Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

Thursday 15 May 2014

Today is the birthday of P.A.Samuelson






Paul Anthony Samuelson (May 15, 1915 – December 13, 2009) was an American economist, and the first American to win the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. The Swedish Royal Academies stated, when awarding the prize, that he "has done more than any other contemporary economist to raise the level of scientific analysis in economic theory". Economic historian Randall E. Parker calls him the "Father of Modern Economics", and The New York Times considered him to be the "foremost academic economist of the 20th century".
He was author of the largest-selling economics textbook of all time: Economics: An Introductory Analysis, first published in 1948. It was the second American textbook to explain the principles of Keynesian economics and how to think about economics, and the first one to be successful, and is now in its 19th edition, having sold nearly 4 million copies in 40 languages. James Poterba, former head of MIT's Department of Economics, noted that by his book, Samuelson "leaves an immense legacy, as a researcher and a teacher, as one of the giants on whose shoulders every contemporary economist stands". In 1996, when he was awarded the National Medal of Science, considered America's top science honor, President Bill Clinton commended Samuelson for his "fundamental contributions to economic science" for over 60 years.
He entered the University of Chicago at age 16, during the depths of the Great Depression, and received his PhD in economics from Harvard. After graduating, he became an assistant professor of economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) when he was 25 years of age and a full professor at age 32. In 1966, he was named Institute Professor, MIT's highest faculty honor. He spent his career at MIT where he was instrumental in turning its Department of Economics into a world-renowned institution by attracting other noted economists to join the faculty, including Robert M. Solow, Franco Modigliani, Robert C. Merton, Joseph E. Stiglitz, and Paul Krugman, all of whom went on to win Nobel Prizes.
He served as an advisor to Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson, and was a consultant to the United States Treasury, the Bureau of the Budget and the President's Council of Economic Advisers. Samuelson wrote a weekly column for Newsweek magazine along with Chicago School economist Milton Friedman, where they represented opposing sides: Samuelson took the Keynesian perspective, and Friedman represented the Monetarist perspective. Samuelson died on December 13, 2009, at the age of 94.
During his seven decades as an economist, Samuelson's professional positions included:
  • Assistant Professor of Economics at M.I.T, 1940, Associate Professor, 1944.
  • Member of the Radiation Laboratory 1944–1945.
  • Professor of International Economic Relations (part-time) at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in 1945.
  • Guggenheim Fellowship from 1948 to 1949
  • Professor of Economics at MIT beginning in 1947 and Institute Professor beginning in 1962.
  • Vernon F. Taylor Visiting Distinguished Professor at Trinity University (Texas) in Spring 1989.
·         There are 388 papers to date in Samuelson's Collected Scientific Papers. Stanley Fischer (1987, p. 234) writes that taken together they are unique in their verve, breadth of economic and general knowledge, mastery of setting, and generosity of allusions to predecessors.
·         Samuelson is co-editor of Inside the Economist's Mind: Conversations with Eminent Economists (Blackwell Publishing, 2007), along with William A. Barnett, a collection of candid interviews with top economists of the 20th century.
He was influenced by Fischer,Klein,Merton,Solow,Phelps,Krugman and Stiglitz and he influenced Keynes,Schumpeter,Leontief,Haberler,Hansen,Wilson,Wicksell and Lindah

Sunday 11 May 2014

CLIMATE CHANGE IN 5200 YEARS AGO


Glaciologist Lonnie Thompson worries that he may have found clues that show history repeating itself, and if he is right, the result could have important implications to modern society.
Thompson has spent his career trekking to the far corners of the world to find remote ice fields and then bring back cores drilled from their centers. Within those cores are the records of ancient climate from across the globe.

 
 
 
From the mountains of data drawn by analyzing countless ice cores, and a meticulous review of sometimes obscure historic records, Thompson and his research team at Ohio State University are convinced that the global climate has changed dramatically.

But more importantly, they believe it has happened at least once before, and the results were nearly catastrophic to emerging cultures at the time. He outlined his interpretations and fears today at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union in San Francisco.

