INTERNATIONAL SEMINAR ON INDIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN RECENT YEARS:A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON 25JULY,2017

ORGANISED BY

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS,BARRACKPORE RATRAGURU SURENDRANATH COLLEGE

IN COLABORATION WITH

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS ,WESTBENGAL STATE UNIVERSITY

CENTRE FOR TRAINING AND RESEaRCH IN PUBLIC FINANCE AND POLICY ,

CENTRE FOR STUDIES IN SOCIAL SCIENCE,CALCUTTA

After inauguration welcome address was given by Principal Dr.Manojit Roy showed appreciation on the theme chosen by the college.Dr.Tusher Kanti Nandy,(CTRPFP) tried give a brief idea of the centre where research,training on public finance under ministry of finance have been conducted.Prof Kausik Gupta of Calcutta University gives inaugural lecture on “Macroeconomic perspectives of Indian Economic development In recent years:An overview” where he emphasized on inclusive growth,changes in growth in several phases,eg,fall due to corruption, and rise due to social sector development,He noted Sen and Dreze and Bhagavati and Panagaiya in respect of growth and development.He gave reasons for  jobless growth in the phases 2008-2013.He tried to show real balance effect due to demonetization,and the reduction of growth.Govt.failed to control black money and less availability internet for digital economy.He also raised some questions about GST in context specification and rates and asked whether it is related with demonetization.Prof.Basab Chowdhury ,Vice Chancellor of WBSU, welcome all and said some tides to read economics however he is not glad why students are unwilling to read economics whereas it is related to real life and can solve common problems for all.Prof.Sushil Halder,of Jadavpur University addressed on “Gender and Economic Development in India:Some emerging issues” where he noted that is growth gender nutral,and discussed about gender gap ratio,HDI,GDI,GEM,and reviewing literature he showed that over all sex ratio trend is declining and then rising  and it is heterogeneous for states in India.He showed it by comparative studies.He used LSDV model with dummy variable to verify this notion.He also showed female work participation rate,poverty and child ratio and found significant results.

In the special lecture session,Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhyaya of WBSU,gave lecture on effects of demonetization on Indian capital market showing structural breaks and nonstationarity in share indices in India.Even he showed changing pattern of autocorrelation structure and verified bank indices nonstationary after demonetization.Prof.Tusher Kanti Nandy of CTRPFP,lucidly explain the concepts,classification and system of GST in India.He explained the rates,calculation of rates,exemption limit,distribution of turnover,finance commission views,on GST rates and implications.Dr.Jayanta Dwibedi of BKC college in his paper “Fiscal Performances in Indian States” explains the role of centre and state on the fiscal deficit where he emphasis on revenue deficit.He explained the distribution of tax revenue among the states where role of finance commission is vital.He worked out a model using transfer functions where he intended to show that poor states should get higher tax revenue than the richer .Prof.Anindya Biswas of  Spring Hill University,USA said his lucid lecture on “Real sector and financial sector of the economy:An Overview”where he explains marginal value of wealth,inflation gap,output gap,potential gap,and tried to verify it in US economy and he endeavours to find Taylors Macro rule in near future.

There were two parallel technical sessions each contain 8 papers.

In technical session-1

1]Anadi Sarker-THKJain College-“A Study on development of rural areas through khadi sector in India”

2]Ashoke Biswas-APC College-“India’s manufacturing sector :Challenging in Make in India Campaign”

3]Rajyasri Roy-Phd scholar of Calcutta University-“Are Informal workers more poverty striken than the formal workers in India”

4] Dipak Biswas-Swami Niswambalananda Girl’s College-“Role of NABARD on SHG Bank linkage programme for Indian Economic Development: study”

5]Dr.Debesh Bhowmik-Retired Principal-“Econometric analysis of India’s International GDP share during 1960-2015”

6]Anurag Banerjee-MPhil Scholar-University of Calcutta,-“Determinants of the level capitalization of Indian commercial banks”

7]Mainak Bhattacharjee-Heritage College-“Globalisation and economic development:A study on India vis-à-vis world”

8]Avik Chattopadhyaya-Jaipuria College-“Agricultural Insurance :A way towards economic growth as well as prevailing difficulties in West Bengal”

Session-2

1]Sangita Roy-Research Scholar-Viswa-Bharati-“Trade liberalization,skilled-unskilled labour and wage distribution”

2]Sushrita Mukherjee-Taki Govt.College-“Demonetisation in India:An attempt towards achieving a modern,digital and cashless economy”

3]Pallabi Jalasaria-JRF Research Scholar-Calcutta University-“Efficiency analysis of Indian commercial Banks in Post reform period”

4]Moumita Das-BRS College and Soumyadip Chattopadhyaya-Viswa Bharati-“An analysis of fiscal decentralization to Urban local governments in West Bengal”

5]Gobindalal Mandal(NewAlipore College)and Atanu Ghosh(NewAlipore College)-“Generation of tax revenue in India-A tool for economic development”

6]Archita Pramanik and Mauli Sanyal(New Alipore College)-“Education in Jeopardy:The effect of FRBM Since inception”

7]Dipankar Das and Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhyay(WBSU)-“FDI inflows and Military expenditure:A study  across the emerging market economies”

8] Dr.Debabrata Mukhopadhayay and Arun Kumar Mandal(WBSU)-“Infrastructure development and changing market penetration of consumer durables in rural India”

An Econometric analysis of world GDP share of India during 1960-2015

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik(Retired Principal)

Abstract

In this paper, author attempted to analyse India’s international GDP share during 1960-2015 with econometric models taking the data from World Bank. Semilog linear trend model, exponential trend model were used to find trend of Growth. Variance ratio test was used to show random walk. AR(1) model was used to show stationary, convergence and oscillations. ARIMA (1,1,1) forecast model was tested for  stationary of the series. Bai-Perron(2003) model explained to show structural breaks and Hodrick-Prescott Filter(1997 ) model minimized the cycles  for smoothness of trend of GDP share.

The paper concludes that India’s international GDP share has been declining at the rate of 0.459% per year during 1960-2015 and has been decreasing exponentially at the rate of 0.259% per year significantly. The variance ratio test confirmed that the series follows random walk. AR(1) process is significant, stable, converging and stationary. Forecast for 2035 of AR(1) model  is also a good fit. ARIMA(1,1,1) forecast model showed stable although non-stationary and likely to move downward towards 2035.Its AC and PAC are not declining and impulse response functions are diverging. Bai-Perron (2003) test assured that the GDP share has three structural breaks in 1968,1988 and 2006 respectively. The first two are downward and the third one is upward. H.P.Filter (1997)model reduced the cycle into a smooth trend which showed a clear tough during the study period. The GDP share contains cyclical fluctuations where 4peaks and 6 toughs are clearly visible.

Key words-  International GDP share, exponential growth, structural break, non-stationary, H.P.Filter

JEL-N15,O21,O24,O57,O10