95TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF INDIAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION

95^th  annual conference of Indian Economic Association was held at Gitam University, Visakhaptnam during 27-29 December,2012.Its focal theme was “Growth and Structural Changes in Employment”which was divided into four themes,namely,[i] Economic Growth and Employment Linkages,[ii]Employment pattern:Structural ,Regional and Social Groups,[iii] Drivers of Changing Pattern of Employment and [iv] Human Resource Development and Employment Pattern.Each theme is divided into two groups as per papers submission.[ia] Growth and employment linkages in which there were 30 papers and [ib]”Does the pace and pattern of growth influence the quality of employment”  where 19 papers were printed,[iia]”Changes in the structural employment “ in which 20papers were included,[iib]”Changing employment pattern-dimensions of region,gender and social groups” where 31 papers were accepted so far,[iiia]”Macro Economic Drivers of employment growth and its pattern” where 24 papers were published,[iiib] “Policy drivers” in which 16 papers were included,[iva]”Human resource development and the pattern of employment/unemployment” where 17 papers were published and [ivb] “Demographic dividend and the challenge of improving employability” where 11 papers were included.

 On 27December,welcome address was given by Prof.G.Subrahmanyam-Vice Chacellor of Gitam University and the conference was inaugurated by Mrs.D.Purandeswari,the Hon’ble Minister of State,Commerce and Industry,GOI.The Conference President of Indian Economic Association, Prof.B.L.Mungekar,the member of Parliament,Rajya Sabha gave address on “Contextualising Nehruvian Model of Development”.The Association  President,Prof.S.Thorat and Secretary Prof.Anil Kumar Thakur delivered their addresses to the attended participant.Some of the important books on Economic Issues were released,and Prof.K.Siva Rama Krishna,Principal of Management Gitam University,gave vote of thanks as a local organizer.

Prof.T.S.Papola was the key note speaker of the theme 1A and 1B,and Prof.S.Mahendra Dev and Prof.Amaresh Dubey were the key note speakers of themes 2A and 2B respectively.Prof.Biswajit Chatterjee and Prof.Arup Mitra were the key note speakers of the theme,3A and 3B. Prof.K.P.Kanan and Prof.Sudhakar Panda wre the key note speakers of the theme 4A and 4B respectively.

The R.H.Patil Memorable Lecture was given by Prof. Ajay Shah of National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,NewDelhi.Prof.Suresh Tendulkar memorial lecture was given by Prof. G.K.Chaddha,the President,South Asian University,NewDelhi.A Panel Discussion on “How to enhance research capacity and the quality of teaching materials in the college and University teachers” was well discussed by Prof.S.Thorat,Prof.S.Indumati,Prof.C.H.Hanumantha Rao, Dr.C.Rangarajan,Dr.Vijay Kelkar,Prof.T.S.Papola and V.R.Panchamukhi, Prof.B.L. Mungekar, Prof.G.K.Chaddha,Prof.K.S.Chalam,Prof.Ramesh Dhadichi,Prof.Paramananda Singha  respectively.Prof.Brahmananda memorial lecture was given by Prof.C.R.Rangarajan-the president of economic advisor of PM on Dynamics of Inflation.

All the paper writers of the 8 themes presented their papers in different rooms of Institute of Management,Gitam University.The Association published 4 volumes namely special volume of Indian Economic Journal,December,2012.

My paper lies in the theme 1A whose title was “The Nexus between the Employment and GDP growth rate” where I concluded that India’s GDP growth and unemployment rate not  cointegrated in the order of (1,1) and it is positively related insignificantly during 1994-2010.Also it was non-linear in shape but was not significant having ARCH and AR errors. The Sims(1980) VAR model was insignificant and asymptotic and impulse response function converges zero, the ECM model is not significant.The Planning Commission and RBI data on employment elasticity and growth rate and employment growth rate signified that India did not have any inverse relationship between GDP growth rate and unemployment rate.   

There were also more than 150 paper presenters whose papers were abstracted in the summary volume.

IEA organized a special session on Andhra Pradesh Economy where many papers were produced on the chairmanship of Prof.L.K.Mohan Rao,Prof. of Andhra University.

An important panel discussion on skill development and vocational education was held and chaired by Prof.K.C.Reddy and the discussands were Dilip H.M.Chenoy,Prof.Sudhanshsu Bhusan, Prof.Alakh N.Sharma ,Mr.Vijay Mahajan and Prof.Nawal Kishore Choudhury respectively.

