NEXUS BETWEEN GROWTH AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX:EVIDENCE FROM INDIA AND INDIAN STATES.

 Article No-10, Vol-3,Issue-2,2018,96-118,July-December, Assumption University e Journal of Interdisciplinary Research, Graduate School of e Learning.Thailand.

NEXUS BETWEEN GROWTH AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX:EVIDENCE FROM INDIA AND INDIAN STATES.
.......................Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Assumption University-eJournal of Interdisciplinary Research (AU-eJIR): Vol. 3. Issue.2, 2018
ISSN: 2408-1906 Page 1
NEXUS BETWEEN GROWTH AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA AND INDIAN STATES
Dr. Debesh Bhowmik
(Retired Principal and Associated in Indian Economic Association and
The Indian Econometric Society)
Abstract: In this paper, the author endeavors to show the nature of HDI and the relation between HDI of India and economic growth, rate of unemployment, GDP and GDP per capita respectively during 1990-2016. The author used semi log and double log regression model and also used Bai-Perron Model (2003) for structural breaks, Granger model (1969) for causality, Johansen model (1988,1996) for cointegration and vector error correction and Sala-i-Martin(1996) model for convergence test in Indian States. The paper concludes that HDI of India has been increasing at the rate of 1.55% per year from 1990 to 2016.HDI has three upward structural breaks in 1996, 2004 and 2011 respectively. HDI of India does not follow random walk hypothesis. One per cent increase in HDI of India led to 1.41% increase in growth rate per year during 1990-2016. This relationship is co-integrated and they have no bidirectional causality. Their VECM is unstable and non-stationary and error correction is significant and fast for equation Δlog (GDP growth rate). Moreover, one per cent rise in HDI per year led to 5.86% rise in GDP, 4.828 % increase in GDP per capita and 0.5028% decrease in unemployment rate per year respectively during 1990-2016 in India. There is positive association between HDI, GSDP and GSDP per capita of all states in 1983, 1987-88, 1999-00, 2004-05, 2009-10 and 2011-12. These relationships are valid for high plus medium human development and low human development states of India for those years. In Fixed effect model of panel data, the regression between of all states’ HDI and GSDP per capita is positive. This paper finds sigma convergence of HDI of all states. Only four states showed negative growth of HDI in spite of their rising trends of social sector expenditure. The paper recommended to enhance government expenditure on education and health and to emphasis gender budgeting and FDI inflows.
Key Words-Human Development Index, Economic Growth, Cointegration, Causality, Vector Error Correction, HDI of Indian States

JEL Codes-O10, O15, O57, C23

1. INTRODUCTION

Economic thoughts on the recognition of human capital as central force in economic theory since long period were relevant when Adam Smith (1776) argued that growth means not only capital accumulation and technical progress but also growth of human capital which play a critical role in the progress of economic development. With obvious reason, Marshall (1890) stressed education and parental care as investment in human capital. Then Schultz (1963) in the human capital model showed how education allows the production process to benefit from positive externalities and promotes growth. Gary Becker (1964) said that human capital investment increases the ability of people to increase wealth because human capital is the investment in training, education, health, values and other aspect of human potential. After a decade, Lucas (1988) in the endogenous growth theory emphasized investment in human capital more directly and linked it to long term rates of economic growth. In internal growth models, Romer (1986; 1990), and later economists investigated economic growth through physical and human capital accumulation. Besides labor and capital, human capital had a significant place in endogenous growth models and additionally the effects of human capital on economic growth were pointed out in previous studies in the literature (Telatar & Terzi,2010). In analyzing the process of human capital, Hahbub Ul Haq (1995) defined human development paradigm as “the process of enlarging people’s choices”. Amartya Sen (1999) went further and argued that standard of living of a society should be judged not by the average level of income but by people’s capabilities to lead the life they value. Author argued that development ought to be viewed as capability expansion and freedom, rather than being viewed as purely economic phenomenon. Additionally, Becker, Murpy, & Tamura (1990) in a study titled “Human Capital, Fertility and Economic Growth”, indicated higher returns of human capital and education in developed countries than in developing countries. Based upon the aforementioned information, one can see that the size of a population alone is not sufficiently effective on economic growth and the bottom line is the knowledge, skills, and experience-like attributes of the population.
Human development has positive impact on economic growth through improvement of human capital because education has strong effects on labour productivity and improvement in health and nutrition enhances productivity and income. More educated people are likely to innovate and thus affect everyone’s productivity. Even, education may affect per capita income growth through reducing population growth. Distribution of income and assets has an effect on economic growth because of better nutrition and strong demand for education and hence higher productivity. Education alone, of course, cannot transform an economy. The quantity and quality of investment, domestic and foreign together constitute other important determinants of economic performance. Education and health may also have strong indirect impacts on economic growth through their effects on distribution of income and education even more so through its impact on health. Tailor et al (1999) expressed that in developing countries economic growth is needed for reducing poverty, providing access to basic social services, building of basic capabilities in the people and generating the resources required for human development. Economic growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the promotion of human development. Beyond quantity, it is the quality of growth that is crucial for human well-being. Growth that is jobless, ruthless, voiceless, rootless and futureless is not favorable to human development .Economic growth must be equitable for its benefits to have an impact on people’s lives. Human development and economic growth have two-way causal relationship. Human development raises levels of education, health, and nutrition in an economy all of which enhance productivity of the economy. And growth can also be linked to many other elements of human development such as political freedom, cultural heritage, societal progress and environmental sustainability. Because, modern growth theory explains economic growth rate primarily in terms of expanded human and social capital rather than physical capital. On the one hand, economic growth provides the resources to permit sustained improvement in human development. On the other hand, sustained improvement in the quality of human capital is an important contribution to economic growth.
7. CONCLUSIONS

