Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Sunday, 5 February 2017

CARBON TRADING AND INDIA'S ROAD MAP


CARBON TRADING AND INDIA'S ROAD MAP
              ---Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT,AGRICULTURE AND BIO-TECHNOLOGY
             ----VOL-2,ISSUE-1,JANUARY-FEBRUARY ,2017,118-126
             -----www.ijeab.com

CARBON TRADING AND  INDIA’S ROAD MAP
Dr.Debesh Bhowmik(Retired principal and Former Associate Editor-Arthabeekshan-the journal of Bengal Economic Association)
Abstract
In this article, the author describes the concept of carbon trading , its global market ,mechanism of global trading, international organization, EUETS, relationship between  REDD and carbon market in relation with agreements of Paris convention. The 10 myths of REDD+ and carbon market are additional features which can explore future research. The paper highlighted India’s roadmap for carbon market potentiality in 2020.
Key words – carbon trading, global carbon market, REDD, India’s road map
JEL-F18,O44,Q56


I.What is Carbon Trading
Carbon trading is the buying and selling of a new, artificially-created commodity – the right to emit carbon dioxide. Unlike trading in other commodities like crude oil or bananas, carbon trading is not a voluntary exchange between producers and those who want to consume or sell on the goods. Instead, it results from action by governments to create this new commodity – the right to emit carbon – and then to limit the availability of this right in order to create scarcity and therefore a market for it.
Carbon trading is one of a number of different approaches that have been developed and adopted by governments as a means of controlling the amount of carbon dioxide that is emitted into the atmosphere and reducing this amount over time. It is based on the broader approach, purportedly to control the emission of pollutants, known as ‘cap and trade’.
Cap and trade is often referred to as a market-based mechanism and contrasted with a different set of tools available to governments to influence behaviours, those which come under the umbrella of direct regulation or standard setting. However, this contrasting of market-based and non-market-based approach is sometimes unhelpful. It ignores the fact that market mechanisms do not operate in a vacuum. Instead, they always take place in a social and economic environment underpinned by various government laws and regulations and often require these laws in order to be effective. Carbon trading is a case in point. Carbon markets are directly created by government regulation.
Perhaps a more useful distinction for the purposes of this report is that between direct and indirect mechanisms. Carbon trading can be classed as an indirect tool as it is supposed to achieve its purpose of reducing emissions indirectly by affecting the price of those emissions. This in turn affects the behaviour of ‘actors’ in the market, i.e. those responsible for producing the emissions, by creating an incentive for them to save money by reducing their emissions and hence change their behaviour. In contrast, government regulation and standard setting are direct interventions to change behaviour, not reliant on intermediate mechanisms such as prices. Taxation is an indirect mechanism as it aims to change behaviour through affecting the price of a good, service or activity. However, it is arguably less indirect than trading as governments fix the price with a tax whereas with trading the price is determined by the market.
The carbon trade is an idea that came about in response to the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol is an agreement under which industrialized countries will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions between the years 2008 to 2012 to levels that are 5.2% lower than those of 1990.
The idea behind carbon trading is quite similar to the trading of securities or commodities in a market place. Carbon would be given an economic value, allowing people, companies or nations to trade it. If a nation bought carbon, it would be buying the rights to burn it, and a nation selling carbon would be giving up its rights to burn it. The value of the carbon would be based on the ability of the country owning the carbon to store it or to prevent it from being released into the atmosphere. A market would be created to facilitate the buying and selling of the rights to emit greenhouse gases. The industrialized nations for which reducing emissions is a daunting task could buy the emission rights from another nation whose industries do not produce as much of these gases. The market for carbon is possible because the goal of the Kyoto Protocol is to reduce emissions as a collective.
On the one hand, the idea of carbon trade seems like a win-win situation: greenhouse gas emissions may be reduced while some countries reap economic benefit. On the other hand, critics of the idea suspect that some countries will exploit the trading system and the consequences will be negative. While the proposal of carbon trade does have its merits, debate over this type of market is inevitable since it involves finding a compromise between profit, equality and ecological concerns.
The carbon market is one of the most effective policies for tackling climate change. It inspires operational excellence and incentivizes business investments in low-carbon technologies. Not only is the market expected to save over 2 billion tones of CO2 emissions by the end of 2012, but the development of the current global carbon market, now worth over US$140 billion, has catapulted climate change to the forefront of business decisions. But while it exhibits real environmental and economic impact, and helps achieve climate change goals, it remains vulnerable to external factors.