A professor of geological sciences at Ohio State and a researcher with the Byrd Polar Research Center, Thompson points to markers in numerous records suggesting that the climate was altered suddenly some 5,200 years ago with severe impacts.

He points to perfectly preserved plants he discovered that recently emerged from the Quelccaya ice cap in the Peruvian Andes as that glacier retreats. This monstrous glacier, some 551 feet (168 meters) deep, has shown an exponentially increasing rate of retreat since his first observations in 1963.

The plants were carbon-dated to determine their age and tests indicated they had been buried by the ice for perhaps 5,200 years. That suggests that somehow, the climate had shifted suddenly and severely to capture the plants and preserve them until now.

In 1991, hikers found the preserved body of a man trapped in an Alpine glacier and freed as it retreated. Later tests showed that the human  dubbed Oetzi  became trapped and died around 5,200 years ago.

Thompson points to a study of tree rings from Ireland and England that span a period of 7,000 years. The point in that record when the tree rings were narrowest suggesting the driest period experienced by the trees  was approximately 5,200 years ago.

He points to ice core records showing the ratio of two oxygen isotopes retrieved from the ice fields atop Africa's Mount Kilimanjaro. A proxy for atmospheric temperature at the time snow fell, the records are at their lowest 5,200 years before now.

He lists the shift by the Sahara Desert from a habitable region to a barren desert; major changes in plant pollen uncovered from lakebed cores in South America, and the record lowest levels of methane retrieved from ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica and all occurred at the same time  5,200 years ago.

Something happened back at this time and it was monumental, Thompson said." But it didn't seem monumental to humans then because there were only approximately 250 million people occupying the planet, compared to the 6.4 billion we now have."

The evidence clearly points back to this point in history and to some event that occurred. It also points to similar changes occurring in today is climate as well, he said.

To me, these are things we really need to be concerned about.
The impact of a climate change of that magnitude on a modern world would be tremendous, he said. Seventy percent of the population lives in the world's tropics and major climate changes would directly impact most of them.

Thompson believes that the 5,200-year old event may have been caused by a dramatic fluctuation in solar energy reaching the earth. Scientists know that a historic global cooling called the Little Ice Age, from 1450 to 1850 A.D., coincided with two periods of decreased solar activity.

Evidence shows that around 5,200 years ago, solar output first dropped precipitously and then surged over a short period. It is this huge solar energy oscillation that Thompson believes may have triggered the climate change he sees in all those records.

The climate system is remarkably sensitive to natural variability, he said. "It is likely that it is equally sensitive to effects brought on by human activity, changes like increased greenhouse gases, altered land-use policies and fossil-fuel dependence.

Any prudent person would agree that we don't yet understand the complexities with the climate system and, since we don't, we should be extremely cautious in how much we tweak the system, he said.

The evidence is clear that a major climate change is underway.

Source: Ohio State University

Tuesday 6 May 2014

DAVID HUME





 David Hume was a Scottish philosopher, historian, economist, and essayist known especially for his philosophical empiricism and skepticism. He was one of the most important figures in the history of Western philosophy and the Scottish Enlightenment. Hume is often grouped with John Locke, George Berkeley, and a handful of others as a British Empiricist.

    Born: May 7, 1711, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
  Died: August 25, 1776, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Hume attended the University of Edinburgh at the unusually early age of twelve (possibly as young as ten) at a time when fourteen was normal. At first he considered a career in law, but came to have, in his words, "an insurmountable aversion to everything but the pursuits of Philosophy and general Learning; and while [my family] fanceyed I was poring over Voet and Vinnius, Cicero and Virgil were the Authors which I was secretly devouring." He had little respect for the professors of his time, telling a friend in 1735, "there is nothing to be learnt from a Professor, which is not to be met with in Books."
Hume made a philosophical discovery that opened up to him "...a new Scene of Thought," which inspired him "...to throw up every other Pleasure or Business to apply entirely to it." He did not recount what this "Scene" was, and commentators have offered a variety of speculations. Due to this inspiration, Hume set out to spend a minimum of ten years reading and writing. He came to the verge of nervous breakdown, after which he decided to have a more active life to better continue his learning.
As Hume's options lay between a travelling tutorship and a stool in a merchant's office, he chose the latter. In 1734, after a few months occupied with commerce in Bristol, he went to La Flèche in Anjou, France. There he had frequent discourse with the Jesuits of the College of La Flèche. As he had spent most of his savings during his four years there while writing A Treatise of Human Nature, he resolved "to make a very rigid frugality supply my deficiency of fortune, to maintain unimpaired my independency, and to regard every object as contemptible except the improvements of my talents in literature". He completed the Treatise at the age of 26.