The paper concludes that HDI of India has been increasing at the rate of 1.55% per year from 1990 to 2016.HDI has three upward structural breaks in 1996, 2004 and 2011 respectively. One per cent increase in HDI of India led to 1.41% increase in growth rate during 1990-2016.This relationship between HDI and growth is co-integrated and they have no causality. Their VECM is stable but nonstationary and error correction is significant and fast for equationΔlogx3t.Moreover, one per cent rise in HDI per year led to 5.86% rise in GDP, 4.828 % increase in GDP per capita and 0.5028% decrease in unemployment rate per year respectively during 1990-2016 in India. Even, HDI has unidirectional causality with GDP and GDP per capita .There is positive association among GSDP and GSDP per capita with high plus medium human development and low human development states of India for those years. In Fixed effect model of panel data, the regression between of all states’ HDI and GSDP percapita is positive .This paper finds sigma convergence of HDI of all states. Only four states showed negative growth of HDI in spite of their rising trends of social sector expenditure. The paper recommended to enhance government expenditure on education and health including gender budgeting and FDI inflows.

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Econometric Analysis of the Developing Countries' Trade Indicators

Abstract: In this paper, the author attempted to study the patterns of the export and import shares of the developing countries and found out the relation of export and import share with its determinants like growth rate, inflation rate, FDI, current account balance, REER, concentration index, and diversification index respectively during 1980-2016 where FDI, REER, and diversification index significantly influenced the export and import shares respectively. Both the export and import shares have upward structural breaks and smooth cyclical trends. Their VAR models are unstable and non-stationary.
Keywords: Export shares; Import shares; Concentration index; Diversification index; Growth rate; foreign direct investment; Inflation rate; real effective exchange rate; Co integration; Vector auto regression
░ Introduction
The general macroeconomic fundamentals of the developing
countries are high inflation, low growth, high unemployment,
chronic BOPs deficits, and current account deficit, adverse
terms of trade, low shares of export and import, exchange rate
instability, poverty and inequality and so on. The banking and
financial system of these economies are not identical to the
developed countries. Yet in recent years from 21st century, the
revival of African economy, emerging Asian economies,
especially East Asia, Latin American development prospects
have shown great attention to the economists of the present
century. Even, terms of trade have gone in favor of the
developing economies, current account surplus of East Asia
and Euro Area outweigh US current account deficit which
provided flow of liquidity out of USA whose liability began to
increase by degrees. Even, monetary and trade integration in
Asia, Africa, and Latin America have been improved because
ASEAN common currency and African regional common
currencies have challenged US dollar hegemony. Obviously
exchange rate adjustment through floating exchange rate with
US dollar and other key currencies have not been gone in
favor of developed economies. Regional currencies in regional
trading blocs have started trade with their bloc currencies
.Therefore, international liquidity problem of the developing