The Harnessing demand for Indian projects post-2012 are :
1.            Supporting projects through domestic emission trading scheme –
2.            Supporting projects through NCEF and CSR funds of large companies
3.            Developing standardized baselines
4.             Developing sustainable development impact reporting
5.Evaluating and highlighting the benefits of CDM projects focusing on sustainable development Impacts
6. Constituting a high level Multi Stakeholder Advisory Group for Climate Change issues
like Loss and Damage, Equity, Sustainable Development, Gender etc
7. Developing NAMAs
8. Developing the capacity for national emission reduction reporting and develop credible
and robust reporting frameworks for corporate carbon reporting–
But there are several causes of delays of maturing projects which are as follows:
[i] One of the major reasons for delays in registration of CDM projects is on account of lack of acceptable guidelines for setting benchmark, lack of institutional capacity, frequent revisions to CDM EB guidelines and lengthy validation cycle
[ii] The delay in registration of CDM projects was due to the increase in CDM projects from India and limited increase in the number of DOEs
[iii] The cement and energy efficiency project-types have higher rejection rate than hydro and wind project-types
[iv]Projects in reforestation, EE household, EE in SME, off-grid solar and agriculture project-types face MRV, organizational and financial barriers.
[v] HFC 23, N2O and landfill gas(where these is no energy generation) projects risk closure post the withdrawal of market support and fall in CER prices
[vi] Goa, Bihar, Jharkhand, Kerala, Jammu & Kashmir, Haryana and North Eastern states have very limited development of CDM projects
The promotion and development of the emission reduction projects will require a combination of the following measures:
[i] Demand-side measures: Given the weak demand for CERs and the uncertain time frame for new market mechanisms, all attempts should be made to revive demand in the existing regulatory framework, particularly for projects registered post 2012.
[ii] Improving sustainable development impacts: Improving the sustainable development impacts
as well as improving communication on the outcomes / impacts of CDM project activities is required for stimulating demand of quality CDM projects and addressing international concerns.
[iii] Efficiency of registration: Once there is a revival of demand, measures should be undertaken
to remove the barriers in CDM project registration while also improving sustainable development impacts.
[iv] Future regulatory mechanisms: Recognizing that CDM is likely to be transitory in nature
and new market mechanisms are likely to be more prominent particularly in the post 2020
carbon markets, measures should be undertaken to develop synergies between CDM, NAMAs
and other market mechanisms.
[v] Supply side measures: Once there is regulatory certainty and robust demand, supply side
measures should be undertaken that encourage larger participation of industry in emerging
global carbon / CDM market.
Therefore, the recommendations below are targeted towards:
A. Harnessing demand for Indian projects post 2012;
B. Achieving better sustainable development for CDM projects;
C. Developing synergies between CDM, NAMAs and other market mechanisms; and
D. Encouraging larger participation of industry in carbon market.
IX.Concluding Remarks
The international carbon market currently faces considerable uncertainties regarding its future architecture. There are a number of options for further development,including a global trading approach building on Kyoto, formal linkages of domestic ETS leading to a global CO2 market, and indirect linkages through credits if domestic ETS remain otherwise unconnected. Also, a mixed approach is conceivable. Regions should share a common understanding on the overall
climate policy goal (e.g., the 2°C target) as well as a burden-sharing rule translating into ETS caps. These two fundamental issues will crucially determine the level of ambition of an ETS as expressed in (a) the emission cap, which in combination with amount and costs of available abatement options of a region crucially determines the allowance price level; and (b) ETS design features also exerting influence on the allowance price level and environmental outcome. For a player with ambitious environmental targets it should be preferable to announce that it will link only under the condition that another system displays a similar level of ambition, thus using the
efficiency and potential reputational benefits from linking as a bargaining chip. Linking to less ambitious regions would undermine the credibility of such announcements. Harmonization of trading systems should start as early as possible in order to enable the option of linking ETS post-2012. For this purpose, ICAP could be a nucleus for such an international clearinghouse.


References
[1]Angelsen,Arid.,Gierloff,Caroline Wang ,Beltran,Angelica Mendoza & Elzen,Michel den . (2014).REDD Credits in a global carbon market:Options and Impacts.NORDEN.
[2]Anger, N., Dixon,A & Livengood,E.(2009). Interactions of Reduced Deforestation and the Carbon Market. The Role of Market Regulations and Future Commitments.Center for European Economic Research: Discussion Paper No. 09–001.

