INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH JOURNAL OF HUMANITIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES- Volume-1,Issue-7( I ),October 2012 , pp1-4
ISSUES ON POVERTY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Dr.Debesh Bhowmik[1]
KEY WORDS - climate change, poverty
JEL-I30, I38
Objective
There is a good correlation between
poverty and climate change and therefore climate change affects poor in every
corner of social, economic and political life .The association between poverty
and climate change is a general problem of the world now and to fight against
poverty is to fight against climate change otherwise the goal of sustainable
development will be in vain. A strong ,
honest and farsighted government must have strong policies on the
poverty-climate change nexus.
This paper tries to endeavor to
study on the poverty climate change nexus and will show some roles of
governance.
The Nexus Between Poverty
And Climate Change
The World Bank now estimates that as
many as 2 billion people will lack sufficient drinking water by mid-century as
a result of climate change, with 100-400 million people experiencing severe
poverty. A new report by GCCA and Realizing Rights delves into the
interconnection between poverty and climate change.
However, the impacts of climate change
on the poor will be context-specific, reflecting factors such as geographic
location; economic, social, and cultural characteristics; prioritization and
concerns of individual households, and social groups; as well as institutional
and political constraints. The following points illustrate the impacts of
climate change on poor people’s livelihoods.
● Climate change is projected to
reduce poor people’s livelihood assets, for example, health, access to water,
homes, and infrastructure.
● Climate change is expected to alter
the path and rate of economic growth due to changes in natural systems and
resources, infrastructure, and labor productivity. A reduction in economic
growth directly impacts poverty through reduced income opportunities.
● Climate change is projected to alter
regional food security. In particular in Africa, food security is expected to
worsen.
● Direct effects of climate change
include increases in heat-related mortality and illness associated with heat
waves ● Climate change may increase the prevalence of some vector-borne
diseases and vulnerability to water, food, or person to- person borne diseases.
● Climate change will likely result in
declining quantity and quality of drinking water, which is a pre requisite for good health, and exacerbate
malnutrition – an important source of ill health among children – by reducing
natural resource productivity and threatening food security, particularly in
Sub-Saharan Africa.
● Links to climate change are less
direct, but loss of livelihood assets (social, natural, physical, human, and
financial capital) may reduce opportunities for full-time education in numerous
ways. Natural disasters and drought reduce children’s available time, while
displacement and migration can reduce access to education opportunities.
● Climate change is expected to
exacerbate current gender inequalities. Depletion of natural resources and
decreasing agricultural productivity may place additional burdens on women’s
health and reduce time available to participate in decision making processes
and income generating activities.
● Climate related disasters have been
found to impact more severely on female headed households, particularly where
they have fewer assets to start with.
● Climate change will alter the
quality and productivity of natural resources and ecosystems, some of which may
be irreversibly damaged, and these changes may also decrease biological
diversity and compound existing environmental degradation.
● Global climate change is a global
issue and response requires global cooperation,
IPCC (2001b) suggests that temperature
rise by 2100 could lead to significant increases in potential breeding grounds
for malaria in parts of Brazil, Southern Africa, and the Horn of Africa. In a
few areas – such as parts of Namibia and the West African Sahel – malaria risk
may fall due to excessive heat. In Africa, cities that currently are not at
risk of malaria because of their high altitudes, such as Nairobi and Harare,
may be newly at risk if the range in which the mosquito can live and breed
increases.(Gallup and Sachs 2000).
In 2000, Kenya experienced its worst
drought in 40 years. Effects were severe for pastoralists because ancient coping
mechanisms had broken down, either because land had been sold or because of
barriers erected by the relatively affluent farmers, ranchers, industry, and
city residents. Some traditional drought responses, such as raiding of
neighboring cattle and killing wildlife, have become illegal and are no longer
an option. As societal norms affect traditional behavior, strategies may no
longer be valid and there is the need to support the vulnerable population in
identifying new strategies that enable them to deal with adverse climate and
adjust to new socioeconomic conditions. ( UNEP 2002).
The community-based cyclone
preparedness program in Bangladesh has found that where women were not involved
in village level disaster preparedness committees, responsible for maintaining
cyclone shelters and transmitting warnings, they made up the highest proportion
of cyclone victims. In Cox’s Bazaar in east Bangladesh, where women are now
fully involved in disaster preparedness and support activities (education,
reproductive health, self-help groups, and small and medium enterprises), there
has been a huge reduction in the numbers of women killed or affected.The
situation in India as a result of climate change was estimated by World Bank in
the following manner.
In India 33.516 million hectares of
land have been identified as flood-prone. India is one of six major
cyclone-prone countries in the world. According to the Vulnerability Atlas of
India approximately 5,700 km of the
7,500 km long coastline are prone to cyclones arising from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. Cyclonic storms and
storm surges have been responsible for some severe fatalities along the coasts,
the worst of which was caused during the Orissa Super cyclone (1999) killing at least 10,000 people
.The hilly regions of India are susceptible to landslide and avalanche hazards.