countries somehow improved. The trading shares of the
developing countries are of very much important in context of
the development of the world economy as a whole. The author
presently gives importance on the developing countries’
international trade share so that the role of international
current account balance and terms of trade can be understood
easily. Therefore, the author studied the export and import
shares of the developing countries and their important
indicators during 1980-2016.
░ Literature Review
There are huge economic literatures on the developing
economies. Some of them are being introduced here. Jha [1]
described the developing countries’ basic indicators,
macroeconomic policies, trends of growth, inflation, exchange
rate, financial liberalization, international financial
architecture and IMF programme for the developing countries
in his book. UNCTAD [2] reported African recovery,
agricultural development and growth, agricultural exports, and
industrial competitiveness in details. SESRTCIC [3] published
a report on the development of OIC least developed member
countries and examined the trends in their major economic
indicators during 2000-2004. On the basis of the report, it
highlighted UN programme of action for LDC for 2001-2010
and suggested implementations. Bardhan & Mukherjee [4]
described trade off involved in decentralization and de facto
implementation is highly endogenous to the historical,
political, and economic context of the developing countries.
They did not explain a rigorous impact assessment and did not
offer generalization. The case studies they explained are India,
China, Pakistan, Brazil, Indonesia, Bolivia, Uganda and South
Africa.
UNCTAD Trade and Development Board (2010) published
LDC’s trends of growth, inflation, FDI inflows, BOPs and
recommended new development approach emphasizing
agriculture and food security, trade diversification, investment
promotion, infrastructure development, science technology
and innovation and south-south cooperation. Choudhury [5]
formulated macroeconomic models in the Klein-Timbergen
tradition and have been used to explain demand oriented
fluctuations and to deal with short run instability of output and
employment using stabilizing policies for the economy of
Malawi. Authors used Cobb-Doglous production function and
input output model for national accounts. Vegh Gramont &
Vegh [6] focused monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rate
policy, inflation, trends of growth of the developing countries.
They prescribed stabilization policy, process of dollarization,
BOPs crisis, and financial crises which induced the developing
countries. Nayyar [7] presented a large number of empirical
observations regarding the gap between the less developed
nations and the more developed countries from 1820 to
2010.He analyzed the trade, growth, inequality,
industrialization between less developed and developed

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JUST PUBLISHED

    JUST RELEASED

DEVELOPMENTAL ISSUES OF TRIBES

EDITED BY Dr. DEBESH  BHOWMIK

SHANDILYA  PUBLICATIONS

NEW DELHI
THE BOOK IS BEING RELEASED BY DATUK DR. HJH BIBI FLORINA,PRO CHANCELLOR,PROF.DR.AMIYA,VICE CHANCELLOR,DATIN  DR.HAFIZAH,DEAN FACULTY OF NURSING WITH DR.SANDEEP ,SENIOR RESEARCH DIRECTOR,LINCOLN UNIVERSITY COLLEGE,MALAYSIA.

     EDITED BY

             Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

               Foreword by

PROF. MARGUERITE WOTTO

Associate Professor

Researcher, Trainer (CIEF)

UQAM, Université du Quebéc à

Montreal, Canada

DR. MONICA PAGANINI

Economist

(Specialist for Asia and the Pacific)