The valedictory session was ornamented by the chief guest Sri Jai Ram Ramesh,Hon’ble Minister for Rural Development ,GOI.The session was ended by the memorable addresses from the President,conference President and the Secretary of the Indian Economic Association.

During 27-28 December,the cultural function enriched the 95^th conference  where the classical vocal singers and dancers as well as modern dances by students of Gitam university were the major attractions.   

GLOBAL WARMING,SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND W.T.O.

Abstract

GLOBAL WARMING,SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND W.T.O.

Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

JEL-F18,Q01,Q17,Q54,Q56

Keywords-Global warming,agricultural production,climate policy,sustainable development

WTO,CO₂ emission,multilateral environment agreement

In this paper,we have showed that global warming is the outcome of increased green house gases like CFC,HCFC,C,CH4,CO2 etc by which diarrheal diseases,air pollution,soil erosion, salinisation, ozone depletion,loss of biodiversity will continue to grow and the global temperature will increase 10ºC in the next 100 years for which sea level will step up 6 metres.A sound international climate policy is absent due to non-ratification of Kyoto Protokol by USA,so that EU,Brazil,China,Mexico,ASEAN planned to reduce green house gas emissions by 30% within 2020.Most of the developed countries followed Stern and IPCC reports and Clean Development Mechanism for sustainability.A number of research studies proved that the impact of global warming on agriculture is negative at 2ºC-3ºC increase in temperature with/without carbon fertilization with severe loss of agricultural production in Africa,South America,Western Asia and India. WTO has no expertise to deal with environmental problem such as heating the upper atmosphere, or has no  objection or targets to reduce green house gas emissions.Members of WTO are ,however,concerned with trade measures applied pursuant to Multilateral Environmental Agreements which can affect WTO members’ rights and obligations.Thus why, Doha summit calls for the reduction or as appropriate , elimination of tariff and non tariff barriers to environmental goods and services in which WTO made a list of 153 environmental goods and EU-USA submitted 43 goods claiming zero tariff on or after 2013.Thus,WTO ,through increased dissemination of cleaner technologies,win win climate policies by improving resource allocation,promoting economic growth and increasing welfare,may lead to grow 7-14% of trade in climate friendly technologies.  

For full article , read -Anil Kumar Trhakur and Dipti Taneja edited ,"Economics of Sustainable Development(2012)(Deep and Deep Publications,NewDelhi),pp356-378

TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS : A WAY FORWARD

TRADE AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEXUS  :  A  WAY  FORWARD⁺

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

JEL- F13 , F18 , H23  ,  Q54  , Q56

Key Words – Trade  policy  , Trade and Environment ,Environmental taxes and subsidies,  , Climate ,Environment and Development

Introduction

The Stern Review[1] calculated that the impact of climate change would be a loss of at least 5% of global GDP each year and could be reach as much as 20% of global GDP at 2.5°C and 75-250 million African people would experience water stress in 2020  and some African countries would suffer from a 50% decline in agricultural yields. The required change in consumption and production patterns will neither be easy to achieve nor occur without seriously altering global trade patterns. Both climate change and measures taken to combat it will thus have an impact on international trade.

Trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. In part, this is due to the innumerable implications that climate change may have in terms of its potential impacts and the profound regulatory and economic changes that will be required to mitigate and adapt to these impacts. Climate change is expected to have an impact on trade infrastructure and trade transportation routes. Literature indicates that more open trade is likely to increase CO₂ emissions as a result of increased economic activity (the scale effect). On the other hand, trade opening could facilitate the adoption of technologies that reduce the emission-intensity of goods and the production process (the technique effect) and lead to a change in the mix of production from energy-intensive to less energy-intensive sectors if it is where it has a comparative advantage  (the composition effect). Although most studies to date have found that the scale effect tends to outweigh the technique and composition effects in terms of CO₂ emissions, it remains difficult to determine in advance the magnitude of each of these three effects, and therefore estimating the overall impact of trade on green house gas emissions can be challenging.

