49th Annual Conference of The Indian Econometric Society

49TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE INDIAN ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY

The Indian Econometric Society has organised its 49th Annual Conference at Patna University,Department of Statistics during 9-11January,2013.The conference was inaugurated by Prof.Shambhu Nath Sing-the Vice Chancellor of Patna University and the guest lecture was given by Law Minister ,Govt. of Bihar.The inaugural address was given by Prof.V.R.Panchamukhi.Presidential address was orated by Prof.Biswajit Chatterjee of Jadavpur University.Prof.NRBhanumurty gave vote of thanks as a secretary.A book,titled "Growth,Development and Diversity:India's record since Liberalisation" written by K.Pushpangadan and VNBalasubrahmanyam was released here.Prof.Mihir Rakshit of ICRA gave the special invited lecture on Liquidity Trap:Theory and Policy.There was a special panel session on Inflation Modelling in India.Sumit Majumder of University of Dallas,USA lectured on Innovation and Globalisation.Prof.Dilip Nachane of IGIDR gave lecture on Hilbert 16th problem,limit cycles and bifercation theory:Some Economic Application".Prof.Neeraj Hatekar of Mumbai University said on Econometrics with R.Dr.S.Chandrasekhar of IGIDR spoke about Econometrics of cross section and panel data.Prof.M.Ramachandran of Pondicherry University spoke on Time series Econometrics.A panel discussion was held on Data Base of the Indian Economy.A special session on the Bihar economy and planning was an attractive occassion.Prof.Satya P.Das of ISI,Delhi said about Introduction to sports Economics and a model of countryline and clubline cricket.Lastly Vice Chancellor closed the conference with vote of thanks by secretary.There were 20 technical sessions,consisting of more than 130 papers ,namely,

Technical Session I-A:  Topic: Macro-Monetary Economics -I

Technical Session I-B, Topic:  Industrial Economics - I

 Technical Session I-C, Topic: Agricultural Economics -I

Technical Session I-D, Topic: Development Economics- I

Technical Session I-E, Topic: International Economics -I

Technical Session II-A, Topic: Macro-Monetary Economics -II

Technical Session II-B, Topic: Industrial Economics - II 

Technical Session II-C, Topic: International Economics- II

Technical Session II-D, Topic: Health & Education

Technical Session II-E, Topic: Banking & Finance - I

Technical Session III-A, Topic: International Economics -III

 

Technical Session III-B, Topic: Industrial Economics -III 

Technical Session III-C, Topic: Agricultural Economics-II

Technical Session III-D, Topic: Development Economics -II

Technical Session III-E, Topic: Banking & Finance-II

Technical Session IV-A, Topic: Macro-Monetary Economics-III

Technical Session IV-B, Topic: Public Finance

Technical Session IV-C, Topic: International Economics - III

 

Technical Session IV-D, Topic: Development Economics -III

Technical Session IV-E, Topic: Banking & Finance -III

I had a paper under international Economics-III on euro crisis:The growth and employment-Behind the nexus.It was with Dr.Asim Kumar Karmakar of Jadavpur University

 

Euro Crisis : The Growth and Employment in EU-Behind the nexus

Dr.Debes Chandra Bhaumik (International Institute for Development Studies(Kolkata)

Email-debeshbhowmik@rediffmail.com

Site-dbhowmik.blog.com

Dr. Asim K.Karmakar (Jadavpur University)

JEL Classification: O47; J23; P50

Keywords: GDP growth, unemployment growth, convergence, 

ABSTRACT

       The Euro crisis has distorted the general economic relationships in most of the macro variables in Euro Area. The employment and growth nexus was positive before the beginning of the Euro crisis and international financial crisis. But, the relationship turned into negative during 1999-2011 in the Euro Area because of the impact of Euro crisis.

Following  Engle-Granger Methodology of Co-Integration test(1987) and the Johansen M.L.Method of cointegration(1996) including the Error Correction Model ,we tried to show  significant the relationship between employment and growth in Euro zone during 1999-2011.The co-integration test suggests that there is no cointegration between growth of GDP and unemployment in the order of (1,1).The ECM model supported this result. The  impulse response analytic function of multiple graph suggest that it should not be converge to zero because change of unemployment  and change of growth rate are not co-integrated in the order of CI(1,1).