at Investment Centre Division, FAO, Rome, Italy

Research Analyst and Lead Consultant

World Bank Group

LILIANA LOPA

Department of Finance and Credit

Sumy State University

Managing Editor

Journal of Socio-Economic Challenges

And Academic Department Administrator

Sumy State University, Ukraine

CONTENTS

PART I

ISSUES OF DEVELOPMENT OF INDIGENOUS PEOPLE

IN PERU, INDIA, ETHIOPIA AND MALAYSIA

1. Peruvian Natives and Indigenous Communities

and Access to the Titling of its Lands ........3

Pecho Pecho Elias Gustavo and

Segovia Solis Tiffany Brissette

2. Oil Spills in the Peruvian Amazon ..........11

Pecho Pecho Elias Gustav

3. The Right for Autonomy of Indigenous Peoples in the

Peruvian Amazon : Between Recognition and

Violation (Violation or Valuation) .............21

Diana Silvana Torres Polanco and

Diego Mauricio Paucar Villacorta

4. Indigenous Languages in Danger of Extinction in a

Globalized World in Peru ................38

Gabriel La Rosa Gloria Melissa and

Pecho Pecho Elias Gustavo

5. The Cooking and Feeding Habit of Tribal People :

An Advantage over Modern Civilization ...........54

Sandeep Poddar

6. A Dire Situation of Tribes in Ethiopia .............62

Surajit Ghosal

PART II

SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF INDIAN TRIBES

7. Tribal Poverty in Odisha ...............81

Sandhya Rani Das

8. Socio-economic Development of PVTGs in India :

Problems and Solutions ..............92

Himanshu Agarwal

9. Contextualizing Microfinance and Economic Growth :

The Tribal Women Empowerment Imperative .........106

Sovik Mukherjee

10. Sustainable Tribal Development :

Problems, Prospects, Policies and Cases ........120

Manjula Upadhyay

11. Role of Traditional Knowledge Digital Library (TKDL)

in Protecting India’s Traditional Knowledge ..........135

Anindya Bhukta

PART III

INDIGENOUS PEOPLE AND THEIR EXISTENCE

12. Survival of Indigenous People :

Environment Protection and Conservation ..........143

Debesh Bhowmik

There are many books, essays, articles, researches on the issues of tribal people and tireless efforts are going on continuing researche about them. This book is one of the efforts on the studies of development of the tribes where 12 research articles have been incorporated which are contributed by some Indian professors and by some professors from abroad.

The book covers a wide range of issues of development of tribes, namely, Peruvian tribes’ land ownership, environmental hazards from oil spills in Peruvian Amazon, their recognition and

violation in the Amazon, tribal poverty and tribal developmental

problems and policies in India, tribal women empowerment in

India, problems and solutions of PVTGs of India, environment free

traditional cooking and feeding habits and protection of traditional

knowledge of tribal people and so on. The socio-economic

development and dire situation of Ethiopian tribes were also

described. How tribal people in this globe have been surviving

against eviction in the process of conservation, although they are

contributing to forest environment and ecosystem, is also

incorporated in this book.

The book will obviously help to the researchers who are

interested in the tribal development. Even, the students who will

study on the tribal development will also be benefited.

Published by

SHANDILYA PUBLICATIONS

760, Pocket-D, Lok Nayak Puram, New Delhi - 110 041

Phone : 011-65559929 • Mobile : 9811966858, 9999770680

Email : shandilyapublications@gmail.com

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Typeset by : Rahul Composers, New Delhi - 110 041

Printed in India at : Mayur Enterprises, WZ Plot No. 3, Gujjar Market

Tihar Village, New Delhi - 110 018

Price-780/-

BOOK RELEASED

ISSUES ON TRIBAL DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RELEASED ON 15 MAY,2018 IN BHAIRAB GANGULI COLLEGE,KOLKATA DURING WORKSHOP.

THE BOOK IS RELEASED BY VICE CHANCELLOR OF WEST BENGAL STATE UNIVERSITY,KOLKATA

Issues on Tribal Development

Editors

Dr. Debesh Bhowmik

Sourav Kumar Das

In collaboration with

Belur Research Association of Social Science, Kolkata

93/2/4, Dharmatala Road, P.O: Belur Math,

District: Howrah, State: West Bengal, India, Pin: 711202

Registration No.: S/2L 56036 of 2016–17

email: brassindia2016@gmail.com

Publisher---RUPALI, KOLKATA

The book consists of 18 articles.The foreword has been written by Prof. Dr. Ratnakar D B

Director (Academics), International Multidisciplinary Research Foundation, India.

President, RPM Research & Educational Society, India.

Member, Board of Directors, DRPF University, Macedonia. Member, Centre for Scientific Research & Education, Sri Lanka.

