel regression,cointegration,vector error correction,short run causality, long run causality.

JEL Classification code-C22,E24,F15,H15,I10,I18,J24,J64,O15,O40

VIII.Conclusions

The paper concludes that fixed effect panel regression among health expenditure % of GDP, Human Development Index, unemployment rate and GDP of ASEAN-7 during 1990-2016 showed that one per cent increase in health expenditure per year led to 0.719% decrease in GDP per year but one per cent increase in HDI and unemployment rate per year led to step up 2.985% and 0.292% in GDP per year significantly. Johansen-Fisher panel cointegration confirmed that Trace and Max Eigen statistic showed two cointegrating equations where one cointegrating equation tends to equilibrium which implies that there is long run causality from GDP,HDI and unemployment rate of ASEAN-7 to the health expenditure of ASEAN-7 as per cent of GDP during 1990-2016 where the residual test of  VECM is stable, nonstationary, non-normal and serially correlated. Moreover, the Wald test suggests that there is short run causality running from health expenditure % of GDP of ASEAN-7 of previous periods to the change of GDP of ASEAN-7.The paper also showed some limitations and discussed policy recommendations.

FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIAN SECTORS :PANEL COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIAN SECTORS :PANEL COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

BY.......DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK

UTTARPRADESH UTTARAKHAND ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION ECONOMIC JOURNAL

VOLUME-14,CONFERENCE NO-14, OCTOBER 2018

14TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ,GIDS LUCKNOW,
29-30 OCTOBER,2018,PAGE-304-309

FEMALE EMPLOYMENT RATE IN INDIAN SECTORS:PANEL COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract

In this paper,author endeavours to evaluate empirical investigation on the sectoral female employment rate  in India during 1991-2016 through panel data analysis using regression, panel cointegration and panel vector error correction methodology taking sectoral shares, growth rates of sectors and value added in sectors as independent variables. The paper concludes that the panel regression found that female employment rate of all sectors is negatively related with GDP shares of sectors and growth rates of sectors during 1991-2016 in India. Fisher-Johansen panel cointegration test showed that there are two cointegrating equations among female employment rates of all sectors with GDP shares, growth rates of sectors and value added of the sectors during the said periods. The panel VECM is stable but nonstationary. In VECM system equations, Wald test suggested that there is long run association among growth rate of sectors, value added of sectors and female employment rate of all sectors and there is short causality from growth rates of sectors on shares of sectors and vice versa. Even, there is no short run causality from shares of sectors and growth rate of sectors on value added of sectors. There is no short run causality running from shares of sectors, growth rates of sectors and value added of sectors on female employment rate in all sectors.

Key words-sectoral employment rate, female employment rate, sectoral shares, sectoral growth rates, value added in sectors, Fisher-Johansen cointegration, vector error correction

JEL Classification-C33,J21,J64,L60,L80,Q10

The paper concludes that the panel regression found that female employment rate of all sectors is negatively related with GDP shares of sectors and growth rates of sectors during 1991-2016 in India. Fisher-Johansen panel cointegration test showed that there are two cointegrating equations among female employment rates of all sectors with GDP shares, growth rates of sectors and value added of the sectors during the said periods. The panel VECM is stable but nonstationary. In VECM system equations, Wald test suggested that there is significant long run association among growth rate of sectors, value added of sectors and female employment rate of all sectors and there is short causality from growth rates of sectors on shares of sectors and vice versa. Even, there is no short run causality from shares of sectors and growth rate of sectors on value added of sectors. There is no short run causality running from shares of sectors, growth rates of sectors and value added of sectors on female employment rates in all sectors.

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

MY ARTICLE

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

THEME-II

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract

In this paper,author studied the trends, prospects and determinants of EU-NAFTA  trade during 1990-2016 showing cointegration and vector error corrections of world export share and import shares of EU and NAFTA with their determinants like export and import concentration index,export and import diversification index and trade balance indicator. Moreover, Euro Area’s trade with NAFTA from 1995-2016 was also explained by export and import concentration index and trade correlation indices. The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly with stationary process in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM . Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off. 

JEL codes—C32,F02,F14,F15

Key words – Trade co-operation,EU-NAFTA trade agreement,EU-NAFTA trade,EU-NAFTA trade indicators

The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM. Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off.