Trade and climate change are linked in multiple ways in the domestic and international rules and institutions because climate change is already affecting the productive base of international trade which may help or hinder climate efforts by transferring climate friendly technologies or increasing transport-related emissions. In the realm of climate policy such as new regulations or standards may affect trade and competitiveness. On the other hand, trade policies may influence economic activities and associated GHG emissions. Trade and climate policies may also intersect with each other as a matter of law. Domestic climate measures and climate negotiations are likely to be scrutinized in the WTO rules. The linkage is essential in preamble of the WTO in the interest of developing countries and achieving sustainable development.The existing WTO agreements such as trade in goods,trade in services and protection of intellectual property transverse the territory covered by climate issues and institutions.Doha Work Programme in relation to agriculture,industrial products and environmental goods and services may also affect efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change . WTO’s dispute settlement body may also come into play in the event that climate-related trade disputes cannot be addressed through diplomatic or other channels.

The association  between trade and climate change measures in the climate regime is governed by, among others, Art. 3.5 of the UNFCCC which states that “measures taken to combat climate change, including unilateral ones, should not constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination or a disguised restriction on international trade.” This reflects Art. XX of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which allows WTO Members to adopt measures that may be inconsistent with their WTO obligations if such measures are, inter alia, “necessary to protect human, animal or plant life or health” or are related “to the conservation of exhaustible natural resources if such measures are made effective in conjunction with restrictions on domestic production or consumption”, provided that these measures “are not applied in a manner which would constitute a means of arbitrary or unjustifiable discrimination between countries where the same conditions prevail, or a disguised restriction on international trade.”

The climate –trade nexus has gained increasing attention after Kyoto Protocol  in relation to unilateral action and multilateral efforts in GATT Article XX[2] and in regional agreements in Article XXIV, for the interpretation of the causal link required to justify environmental measures under Article XX(b) and, by implication, XX(g). However, the relevance of WTO rules to climate change mitigation policies, as well as the implications for trade and the environmental effectiveness of these measures, will very much depend on how these policies are designed and the specific conditions for implementing them.

The discussion on  trade-and-climate-change is also expanding the notion of what constitutes “unfair” trade. For decades, international trade law, as reflected in both the WTO system and the domestic law of most trading nations, has recognized that pricing imports below certain levels (whether due to “dumping” by foreign exporters or subsidies provided by foreign governments) is a form of “unfair” trade that should be redressed where it harms domestic industries. This notion of unfair trade is based purely on how an imported product is priced. Climate change concerns are now expanding the notion of unfair trade to take into account how imported products are made - specifically, the volume and nature of the greenhouse gases associated with their manufacture.

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[1] Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Executive Summary, available at http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/

independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm

+ The paper has been written to show my gratitude ,respect and honour to Prof.Raj Kumar Sen  who is my friend,philosopher and guide.

[2] For a detailed explanation of Article XX, see WTO (2002).

For full article -see,Environment Problems and Challenges-Recent Issues and Opportunities(A Festschrift for Prof.Raj Kumar Sen)(2013)-Somnath Hazra,(Regal Publishers, NewDelhi), pp498-524

ECONOMICS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY,ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GREEN JOBS

VARTA-VOL-XXXII,NO-2,OCTOBER 2011,13-25

ECONOMICS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GREEN JOBS

DEBESH BHOWMIK

(International Institute for Development Studies, Kolkata)

Keywords- Renewable energy, Sustainable development , Green jobs

JEL-Q2 ,   Q56,    J62,

Abstract

Renewable energy has its potentiality to enrich the process of sustainable development path showing enhance growth of green jobs.In energy consumption, the world’s share of renewable energy constitutes only 16%where global renewable energy increased from 200GW in 2008 to 312GW in 2010.The top five countries are USA, China, Germany, Spain and India.Other than the solar and wind energy,the geothermal,ocean energy,ethanol and bio-diesel and nuclear power production are accelerating.World investment in those sectors are stepping up gradually to 17.9 trillion dollar in 2030 from which 4289 mt could be produced in 2030 compared to 1364 mt in 2001.Stern(1993, 2000),Masih and Masih(1996) and many others found that energy is significant in explaining GDP in time series data (significant in India,Pakistan,Indonesia etc) but Yu and Jin(1992),Kaufmann (1992) and a few writers found no direct relation between energy and GDP.Renewable energy use has a direct impact on the sustainable development which essentially improves quality of life in a way that can be sustained, economically and environmentally, over the long term supported by the institutional structure of the country.The social energy, economic energy indicators andthe environmental energy indicators can determine the sustainable development.The barriers in the use of renewable energy resources such as lack of information,lack of knowledge,discrimination against sources,lack of training,and R&D can hinder the path of sustainable development.The potentiality of renewable energy in creating green job is high for which national energy policy aligned with international energy policy should be built up with strong governance.