Through his discussions on politics, Hume developed many ideas that are prevalent in the field of economics. This includes ideas on private property, inflation, and foreign trade. Referring to his essay "Of the Balance of Trade," Paul Krugman has remarked "... David Hume created what I consider the first true economic model."
In contrast to Locke, Hume believes that private property isn't a natural right. Hume argues it is justified, because resources are limited. Private property would be an unjustified, "idle ceremonial", if all goods were unlimited and available freely. Hume also believed in an unequal distribution of property, because perfect equality would destroy the ideas of thrift and industry. Perfect equality would thus lead to impoverishment.
His thought contains elements that are, in modern terms, both conservative and liberal, as well as ones that are both contractarian and utilitarian, though these terms are all anachronistic. Thomas Jefferson banned Hume's History from the University of Virginia, fearing that it "has spread universal toryism over the land".
 Yet, Samuel Johnson thought Hume "a Tory by chance... for he has no principle. If he is anything, he is a Hobbist". His central concern is to show the importance of the rule of law, and stresses throughout his political Essays the importance of moderation in politics. This outlook needs to be seen within the historical context of eighteenth century Scotland, where the legacy of religious civil war, combined with the relatively recent memory of the 1715 and 1745 Jacobite risings, fostered in a historian such as Hume a distaste for enthusiasm and factionalism that appeared to threaten the fragile and nascent political and social stability of a country that was deeply politically and religiously divided. He thinks that society is best governed by a general and impartial system of laws, based principally on the "artifice" of contract; he is less concerned about the form of government that administers these laws, so long as it does so fairly (though he thought that republics were more likely to do so than monarchies).Hume expressed suspicion of attempts to reform society in ways that departed from long-established custom, and he counselled peoples not to resist their governments except in cases of the most egregious tyranny. However, he resisted aligning himself with either of Britain's two political parties, the Whigs and the Tories
Hume's views on human motivation and action formed the cornerstone of his ethical theory: he conceived moral or ethical sentiments to be intrinsically motivating, or the providers of reasons for action. Given that one cannot be motivated by reason alone, requiring the input of the passions, Hume argued that reason cannot be behind morality.
Morals excite passions, and produce or prevent actions. Reason itself is utterly impotent in this particular. The rules of morality, therefore, are not conclusions of our reason.
Hume's sentimentalism about morality was shared by his close friend Adam Smith, and Hume and Smith were mutually influenced by the moral reflections of Francis Hutcheson.
Hume's theory of ethics has been influential in modern day metaethical theory, helping to inspire various forms of emotivism, error theory and ethical expressivism and non-cognitivism and Allan Gibbard.

His valuable works are as follows:
  A Kind of History of My Life (1734)
  A Treatise of Human Nature: (1739–40)
  An Abstract of a Book lately Published: Entitled A Treatise of Human Nature etc. (1740)
  Essays Moral and Political (first ed. 1741–2)
  Political Discourses, (part II of Essays, Moral, Political, and Literary within vol. 1 of the larger Essays and Treatises on Several Subjects) Edinburgh (1752).
 Political Discourses/Discours politiques (1752–1758), My Own life (1776), Of Essay writing, 1742
  Four Dissertations London (1757
  The History of England (1754–62)
  "My Own Life" (1776)