The Johansen M.L.Method of cointegration  showed there is no co-integration between the two variables in the order of (1,1) both in Trace Statistic and Max-Eigen values .

Before the crisis ,the above  result was not true because Walterskirchen(1999) showed that there is a very close relationship between GDP growth and employment in time-series as well as in cross-county analyses during 1988-1998 and  Signorelli(  2005 ) clarified that during the period 1995-2003  in EU-15 countries, the relationship was valid but better compared to US.

As regards policy option, The European Council has agreed the new strategy for jobs and growth, “the EU 2020 strategy” through[i] National Reform Programme,[ii] Joint Employment Report,[iii] country specific  recommendation by EU commission,[iv] Employment and Social Developments in Europe examining Joint Employment Report,[v] institutions like[a] European Employment Observatory Network and [b] Mutual Learning Programme,[vi] “New Momemtum for flexibility” developing “Quality of work”, exploring impact of employment policies, namely wages, taxation,and make work play, supporting job creation, exploring the impact of climate change on labour market and strengthening youth and self employment. Under “Lisbon  strategy”, EU countries have agreed on a number of precise targets and indicators for their joint efforts to create more jobs and growth. The main ones are that by 2010 the employment rate should have increased to 70 % and investment in research should have risen to 3 % of GDP.

95TH ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF INDIAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION

95^th  annual conference of Indian Economic Association was held at Gitam University, Visakhaptnam during 27-29 December,2012.Its focal theme was “Growth and Structural Changes in Employment”which was divided into four themes,namely,[i] Economic Growth and Employment Linkages,[ii]Employment pattern:Structural ,Regional and Social Groups,[iii] Drivers of Changing Pattern of Employment and [iv] Human Resource Development and Employment Pattern.Each theme is divided into two groups as per papers submission.[ia] Growth and employment linkages in which there were 30 papers and [ib]”Does the pace and pattern of growth influence the quality of employment”  where 19 papers were printed,[iia]”Changes in the structural employment “ in which 20papers were included,[iib]”Changing employment pattern-dimensions of region,gender and social groups” where 31 papers were accepted so far,[iiia]”Macro Economic Drivers of employment growth and its pattern” where 24 papers were published,[iiib] “Policy drivers” in which 16 papers were included,[iva]”Human resource development and the pattern of employment/unemployment” where 17 papers were published and [ivb] “Demographic dividend and the challenge of improving employability” where 11 papers were included.

 On 27December,welcome address was given by Prof.G.Subrahmanyam-Vice Chacellor of Gitam University and the conference was inaugurated by Mrs.D.Purandeswari,the Hon’ble Minister of State,Commerce and Industry,GOI.The Conference President of Indian Economic Association, Prof.B.L.Mungekar,the member of Parliament,Rajya Sabha gave address on “Contextualising Nehruvian Model of Development”.The Association  President,Prof.S.Thorat and Secretary Prof.Anil Kumar Thakur delivered their addresses to the attended participant.Some of the important books on Economic Issues were released,and Prof.K.Siva Rama Krishna,Principal of Management Gitam University,gave vote of thanks as a local organizer.

Prof.T.S.Papola was the key note speaker of the theme 1A and 1B,and Prof.S.Mahendra Dev and Prof.Amaresh Dubey were the key note speakers of themes 2A and 2B respectively.Prof.Biswajit Chatterjee and Prof.Arup Mitra were the key note speakers of the theme,3A and 3B. Prof.K.P.Kanan and Prof.Sudhakar Panda wre the key note speakers of the theme 4A and 4B respectively.

The R.H.Patil Memorable Lecture was given by Prof. Ajay Shah of National Institute of Public Finance and Policy,NewDelhi.Prof.Suresh Tendulkar memorial lecture was given by Prof. G.K.Chaddha,the President,South Asian University,NewDelhi.A Panel Discussion on “How to enhance research capacity and the quality of teaching materials in the college and University teachers” was well discussed by Prof.S.Thorat,Prof.S.Indumati,Prof.C.H.Hanumantha Rao, Dr.C.Rangarajan,Dr.Vijay Kelkar,Prof.T.S.Papola and V.R.Panchamukhi, Prof.B.L. Mungekar, Prof.G.K.Chaddha,Prof.K.S.Chalam,Prof.Ramesh Dhadichi,Prof.Paramananda Singha  respectively.Prof.Brahmananda memorial lecture was given by Prof.C.R.Rangarajan-the president of economic advisor of PM on Dynamics of Inflation.