[3]Baron, R.& Bygrave,S.(2002). Towards International Emissions Trading: Design
implications for linkages. IEA/OECD Paper
[4]Bhowmik,Debesh.(2017).An Introduction to Climate Change,Synergy Books India Ltd, NewDelhi.
[5]Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Internationale Zusammenarbeit.(2014,January).Carbon Market Road Map for India,BMUB Global Carbon Market Project,NewDelhi.
[6]Edenhofer, Ottmar, Flachsland,Christian & Marschinski,Robert.(2007,May). Towards a global CO2 market. Expertise for the Policy Planning Staff in the Federal Foreign Office. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

[7]Ellermann, Denny.(2012). Linking Emissions Trading Schemes: Back to the Basics; paper presented on 12 November 2012 at the ZEW Conference “Rise of ETS in Asia”
[8]Ellis, J.&Tirpak,D.(2006). Linking GHG Emission Trading Systems and Markets.
IEA/OECD Paper.
[9]German Emission Trading Authority.(2013).Linking Different Emissions Trading System: Current State and Future Perspectives,Berlin.
[10]Hausotter, Tobias.,Sibyl,Steuer & Dennis,Tanzler.( 2011). Competitiveness and Linking of Emission Trading Systems (UBA Climate Change 01/2011) http://www.umweltdaten.de/publikationen/fpdf-l/4051.pdf
[11]Karsenty,A.(2009).‘What the (carbon) market cannot do.’ CIRARD. http://www.cirad.fr/en/news/all-news-items/articles/2009/just-out/perspective
[12]Moyes, T.E.(2008). Greenhouse gas emission trading in New Zealand: Trailblazing
comprehensive cap and trade. Ecology L.Q. 911
[13]Murray, B. C., Lubowski,R & Sohngen,B. (2009). Including International Forest
Carbon Incentives in Climate Policy: Understanding the Economics. Nicholas Institute Report. Durham, NC: Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University.
[14]Pirard, R.(2008). ‘The fight against deforestation (REDD+): economic implications of market-based funding.’ Paris: IDDRI.
[15]Pizer, William.(2007). Practical Global Climate Policy. In: Aldy, Joseph E., and Robert
N. Stavins (2007): Architectures for Agreement. Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post-Kyoto World. Cambridge University Press

[16]Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.(2008).Developing the International Carbon Market:Linking Options for EUETS,NZ
[17]Tangen, Kristian & Hasselknippe,Henrik.(2005,March).Converging Markets.International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics. Volume 5, No 1.

[18]The Carbon Trust.(2008). Global Carbon Mechanisms: emerging lessons and implications. UK: Carbon Trust, p. 11.
[19]The Munden Project.(2011).REDD+ and forest carbon. http://www.mundenproject.com/ forestcarbonreport2.pdf
[20]The RAIN FOREST FOUNDATION.(2011,June).REDD+  and Carbon Market:10 Myths exploded,Green peace.
[21]UNEP.(2010). Bringing forest carbon projects to the market, New York.

[22]UNFCCC.(2010b). Quantified economy-wide emission targets for 2020- Appendix I.

[23]Victor, David.(2007). Fragmented carbon markets and reluctant nations: implications for
the design of effective architectures. In:Aldy, Joseph E., and Robert N. Stavins (2007): Architectures for Agreement. Addressing Global Climate Change in the Post-Kyoto World. Cambridge University Press

[24]World Bank .(2011,June). State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2011. Carbon Finance at
the World Bank, Washington DC.
[25]Zetterberg, Lars.( 2012). Linking the Emissions Trading Systems in EU and California, Fores, Stockholm http://fores.se/assets/780/FORES-California_ETS-web.pdf



 

Sunday, 29 January 2017

Behaviour and Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate of India"






MBA Department of Vidyasagar University organised a two days International Seminar during 25-26 January,2017 on Recent Innovations in Management,Accounting Business and Entrepreneurship.
I have presented a paper on "Behaviour and Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate of India"The details of the paper is given below.






