SEMINAR ON LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT : THEORY AND EMPIRICS

SEMINAR ON “LABOUR AND EMPLOYMENT : THEORY AND EMPIRICS”

-Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Bengal Economic Association has organized a Mid-Year National Seminar on 27^th September 2013 at Krishnagar Government College,Nadia,W.B.,India.This Seminar has been sponsored by ICSSR.The theme of the seminar was “Labour and Employment:Theory and Empirics”.This seminar was inaugurated by Dr. Arabinda Ghosh,ADM,Nadia who is also an Economist.In his address he emphasized that in India like ours,in the process of globalization,growth is not the single factor alone for socio economic development. The welcome address was given by Prof. Jayasri Ray Choudhury,Principal Krishnagar Govt.College and the Association’s President Prof. Biswajit Chatterjee of Jadavpur University.In the technical session-I,the key note paper presented by Prof.Debendra Narayan Bhattacharjee,Director APEX Management Institute, Kolkata on “Labour and employment-Theory and Empirics:An Analytical Overview”.In his address, summarized some prominent theories such as disequilibrium theories of fix price model type,implicit contract,efficiency models of various types’ insider-outsider theories which were supported by empirical studies where variations across countries in the impact of economic activities on price setting were found to be generally small across the countries were mentioned. Large variations in unemployment effects on wages are strongly inversely related to the duration of benefits and directly related to the proportion of small firms in the economy.He also mentioned some limitations of major theoretical pursuits of mainstream approach.Prof.Rajib Bhattacharjee of Hoogly Hohsin College,on his paper “A Review of employment Scenario in India in the Post Liberalisation Era”,said that the longterm trends in overall employment situation with special focus on employment in the organized sector of India which consists of both the public and private sector and highlighted the trends in women’s employment in the organized sector of India.Shreya Some of Jadavpur University in her paper”Balance between the growth of labour force and employment opportunities:the constraints” focuses mainly on different constraints that lead to an imbalance between the growth of labour force and employment opportunities along with some policy measures taken by the Govt. of India. Dr.Sadhan Chandra Kar,Dr.Surya Narayan Ray of Dinhata College and Ranjit Kumar Ghosh of Alipurduar College on their joint paper on ”Employment Generating Capacity of an Agrarian Based Economy in Pre and Post- liberalisation period” throw light on the potentiality of an agricultural alternative sector in generating employment opportunity for the labourers who are being employmed rather disguisedly in the basic sector of our rural economy.Dr.Tushar Das-Headmaster of Sadananda Mission High School,Howrah, on his paper , “Economic Reform and Labour Market Characteristics in all India and West Bengal:A comparative Study” mentioned the changing trends of wage share in value added ,labour productivity and unit labour costs of producing output in industries for West Bengal as well as for all india level over the period from 2000-01 to 2007-08.Arini Bhattacharjee,a researcher,on her paper,”Employment and unemployment in India” emphasised on current scenario of unemployment and role of RNFS in reducing rural poverty and RNFS  provides diverse employment opportunities in rural areas itself that ,in turn, reduces urban migration and urban unemployment.Prof.Moumita Chakraborty of Kanchrapara College,in her paper on “Increase in higher education enrolment and its impact on employment level in India” studied to discuss issues regarding rise in higher educational attainment and change in employment level in the post reform era and also tries to address the important initiatives taken by central government to synchronise quality education with changing job requirement.Prof.Manoj Kumar Halder of Krishnagar Govt.College studies the causes and impacts of internal migration on rural weaker ,marginal section of Karimpur Bloc-I of Nadia District.Prof.Tanusree Banerjee of Krishnagar Govt.College, in her paper on “Stigmatized Employment-A Statistical Measure” proposed a model to estimate the proportion( of Stigmatised employment randomized response survey) was  unbiasedly without using randomized device which is more efficient than Takahasi model.Suman Das of Krishnagar Govt.College and Suman Pal ,Prof.of said college in their paper on,”Impact of Village tourism on income and employment generation” suggested a plan for the generation of employment through sustainable use of local resources and village tourism for the betterment of economic conditions of the villagers of Baranti. Dr.Debesh Bhowmik of International Institute for Development Studies,Kolkata,in his paper on “The nexus between productivity and employment” tried to explore the various studies on the nexus between the productivity growth and the employment through VAR model of Dritsakis(2012) and  Blanchand, Solow and Wilson(1995) model and found cointegration and causality but the association went to either direction. In the short run, the nexus was seen negative but not in all countries and in the long run , the association was found both positive and negative in the world economies like Europe, America ,Africa and in Asia. No general conclusion could not be drawn on the nexus because state of technology, employees benefit, wage structure, hours of labour vary from country to country whether it was in USA,France,UK ,India or in EU. Even, the association is different from sectors to sectors. Above all, if the scale of measurement of labour productivity differs, the association between labour productivity  and employment may also differ.

Lastly,the vote of thanks was given by Prof.Anupam Chakraborty of Krishnagar Government College,Nadia.       

   

WORLD IMBALANCE OF NATURAL OIL - KEY POINTS

World Imbalance of Natural oil-Key points

-Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

[1]The world has ample proved reserves of oil and natural gas to meet expected future demand growth. At the end of 2011, global proved reserves of oil were sufficient to meet 54 years of current (2011) production; for natural gas that figure is 64 years.