It covers wide range of themes on tribal development .About historical development on tribe, Dr.Debesh Bhowmik studied about the origin, evolutionary process in ancient India, categories of tribes in Europe, America, Africa and their livelihood patterns. On political development, the problem of displacement of tribes was explained through an article of Nidhi Chowdhury. There are innumerable Sociological factors allied with history which affect the development of tribes that is explained in an important article written by Prof.Kousik Chattopadhyay. Prof.Sudin Chattopadhyay ,in his essay,expressed that Santhals were Historically  oppressed,deprived and were treated as slave during British empire

in India. How did they unitedly revolt against British colonial rule was exclusively designed by the author.Prof.Gustavo Pcho explained the socio-political status of the tribes of Peru showing their housing,food,livelihood,recognition and employment scenario in comparison to general citizens in a nice way.On gender studies of tribes, emphasis was given to inequalityof educational opportunities, employment opportunities, social deprivation and exploitation and women empowerment by Prof Ramnaresh Thakur and Shib sankar Hembram. Consumption

patterns and consumption variation of different tribes of West Bengal were theoretically and empirically examined in a nice way by Sourav Kumar Das,Jagannath Biswas and Soumik

Majumder. Health care facilities, infrastructure of tribal health care, tribal diseases, recommended health policies of tribes in India have been incorporated from the studies of Suvojit Pahari and Dr.Debesh Bhowmik .Literacy problem and of tribal education

and educational attainments of tribes in India are clearly shown in three articles,one by Debjani Mitra (Sarker) and Sudipta Sarker , two by Prof C.B.Singh and Prof.Ankita Jasmina Lall and three by Dr.Aruni Kumar. Socio-economic and cultural development of tribes in the Tharus of Uttarakhand were exemplified by Prof.D.K.P.Chaudhary and Prof.Manoj Kumar Tripathi. On finance and entrepreneurship of tribes, role of micro-finance among tribal women households and other male tribes in tribal areas of West Bengal have been emphasized by an article of Bhajan Chandra Burman. Causes of poverty, poverty stricken tribes in Indian

provinces and the policies of amelioration are also included in this book written by Dr.Bibekananda Basu. Employment opportunities of tribes through MGNREGS in tribal districts of West Bengal were empirically studied by Prof.Kishore Naskar. Prof. Debasish Biswas showed the impact of deforestation and forest policy of India on the tribal people who have been suffering a lot in housing and livelihood especially in North-East India.

This book will be helpful to the students who work in the areas of tribal development.This book may be useful to the policy makers too.

Chapter 1

Tribal Development: History and Theory

In Search of the Tribes around the World

Debesh Bhowmik ................................................................................................3

From Jana to Nitibe: A Critique of Postmodern Concept nationalization

of Tribal Development

Kaushik Chattopadhyay....................................................................................44

Debating Tribal Disadvantages: Development Induced Displacement

Nidhi Chowdhary..............................................................................................73

The Santhals and The Hool of 1855

Sudin Chattopadhyay........................................................................................83

Chapter 2

Gender Studies on Tribal Development

Gender Inequality in Education among the Tribes of West Bengal

and Related Issues

Shibthakur Hembram........................................................................................92

Problems of Tribal Women: Obstacles in the Way of Development

Ram Naresh Thakur........................................................................................ 110

Chapter 3

Consumption, Health and Education Status of Tribes

Literacy among Tribes in India

Aruni Kumar................................................................................................... 132

Theoretical Background of Consumption Variation of Major Tribes

Across Regions in West Bengal

Sourav Kr Das, Jagannath Biswas and Soumik Kanti Ghosh........................142

x Issues on Tribal Development

Glipse of Tribal Education in India

Debjani Mitra and Sudipta Sarkar.................................................................174

Health Issues in Tribes in West Bengal: A Critical Appraisal

Suvojit Pahari and Debesh Bhowmik.............................................................190

Chapter 4

Socio-Economic Development of Tribes

Socio-Economic Development of Tribes in India

C.B.Singh and Ankita Jasmina Lall................................................................208

SHIPIBOS – KONIBOS IN LIMA: The Struggle of an Amazonian

Native Town In A Jungle Of Concrete

PechoPecho, Elias Gustavo............................................................................222

Forest or Farm: Conservation and Impact of Relocation

on the Tharus of Uttarakhand

D.K.P. Chaudhary and Manoj Kumar Tripathi...............................................238

Chapter 5

Finance and Enterpreneurship of Tribes

Impact of Micro Finance on Tribal Household: A study of Jangal Mahal

Area of Bankura District

Ratan Saha...................................................................................................... 251

Micro-Finance and Development of Tribal Women: A case study

Bhajan Chandra Burman................................................................................264

