VOLUME NO-8,ISSUE-1,OCTOBER 2016 - MARCH 2017
TITLE OF THE PUBLISHED PAPER-CAPITAL INFLOWS AND SILVER STANDARD IN INDIA
AUTHOR-DR.DEBESH BHOWMIK
ABSTRACT
Capital
inflows and Silver Standard in India
Dr.Debesh
Bhowmik
In this paper author tries to relate gold and silver
inflows with GDP,GDP per capita,export, import and gold silver price ratio in
India during silver standard regime from 1851 to 1893. Author used
semi-log,double-log regression models, Johansen cointegration and VAR models (1991,1996)
and Bai-Perron model(2003) for structural change taking data from
Maddison(2006) and Ambedkar(1923). The paper concludes that gold inflows during
1851-1893 had decreased at the rate of 0.34% per year insignificantly but it
was nonstationary, convergent and had no structural breaks. Silver inflows during
1851-1893 had increased at the rate of 1. among silver inflows and gold inflows
with those variables were also insignificant although GDP, export, import,and
gold silver price ratio had been increasing at the rates of 0.52%,9.14% ,5.16%
and 0.77% per year significantly. But double-log linear regression model
suggested that gold inflows had significant impact from GDP,GDP per capita, export,
and gold-silver price ratio but had no significant impact of silver inflows
from those variables during 1851-1893 respectively. Yet,there is bidirectional
causality among gold inflows, GDP, GDP per capita, export, import and gold
silver price ratio significantly during the given period. Even, there were
sharp depreciation of rupee sterling rate,falling silver price ,silver
production and rising gold price and gold production during the silver standard
regime. Thus, gold and silver inflows could not synthesize the silver standard
more effective in macro-dynamic adjustment during 1851-1893 although the series
of managerial experiments of the commissions and government are equally
responsible for instability of the silver standard in India which was equally
identical with gold standard in England.
Key
words-Net gold inflows, net silver inflows, silver standard, GDP, export, import,
cointegration, VAR
JEL-E42,F33,N10,N20