Monday 14 April 2014

GROWTH AND FDI

 GROWTH  AND FDI

A.K.Tiwari(2011) conducted an empirical analysis in the framework of a panel for 23 Asian countries by employing data from 1986 to 2008. He also incorporated a two-way effect model for the analysis, as the assumptions of fixed and random effects across countries and over time are extremely plausible. He also
examined nonlinearities associated with exports and FDI in the economic growth of Asian countries. Further, as he had studied a large sample of Asian countries, he tried to minimise the country-specific heterogeneity by imposing two-way dummies, i.e., in case of two-way fixed- and random-effect models by using time-country dummies. He has also checked the robustness of the results by analysing different models. However, by imposing dummies of
cultural aspects and religion he might have gotten more robust results, and an extended study in this area should incorporate these issues. There are studies which have found that cultural and religion aspects of a country have considerable impact on the economic growth on the respective countries (see, for example, Dieckmann 1996, Griffin 1999, Casson and Godley
2000, Marini 2004, Grier 1997, Blum and Dudley 2001 and Barro and McCleary 2003).
The results of his
analysis show that FDI and exports enhance the growth of Asian countries and also that labour and capital help in that process. This implies that Asian countries that are moving ahead for globalization might choose to go ahead. However, when we analyzed the case of nonlinearity associated only with FDI, he found that this variable enhances growth. On the other hand, the investigation of the nonlinearity in both cases, i.e., exports and FDI, show a significant and positive impact of exports only on the economic growth of panel countries.
This suggests that to achieve a higher and higher growth path, moving ahead with exports is more feasible in Asian countries. This is true, particularly for countries that do not have sufficient resources to bring more advanced technology to private homes. The more advanced technology would create an attractive environment for FDI, but would also require an extensive investment for large improvements in the country’s infrastructure.
Further, there are studies that have found that FDI has a negative impact on economic growth and income distribution. Hence, he suggests an export-led growth path, particularly at the initial stage of growth, in the later period, dependence on FDI might be feasible option. This finding can be defended based on two arguments (see Afzal 2010). First, the exports promotion incentives determine a specialization of the economy accompanied by the scale benefices. Second, the augmented exports may stimulate the country to import high-value inputs, products and technologies. By consequence, these elements may have a positive impact on the productive capacity of the economy.

Thursday 10 April 2014

ON ECONOMIC CORRUPTION,POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND FINANCIAL CRISIS

ON ECONOMIC CORRUPTION, POLITICAL CORRUPTION AND FINANCIAL CRISIS

Full transcript of the video “On Economic Corruption, Political Corruption and Financial Crisis”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kot_GHdIMU (Excerpt from “The financial crisis, guilt of the market or the State?” -full video in Spanish-, discussion organized by Dante A. Urbina in the course of Macroeconomics II, Faculty of Economic Sciences of the Major National University of San Marcos (Lima - Peru) on November 28, 2013).
It is said that the State is a conglomeration of individual interests. Precisely there is a theory about this, which is the Public Choice Theory. Well, in this context it is assumed that each person is the best judge of his own welfare. The point is this: we realize that if each person is an agent seeking to maximize their welfare and may even be involved in corruption in order to maximize this welfare... if that is true regarding the State, why would automatically false regarding the market? Is there no corruption in the market? Or rather: is there not a systemic relationship between corruption in the market and corruption in the State? Are separate phenomena?
It was mentioned that some people in the State who had some particular economic interests had also important positions. But what is the problem here: the State itself, the institution itself, or rather the corrupt economic environment which dominates the State, the State capture?
It is said: “Banks take riskier positions because the State allows it”. Correct. But why the State allows it? The State allows it, for example in the U.S., because the lobby is legal. What is the lobby? It means that companies can “solve” their problems by giving money to Congress members so that they promote certain types of policies. And the same occurs in the Executive. When the crisis emerged there was a general problem of moral hazard. I mean, is not as simple as that the State is saying “Give me money, give me money to do what you want”. There is not only someone behind the door waiting for money to carry out corrupt actions but also there are also lots of private companies knocking on the door in order to corrupt. Where corruption exists there must be corrupt and corrupting people.
Someone might say: “Well, but why governments are not honest? Why don’t they stop the corruption?”. The issue is: the market is not an abstract entity; the market also exists in a set of power relations. Individuals who manage the big banks may also have control over media. If they have power over media, have the power to show the image of the governments to the people and, in a democratic system, as the people is ultimately who vote, this allows them to manipulate the image of the government. If the government behaves well with respect to their economic interests, their media will say that this government does things right, whereas if the government begins to contradict their economic interests, their media (in which they are the owners) could show the government in a negative way.
It was also mentioned that President Carter supported to leftists and forced the banks to give loans to insolvent people. But if we see a documentary like, for example, “Capitalism: A Love Story” by Michael Moore, we will find that the process of the current crisis can be understood from the deregulation which came in the 80s with Reagan, which was not supported by leftists but rather by rightists. He gave the banks free rein to do whatever they want.
The point is that government officials are also people who have been working on these big banks. Henry Paulson, the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, was CEO of Goldman Sachs and, moreover, the President Reagan's chief economic adviser was Chairman of Merrill Lynch.