Chapter 6

Poverty and Inequality of Tribes

On Poverty and Tribal Development

Bibekananda Basu..........................................................................................279

Chapter 7

Employment opportunity of tribes

Performance of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Gurantee

Scheme(MGNREGS) in West Bengal with Special Reference to Tribal

Region (Bankura, Paschim Medinipur and Purulia)

Kishore Naskar...............................................................................................302

Chapter 8

Forest Resource, Forest Policy and Tribal Development

Movement of Tribals to Save the Biodiversity of Forest with Special

Reference to North-East India

Debasish Biswas.............................................................................................338

Bibliography ..................................................................................................349

An Econometric Analysis of World GDP Share of India during 1960-2015

SocioEconomic Challenges, Volume 2, Issue 1, 2018
(SUMY STATE UNIVERSITY,UKRAINE)

An Econometric Analysis of World GDP Share of India during 1960-2015

Debesh Bhowmik
PhD, Retired Principal and Associated with The Indian Econometric Society, India

Abstract

In this paper author attempted to analyse India’s international GDP share during 1960-2015 with the help of econometric models taking the data from the World Bank. Semilog linear trend model and exponential trend model were used to find the trend of growth. Variance ratio test was used to show random walk. AR(1) model was used to show stationary, convergence and oscillations. ARIMA (1,1,1) model was tested for the stationary of the series. Forecast for 2035 of the AR(1) and ARIMA(1,1,1) models verified stationary long term patterns. Bai-Perron (2003) model explained to show structural breaks and the study of Bartoletto, Chiarini, Marzano & Piselli (2015) was followed to compute peaks, troughs, durations of cycles, amplitudes and slopes of both the short and medium cycles during 1960-2015. Hodrick-Prescott Filter (1997) model minimized the cycles for smoothness of trend of GDP share.The paper concludes that international GDP share of India has decreased at the rate of 0.459% per year during 1960-2015 and declined exponentially at the rate 0.259% per year significantly. The growth rate of the GDP share is downward sloping significantly till 2030.
It follows random walk without drift. Its AR(1) is stable, convergence and stationary. Forecast for 2035 of AR(1) is also converging. ARIMA(1,1,1) is stable and non-stationary and suffers from AC and PAC problems. Its forecast model for 2035 is tending towards stationary insignificantly. GARCH (1,1) showed excessive volatility. It has two downward structural breaks in 1968 and 1988 and one upward break in 2006 which are significant. The paper verified short and medium cycles to calculate peaks and troughs, duration of downturn and upturn, amplitude and slope of the cycles respectively. HP filter model makes the cycle more smooth with only one trough assuming lamda comprises 1600 but symmetric and asymmetric filter showed two peaks and two troughs. The frequency response function clarified its peaks and amplitude of cycle clearly.Keywords: international GDP share, exponential growth, structural break, non-stationary, HP filter, peaks,trough.

JEL Classification: N13, N15, O21, O24, O57, O10.
© The Author, 2018. This article is published with open access at Sumy State University.

1. Introduction

The world’s GDP share of India is an important indicator which can explain the nature of Indian economic development in comparison to other international economies. During ancient past of economic development of India, it was evident that India’s world GDP share was highest till 1500 AD and India was the dominant country. During 1500-1650, China was dominant followed by India, and then during 1650-1750, India was dominant followed by China. Since 1870, the world scenario changed rapidly due to rise in western civilization and industrial revolution where Europe was the dominant country and India and Chinese GDP started to decline rapidly. After the First and the Second World Wars, USA’s dominance in trade, finance and commerce outweigh UK dominance and USA became the largest GDP share holder in the world up till now. And India’s share has been falling till 1993, and then upswing started in but it is too little in comparison to other nations. During 1AD, India’s share was 33%,followed by 30% in 1000AD,24% in 1500-1700AD, 17% in 1820AD,7% in 1913, and now it is 2.79% in 2015 respectively. But, within 2025, China will recover his previous historical dominance in terms of GDP in the world. In Figure 1, India, China and other nations’ world GDP shares are plotted during 1AD-2008AD for comparative study.

http://armgpublishing.sumdu.edu.ua/journals/sec/volume-2-issue-1/article-4/

Financial Crises and Nexus Between Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment

Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, Volume 2, Issue 1, 2018

(Sumy State University,Ukraine)

Financial Crises and Nexus Between Economic Growth and

Foreign Direct Investment

Debesh Bhowmik

Dr., Retired Principal and Associated with International Institute for Development Studies, Kolkata, Life member, Indian Economic Association, The Indian Econometric Society, Bengal Economic

Association, Ex.Associate Editor-Arthabeekshan-The Journal of Bengal Economic Association,Residence, India.