[2]The distribution of global proved reserves of oil and natural gas – while essential for energy production – is not a good predictor of the distribution of future production growth. Indeed, the world’s oil and gas importing regions – Asia Pacific, North America, and Europe – are expected to contribute a disproportional share of the world’s oil and natural gas production to 2030.

[3]These countries sit atop just 16% of global proved reserves of oil and natural gas, yet they will account for 38% of global production in 2030, and will deliver one-third of the growth in global production.

[4]We project that the current decade will experience the most rapid growth in global production of tight oil and shale gas. After 2020, North American growth is expected to moderate, in part due to current assessments of the resource base. Continued, but more modest, growth elsewhere results in slower global production growth in the next decade.

[5]The global understanding of tight oil and shale gas potential is still evolving, however, and the range of external forecasts reflects the uncertain landscape. Different views on the North American resource base – in particular, whether to expect further growth – are the key factor behind the range of external forecasts. Elsewhere, varying assessments of above ground issues are another driver of divergent forecasts.

[6]These uncertainties could result in a significantly higher path for tight oil and shale gas production – as much as 5 Mb/d and 35 Bcf/d, respectively, by 2030. Additional supplies would have follow-on implications for the broader outlook: in the case of oil, for example, by reducing the market requirement for OPEC crude and boosting spare capacity.

[7]Growing production and flat consumption will see the US become nearly self-sufficient in energy by 2030. The US will remain a small net importer of oil, although net imports will decline by about 70%. With net exports of natural gas and coal, US energy production will reach 99% of domestic consumption, up from a low of 70% in 2005.

[8]China is on pace to match Europe as the world’s leading energy importer by 2030, and will replace the US as the world’s largest oil importing nation by 2017.

[9]However, the growth in Chinese energy imports will be taking place in a context of robust economic growth. Adjusting the volume of energy imports for expected economic growth will leave China relatively less dependent (per unit of GDP) than EU on imported energy.

[10]Other things equal, the development of energy imbalances point toward a reduction of global trade imbalances.

[11]Russia will remain the world’s largest energy exporter, with increases in exports of all fossil fuels. Net energy exports will rise by 25% in volume terms.

[12]By 2030, Saudi Arabia will be the world’s largest oil exporter, although the trajectory over time will be impacted by the likelihood of OPEC production cuts discussed earlier. By 2030, oil exports in volume terms are likely to be 17% above the 2010 level.

[13]As a region, Africa will become an increasingly important source of fossil fuel exports as well.

[14]Once again adjusting for expected economic growth, Russia – and the African countries as a group – are likely to remain significantly less dependent on energy exports than Saudi Arabia.

[15]Carbon emissions from energy use continue to grow, increasing by 26% between 2011 and 2030 (1.2% p.a.). We assume continued tightening in policies to address climate change, yet emissions remain well above the required path to stabilise the concentration of greenhouse gases at the level recommended by scientists (450 ppm).

[16]There is some progress: the changing fuel mix, in particular the rising share of renewables and substitution of coal with gas, results in a gradual decoupling of emissions growth from primary energy growth.

[17]Carbon emissions continue to fall in the EU – on the back of carbon abatement policies, support for renewables and declining overall energy demand – and in the US – driven by falling oil demand (efficiency gains in the car fleet), renewables in power and the displacement of coal by gas.

[18]The structural transformation of China’s economy slows its energy demand growth, especially after 2020 and especially for coal, causing a significant reduction in the growth of China’s carbon emissions.

WORLD TRADE OF NATURAL OIL

World Trade of Natural Oil 

-Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

 

The world financial crisis in both USA and EU which had spill over effects in the international economy had created bad impact on international trade of natural oil.The middleeast and the African countries which are the main producers of the world dwindled their exports since 2008 for which the import demand of USA , Europe and Japan had fallen sharply since 2008  and the international oil price had started to rise quickly as soon as the recession in EU began.USA imported 12872 thousands  barrels  daily in 2008 which fell down to 10587 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 19.1% of the total. Europe imported 13751 thousand barrel daily in 2008 which decreased to 12488 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 22.6 % of the total.The import of Japan also stepped down from 4925 thousand barrels to 4743 thousand barrels during the said period.The middle east and Africa , the main suppliers of oil had cut down their export . The middle east cut from 20128 thousand barrels daily in 2008 to 19699 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 35.6% of the total.Africa cut from 9979 thousand barrels daily in 2008 to 7168 thousand barrels daily in 2012 which was 13% of the total.Mexico also cut down from 1609 to 1366 thousand barrels daily during the said period.USA, being a strong producer of oil exported only 4.8% of the total exports in comparison to 5.5% of Canada in 2012.USSR had a great role in oil export market and contributed 15.5% of total exports in 2012.

 Table-1: Trade Movements of Natural oil

Thousand barrels daily	2002	2008	2012	2012 share of total
Imports
USA	11357	12872	10587	19.1
Europe	11895	13751	12488	22.6
Japan	5070	4925	4743	8.6
Rest of world	16291	23078	27496	49.7
Total world	44613	54626	55314	100
Exports
USA	904	1967	2680	4.8
Canada	1959	2498	3056	5.5
Mexico	1966	1609	1366	2.5
S.&cent America	2965	3616	3834	6.9
Europe	2234	2023	2174	3.9
USSR	5370	8184	8597	15.5
Middle East	18062	20128	19699	35.6
North Africa	2620	3260	2604	4.7
West Africa	3134	4587	4564	8.3
Asia Pacific	3848	5392	6419	11.6
Rest of World	1551	1363	322	0.6
World Total	44613	54626	55314	100