Well, then it’s very important understanding that exist an interrelationship between corruption in market and state corruption, they are not separate phenomena.

Friday 4 April 2014

THE DEPOLITIZATION OF THE ECONOMICS

THE “DEPOLITIZATION” OF THE ECONOMICS (Part 3) 

 Dante Abelardo Urbina Padilla


The triumphant neoliberalism

On November 9, 1989 a historic event of great importance did happen in the world: the fall of the Berlin Wall. That same year Francis Fukuyama published his famous article “The End of History” in which he argues that “we are witnessing the end of history as such: that is, the end point of mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of government” (15). Thus, neoliberalism trumps all other alternatives civilizational and consecrated itself as the final form of political-economic organization of the “New World Order”.
In this context of globalization, the economic theory becomes a mere instrumental knowledge (technocracy) thinking itself essentially as a “tool-box”, constituted by models and theories to be conveniently used by economist to fix up the “mismatches” of economical machinery. No longer examines content issues of economics. Only the functional relationships are considered important. In other words, it does not matter to know what is X and what is Y but only how they relate functionally to manipulate variables “instrument” and thus achieve the desired results with the “target variables”. Hence the preponderance has Econometrics in the analysis and current economic policy.
This new approach of the economics as a knowledge essentially instrumental has clear epistemological implications because  not given importance to the explanatory power of theories -which necessarily lead us to the plane of Political Economy- but only to their predictive power. Therefore, it is not strange that a liberal economist as Milton Friedman hold that it is not necessary to consider the realism of the assumptions or the explanatory power of a theory when examining its scientific validity but only its “predictive power” because “positive economics is or may be an objective science in the same sense as any of the physical sciences”. (16)
The “depoliticization” of the Economics
After all this historical analysis of the evolution of economic theory and epistemology in the context of different social and political events, is that we can see clearly that the economists never could get separate science from ideology. The process of “depoliticization” of the economy was clearly an ideological process that sought to eliminate the explicit political element of economic analysis to replace it with an implicit (camouflaged) form of policy based on utilitarian individualism, the doctrine of minimum State and the liberalism bourgeois.
So it is not surprising that economists now called “neoclassical” decided to change the name of economic science from “Political Economy” to simply “Economy”, so that the separation between economics and politics, between market and State, is final. Thus, the Economy become a “pure” science. But that claim is clearly an ideological choice that, as Immanuel Wallerstein explains, “has to do with the dominant ideology during the nineteenth century. Basically, the dominant view of liberalism worldwide was that the State, market and society were three distinct entities. They operated with different logical and therefore should be studied separately, and in a sense, stood apart in the real world. So the scholars had to segregate their knowledge of such aspects. Overall this was what happened, and what was already established in 1945 as an organizing principle for the social sciences at leading universities”. (17)
However, as it explains Oscar Lange “the ideological element in scientific research is not necessarily an obstacle in obtaining results with objective validity” to the point that “the ideological motive can also stimulate the development of science” (18). Therefore, to make an objective judgment about the legitimacy (or illegitimacy) of neoclassical economists's attempt to eliminate the political factor of the Economy will be examined, to speak in terms of epistemology lakatiana, if from this are built scientific research programs “progressives” or “regressives”. (19)
To answer this question it will be necessary to understand the nature of the relationship between economics and politics and then examine the epistemological and practical implications that flow from this.
In general terms we can define economics as the discipline that studies the management of resources to meet human needs and politics as the art of government. However, since resources are limited, there will always be needs that will remain unmet and this will lead to individuals to make decisions about how to distribute and use these resources. This has to do necessarily with the political structure of society in terms of the organization, distribution and institutionalization of the power of the different agents interacting in it, which obviously leads to the plane of politics and, therefore, can be said of consistently that the economy is intrinsically linked to the political and, consequently, that economic theory -if it want to be realistic- must become inescapably in Political Economy.