Abstract

In this paper, author tried to find relation of foreign direct investment inflows with its determinants like growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, fiscal deficit, openness in India during 1971-2015 through causality, co-integration and vector error correction models. In this paper, it was attempted to explain clearly that how foreign direct investment inflows and outflows have changed during several financial crises in different regions of the world since 1970s in support with a historical analysis over global financial crises. The paper concludes that FDI inflows in India has been catapulting at the rate of 21.56% per year during 1971-2015 and exponentially at the rate of 0.6044% per year significantly. It has four upward structural breaks in 1985, 1994, 2000 and 2006 respectively during the specified period. FDI inflows in India has causal relation uni-directionally with fiscal deficit, and bi-directionally with inflation, exchange rate, interest rate and growth rate during 1971-2015.Johansen co-integration test confirmed that Trace Statistic contains four co-integrating equations and Max Eigen Statistic has three co-integrating equations. VECM is stable, non-stationary and not

good fit for four estimated equations and error corrections for the equations of change of interest rate and inflation rate showed significant with speeds of 23% and 103% per year. The paper also concludes that FDI does not cause Granger financial crises, but financial crises do cause Granger FDI.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, economic growth, financial crises, co-integration, vector error correction.

JEL Classification: C23, C33, F21, F01, O55.

Introduction

Foreign Direct Investment has several dimensions. It affects host countries’ balance of payments and development process. It has long run effects on economic growth and sustainable development which depend on the character of FDI. However, the nexus between growth and FDI is indeterminate since it varies from region to region, country to country and from period to period although the globalization, liberalization and privatization drives accelerated the speed of the nexus towards positive direction irrespective of the distribution of income. Historically, FDI changes from merchants’ capital to multinational investments, from imperialistic attitude to trade domination through economic integration (via financial integration) in international trade and finance.

FDI does not cause crises directly, but it has indirect causes of bubbles and busts. Debt finance through FDI may stimulate debt burden under recession. Financial and banking crises may emerge if FDI in banking sector find losses and shut downs. Yet we cannot avoid the fact that FDI does not Granger cause of financial crises

but financial crises do Granger cause FDI changes which were observed in all the financial crises in the world.

Since the Baring crisis in 1870, India’s FDI was dominated by British imperialism through East India Company whose chief competitors were Dutch East India Company, Danish East India Company, Portuguese East India Company, French East India Company and Swedish East India Company respectively. In 1913, India’s foreign investment stood 35% of GDP and per capita foreign investment was 6 dollar at 1900 US dollar and foreign

direct investment as percent of domestic capital stock was 9%.Presently,India’s FDI inflows is very low in comparison to other countries ,e.g. in 2017 , India’s FDI was accounted as 1.9% of GDP and government of India expects it to rise to 2.5% of GDP with in next five years. In 2017, Mauritius was the top donor country to India comprising 11.47 billion US Dollar followed by Singapore 5.29 billion US Dollar, Netherlands 1.95 billion US Dollar, USA 1.33 billion US Dollar and Germany 934 million US Dollar respectively. As on 2017, Service sector is leading the sectoral distribution of FDI i.e. 8.68 billion US Dollar followed by

telecommunication 5.56 billion US Dollar, Computer hardware and software 3.65 billion US Dollar, Trading..............

APPLICATIONS OF ECONOMETRICS IN ECONOMICS---BOOK REVIEW

BOOK REVIEW-- In Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, Volume 2, Issue 1, 2018,Ukraine Sumy State University. 

BY

PROF.DANTE A.URBINA

LIMA,PERU

Application of Econometrics in Economics

Dante A. Urbina

University of Lima.

© The Author, 2018. This article is published with open access at Sumy State University.

Bhowmik, D. (2017). Applications of Econometrics in Economics. New Delhi: Synergy Books, 332 pages,

1695 rupees, ISBN 978-93-82059-49-3.