In this paper,author endeavours to establish the patterns and trends of Real Effective Exchange Rate of India during 1970-2015 and tries to show the determinants of REER eg,growth rate,current account deficit as per cent of GDP,per cent of openness, foreign direct investment inflows, and foreign exchange reserves excluding gold.The author used semi-log,double log linear and exponential model,autoregession,ARIMA ,GARCH models for trends and volatility.Bai-Perron (2003) model was applied to show structural breaks and Hodrick-Prescott (1997 ) model was applied for smoothness of cyclical trend.Johansen (1988, 1991, 1996) models were used to fit cointegration test and vector error correctons.Residual tests were done to verify autocorrelations, normality and impulse response functions were found to show stability and convergence.
                      The paper concludes that REER has been declining at the rate 0.4085 per cent per year which is insignificant at 5% level during 1970-2015 but it is exponentially declining at the rate of 0.2028 per cent which is significant.AR(1) of REER is convergent,stationary and significant but AR(2) is convergent ,nonstationary and insignificant.Even ARIMA(1,1,1) is nonstationary because AR(1) is stationary but MA(1) is nonstationary.GARCH(1,1) showed insignificant.Thus the series REER is highly volatile.This series contains five significant structural breaks in 1976,1986,1992,(downward)2004 and 2010(upward).It’s pattern is cyclical which was turned to smooth cycle.Trace statistic showed three cointegrating vectors and Max-Eigen Statistic showed two cointegrating vectors that verify cointegration in the order one.Vector Error Correction model is stable because all roots lie in the unit root circle but it is nonstationary because impulse response functions are diverging and error corrections are significant  only in degree of openness and FDI inflows in relating REER during 1970-2015 with one period lag.Residuals test of VECM confirmed non normality and autocorrelations.
         Only sound fiscal and monetary policy can control upward movement of REER so that significant relationships can be achieved with those selected determinants that would spur the growth of international trade.

Key words---Real Effective Exchange Rate, stationary,structural breaks, causality, cointegration,vector error correction
JEL-F15,F31,F32,F36,F43,O13,O24,O54
Behaviour and determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate of India

I.Introduction
Real Effective Exchange Rate is an important tool in managing international trade and finance and macroeconomic stability in an open economy. It influenced export and import prices and trade volumes. Appreciation and depreciation of REER determined terms of trade, openness, foreign exchange reserves of an economy to at great extent.FDI inflows and current account balance are largely depend on the REER because in the liberalized and globalised world the adjustment in balance of payments is largely correlated with the movement of REER.The REER is closely related with the nominal and real rate by definition when it is trade weighted or export weighted with group of countries. Exchange rate policy whether it is nominal or real controls national inflation and influenced international inflation in which interest rate differential is the crucial and key variable. Today, under globalization REER is closely related with the growth rate also since volatility of REER is the barrier of high growth in which volume of trade affects. According to Balassa-Samuelson effect,volatility of REER influenced export competitiveness and productivity.In calculating REER based with export or trade weighted 36 countries,RBI did not consider productivity.Even,India have not long run data on REER,and NEER. However,India could not predict well the nature of capital account convertibility,the productivity changes and terms of trade changes in relating to REER. Therefore, the task before RBI is crucial because policy of exchange rate also related with monetary and fiscal policies as well.
II.Objective of the study
This paper endeavours to study the behavior patterns of REER and its determinants in India during 1970-2015 where the author assumed that the basic determinants of REER are growth rate,current account deficit as per cent of GDP,openness of the economy,foreign direct investment inflows,foreign exchange reserves excluding gold and so on .The relation were calculated through cointegration and vector error correction models.The policies of REER and limitations of the paper are also the aims of this study. 


VIII.Conclusion
REER of India during 1970-2015 is significantly decreasing exponentially at the rate of0.2028% per year.AR(2),ARIMA(1,1,1) are non stationary, GARCH(1,1) is exstremely volatile.REER has five structural breaks in 1976,1986,1992,2004 and 2010 ,it follows random walk, REER has bidirectional causality with growth rate,current account balance,FDI inflows but unidirectional causality with openness and foreign exchange reserves.
Johansen unrestricted cointegration rank test among REER ,growth rate,current account deficit,trade openness,FDI inflows and foreign exchange reserves assured that Trace Statistic contains three cointegrating equations and Max Eigen Statistic contains two cointegrating equations which determined they are cointegrated in the order one, All the estimated equations of VECM are not good fit except Δx3t and Δx4t where error correction processes are significant and even the changes of variables are not related with previous period significantly.
TOT,NEER are not included,model could be explained in pre reform and post reform period and in different exchange rate regime.It is necessary to reduce inflation,to rise foreign exchange reserves,to increase trade surplus and to rise productivity which will lower cost that may decrease price level and REER.
More the protection the less is the REER volatility,so avoid capital account liberalization. Again,the higher the foreign exchange reserves the lower is the commodity TOT shock to REER which tends to lower volatility of REER. RBI is trying to resist volatility of REER and formulates [i] to develop skill in dealing spot and foreward market,[ii] to compete with FED rate by reducing interest rate,[iii] to increase in outflow of port folio which will call for new exchange rate and monetary policy,[iv] to allow alternative exchange rate policy to check appreciation of REER which enhance capital inflows,[v] to monitor excessive exchange rate depreciation which follows loss of foreign exchange reserves during macro economic shocks ,[vi] thus Rajan said India needs macroeconomic stability.