All the paper writers of the 8 themes presented their papers in different rooms of Institute of Management,Gitam University.The Association published 4 volumes namely special volume of Indian Economic Journal,December,2012.

My paper lies in the theme 1A whose title was “The Nexus between the Employment and GDP growth rate” where I concluded that India’s GDP growth and unemployment rate not  cointegrated in the order of (1,1) and it is positively related insignificantly during 1994-2010.Also it was non-linear in shape but was not significant having ARCH and AR errors. The Sims(1980) VAR model was insignificant and asymptotic and impulse response function converges zero, the ECM model is not significant.The Planning Commission and RBI data on employment elasticity and growth rate and employment growth rate signified that India did not have any inverse relationship between GDP growth rate and unemployment rate.   

There were also more than 150 paper presenters whose papers were abstracted in the summary volume.

IEA organized a special session on Andhra Pradesh Economy where many papers were produced on the chairmanship of Prof.L.K.Mohan Rao,Prof. of Andhra University.

An important panel discussion on skill development and vocational education was held and chaired by Prof.K.C.Reddy and the discussands were Dilip H.M.Chenoy,Prof.Sudhanshsu Bhusan, Prof.Alakh N.Sharma ,Mr.Vijay Mahajan and Prof.Nawal Kishore Choudhury respectively.

The valedictory session was ornamented by the chief guest Sri Jai Ram Ramesh,Hon’ble Minister for Rural Development ,GOI.The session was ended by the memorable addresses from the President,conference President and the Secretary of the Indian Economic Association.

During 27-28 December,the cultural function enriched the 95^th conference  where the classical vocal singers and dancers as well as modern dances by students of Gitam university were the major attractions.   

GLOBAL WARMING,SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND W.T.O.

Abstract

GLOBAL WARMING,SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND W.T.O.

Dr.DEBESH BHOWMIK

JEL-F18,Q01,Q17,Q54,Q56

Keywords-Global warming,agricultural production,climate policy,sustainable development

WTO,CO₂ emission,multilateral environment agreement

In this paper,we have showed that global warming is the outcome of increased green house gases like CFC,HCFC,C,CH4,CO2 etc by which diarrheal diseases,air pollution,soil erosion, salinisation, ozone depletion,loss of biodiversity will continue to grow and the global temperature will increase 10ºC in the next 100 years for which sea level will step up 6 metres.A sound international climate policy is absent due to non-ratification of Kyoto Protokol by USA,so that EU,Brazil,China,Mexico,ASEAN planned to reduce green house gas emissions by 30% within 2020.Most of the developed countries followed Stern and IPCC reports and Clean Development Mechanism for sustainability.A number of research studies proved that the impact of global warming on agriculture is negative at 2ºC-3ºC increase in temperature with/without carbon fertilization with severe loss of agricultural production in Africa,South America,Western Asia and India. WTO has no expertise to deal with environmental problem such as heating the upper atmosphere, or has no  objection or targets to reduce green house gas emissions.Members of WTO are ,however,concerned with trade measures applied pursuant to Multilateral Environmental Agreements which can affect WTO members’ rights and obligations.Thus why, Doha summit calls for the reduction or as appropriate , elimination of tariff and non tariff barriers to environmental goods and services in which WTO made a list of 153 environmental goods and EU-USA submitted 43 goods claiming zero tariff on or after 2013.Thus,WTO ,through increased dissemination of cleaner technologies,win win climate policies by improving resource allocation,promoting economic growth and increasing welfare,may lead to grow 7-14% of trade in climate friendly technologies.  

For full article , read -Anil Kumar Trhakur and Dipti Taneja edited ,"Economics of Sustainable Development(2012)(Deep and Deep Publications,NewDelhi),pp356-378