According to Karl Popper, one of 20th century’s greatest philosophers of science, “theories are nets cast to

catch what we call ´the world´: to rationalize, to explain, and to master it”. And that is right. Scientists and

researchers seek to catch reality by mean of theories. In the case of economics, we seek to catch “economic

reality”. We have economic theories. In fact, there are several approaches within economic theory (neoclassical

economics, behavioral economics, institutionalism, post-Keynesianism, etc.). But we need specific tools and

methods in order to evaluate in a rigorous way the connection between our theories and economic reality. In

that context, econometrics become a very important aspect of research in economics.

So, in the book Applications of Econometrics in Economics, which is a compilation of Debesh Bhowmik’s

papers, we can find several demonstrations of this in practice since Dr. Bhowmik shows how econometrics

can be used in several ways to perform interesting and relevant research with respect to different aspects of

economic reality (namely, growth, inflation, employment, productivity, crisis, international trade,

globalization, financial integration, poverty, inequality, etc.). In that vein, he writes: “Nowadays, quantitative

economics plays an important role in theory and in practice where econometric models and their applications

in the economic analysis have acquired both the educational values and policy prescriptions” (p. xvii).

Basically, the econometric applications in the book are focused on time series analysis. For example, in the

paper “Causes behind the euro crisis”, Bhowmik uses ARIMA and GARCH models and he find that “nominal

euro/dollar exchange rate is stationary, convergent and volatile during 1999Q1-2015Q2” (p. 1). In addition,

there are several papers which use cointegration analysis like “An analysis of convergence and cointegration

of sectoral shares and growth in India”, “Cointegration between world trade, gold and SDR” and “Convergence

and cointegration of credit deposit ratio and Indian economic growth”. Relevant tests as the Granger causality

test are also applied and interesting results are obtained. For instance, in the paper “Economic growth, foreign

direct investment and financial crisis” it is found that “FDI does not cause Granger financial crises but financial

crises do cause Granger FDI” (p. 57). The book also includes applications of VAR models, which have the

important advantage that they allow to avoid endogeneity problems given that in this kind of models all the

variables are considered as endogenous. Thus, in the paper “Cointegration and VAR analysis in Indian growthunemployment-inflation linkages” it is concluded that “the policy makers should choose either inflation or

unemployment as the target variable to achieve specified growth rate and formulate other macroeconomic

policies” (p. 191). We can also find applications of the specific variant known as vector error correction model

(VECM). For example, in the paper “Is there any relation between gold price and inflation in India” one of the

main results is that “the estimated VECM states that the first difference gold price is significantly related with

the change of inflation rate (percentage change in CPI) and the change of WPI [wholesale price index] of the

previous periods and even related with the change of gold price of the previous period significantly” (p. 231).

However, it must also be said that the book has limitations. As was mentioned previously, it has several

applications of time series analysis. But there are no detailed applications of data panel analysis (in general

this is only mentioned in the section “Literature review” of some papers). So, I am very much of the opinion

that it would be valuable to include that in a next edition of the book because data panel methods (random

effects models, fixed effects models, Arellano-Bond estimators, panel cointegration analysis, etc.) are very

important in applied research.

By other hand, Bhowmik’s discussions also include valuable comments about the conditions for a rigorous

application of econometric tools. For example, in the paper “Poverty, inequality and globalization with special

reference to India”, he says: “India’s database is very poor in comparison to other developed nations. The

collection, compilation and interpretation data through NSS should be more scientific and modernized. More

emphasis must be given in collecting time series data in poverty, inequality and globalization so that policy

prescription through measuring modern tools can be applied in the framework of planning” (p. 278).

Thus, it is clear that Dr. Bhowmik’s book is of considerable importance for applied econometricians because

it addresses very diverse topics using different econometric tools with great mastery. Of course, like any

econometric analysis and result, what is presented in this book is debatable because it depends on numerous

methodological and procedural choices. But this is something that affects every work of applied econometrics.

The point is that, if we have the data (which would be our quantitative connection with reality), we can validly

discuss different methodological approximations in order to “catch” economic reality in quantitative models

with relevant qualitative meaning. In that context, the book explains in detail how data is processed and this

allows the discussion. And from discussion comes out the light. So, this book will help to illuminate our path

to a better and deeper understanding of economic reality.