The epistemological implications of the above line of reasoning are extremely important because it follows that the only coherent and consistent way to study economic phenomena is through of a multidisciplinary analysis because in reality there are no “economic”, “sociological” or “political” problems but only “social problems” and they all have an irreducible complexity, it being understood it as that none of the aspects (political, psychological, ethical, economic, etc.) that compose it can be analyzed in isolation with respect to the other because each one of them have always and necessarily a constant and intrinsic relationship with the others.
The traditional way that neoclassical economists have to get rid of these difficulties has been and still is say that they work only with so-called “economic factors”. But taking into account the above we can say that it is absolutely wrong because it is not logically possible to isolate a part of reality denominating it simply as “economic” when in fact exist as such only insofar as it are interrelated with the legal and the political structure (institutional) of society. Moreover, the appeal to the isolation of the “economic factors” as a criterion of demarcation does not solve anything because it is like a pettitio principi falacy. And is that the single definition of “economic factors” involves scrutiny of all the factors involved, including the “non-economic”, which is only done once defined a priori the concepts used.
With respect to the practical implications of recovering the political approach in Economic theory we have to say they are as or more important than epistemological. As the prestigious epistemologist argentine Mario Bunge says, any study of Economics as if an autonomous and isolated is doomed. Clear example of this is the unfortunate experience they have had and still have several Third World countries with economic planners who ignore the non-economic components of society and the system of values and norms inherent therein. Most development plans designed for these countries are due to economists who have ignored the circumstances and the cultural and political values of those societies, deliberately sacrificing their cultural and political aspirations in order to reach one goal all costs: industrialization, stabilization of the currency or some other purpose of economic policy. No wonder, then, that such plans have usually lacked popular support and, in most cases, have not achieved their goals. A successful development plan should be considered only as a component of a much broader, inclusive and comprehensive social plan.
In conclusion, it is absolutely necessary to recover the political dimension of economics to deal explicitly with greater accuracy, breadth and depth the problems we face. In this sense, the pretension of neoclassical economists to construct an economic theory "chemically pure" is nothing more than an counterproductive ideological attempt which conceals the political nature of the economy in order to avoid the uncomfortable political consequences (for certain group) that could result from economic analysis.
Therefore, the kind of economist who need the world of the future and that should be taught in our universities should be like that Keynes's describing, in his biography of Marshall, when wrote that “has to reach far in different directions and must combine powers natural which is not always found together in the same individual. He must be in some degree mathematician, historian, statesman and philosopher. He must understand symbols and speak with ordinary words. He must contemplate the particular in terms of the general and the abstract and concrete touching on the same flight of thought. He must study the present in the light of the past and facing the future. No part of man's nature or his institutions must be completely out of his consideration. He must be simultaneously intentional and selfless as idealistic and as incorruptible as an artist, yet sometimes as near the earth as a politician”. (20)
References
15. Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History”, The National Interest, No. 16, Summer 1989, p. 4.
16. Milton Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago University Press, Chicago, 1953, p.10.
17. Immanuel Wallerstein, "Open the Social Sciences", lecture delivered on 24 October 1995 for the Social Science Research Council in New York.
18. Oscar Lange, “Field and Method of Economics” (1945-1946), in: Economic Quarter, No. 58, Fondo de Cultura Economica, Mexico.
19. See: Imre Lakatos, The methodology of scientific research programs, Alianza, Madrid, 1989, p.9.
20. John M. Keynes, “Essays on Biography”, in: The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, vol. X, Macmillan, London, 1972.


You can contact the author of this article in: “Dante Abelardo Urbina Padilla” (Facebook) and dante.urbina1@gmail.com (email)