The most vulnerable are the Himalayan Mountains followed by the North-Eastern
hill ranges. Between 1990 and 2008 natural disasters affected more than 885
million people in India. The World Bank
has provided the following figures relating to natural disasters in
India :
[i]Population: 1,071,608,000,[ii]
Population affected: 885,244,000,[iii]Number of deaths: 53,400,[iv]Damage
(US$): 25.74 billion
In the period 1990-2008 floods
accounted for the majority of damages in terms of costs in South Asia . India’s
reported cost of damage by floods has been the highest in the region .While the
country is familiar with annual floods in Assam, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, new
areas have been witnessing major floods (for example, Mumbai floods in 2005,
Kosi (Bihar) floods in 2008, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka floods in 2009). All
this entails huge economic losses and causes developmental setbacks. In India,
for instance, the direct losses from natural disasters have been estimated to
amount to up to 2 per cent of India’s GDP and up to 12 per cent of central
government revenues. At times state governments have spent more on relief and
damages than on their rural development programme. In the state of Maharashtra,
for example, a single drought in 2003 and a flood in 2005 consumed more of the
budget (Rs 175 billion) than the entire planned expenditure (Rs 152 billion) on
irrigation, agriculture, and rural development during 2002–2007 .
Many researches showed that an
increase of 2oC in temperature could decrease the rice yield by
about 0.75 ton/ha in the high yield areas; and a 0.5oC increase in
winter temperature would reduce wheat yield by 0.45 ton/ha. It was found that
decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in different parts of India
- For example a 2°C increase in mean air
temperature, rice yields could decrease by about 0.75 ton/hectare in the high
yield areas and by about 0.06 ton/ hectare in the low yield coastal regions.
Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops (other than rice and
wheat), which account for nearly 60% of crop land area. In India poorest
farmers practice rain fed agriculture. Also, the loss in farm-level net revenue
will range between 9 and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.
Climate change can depress the economy
by affecting the sources of growth. The exact nature and scale will depend on a
number of factors including:
● Quality of economic growth and
distribution of its benefits.
● Structure of the economy.
● Ability of the government to finance
important social services such as
education and health.
● Longer-term implications of
disruption to existing growth paths
through, for example damage to infrastructure.
In Fisheries, the Marine fisheries
supply is an important proportion of the world food supply and may represent a
much greater importance for local or regional food security in developing
countries where fish provides an important source of protein. Several major
ocean fisheries have already been subject to collapse and almost all of the 200
main fisheries monitored by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) are
fully exploited.
The IPCC (2001) has stated that
“overall negative health impacts are anticipated to outweigh positive health
impacts from climate change”.
[i] Infectious
diseases, [ii] Water related health
impacts [iii] Under-nutrition
The majority of studies have focused
on the issue of food security, generally predicting overall negative impacts
for developing countries. On the issues of food security, attention to the
effects of climate change on the following:
[i] cash
crops (such as coffee, tea and cotton) and cereals.[ii] livestock [iii] wild life and tourism
[iv] horticultural
crops
Therefore , Food Security is closely
associated with agricultural production and thereby linked to climate or
environment.We may raise the issue that the
Climate change may affect agriculture through:
Changes
in temperature and precipitation, Changes
in soil moisture and soil fertility,
Changes
in the length of growing season and An increased probability of extreme
climatic conditions (as dealt with above).
Global climate models (GCMs) predict
that aggregate changes in world food production are likely to be small. However
there is general agreement that climate change may lead to significant
reductions in agricultural productivity in developing countries. In the areas
of Food Security and Water Resources, Water availability is a key component of
food security, given the reliability of water supplies is perhaps the single
most important factor in food production. In general climate change is expected
to lead to more precipitation, but much of this increased wetness may not end
up where it is most needed. Arid and semi-arid regions are likely to suffer
even more reduced rainfall and increased evaporation. In this respect, climate
change is an added risk to these regions which have already been undergoing a
process of increased desertification and land degradation, caused both by
overexploitation and inappropriate land-use as well as general climatic
variations.
Agriculture ,climate change and poverty
Schmidhuber and Tubiello (2007)
conclude that climate change will accentuate the existing focus of food
insecurity on sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, on South Asia.
The study of Rosenberg and Crosson
(1991) on Missouri,Iowa,Nebraska and Kansas(MINK) concluded that warming by
2030 would reduce agricultural production in MINK area by 17.1% without
considering carbon fertilization. Reilly, Hohmann, Kane(1994) estimated that
without carbon fertilization or adoption, benchmark warming would impose global
damage ranging from $ 116 billion (at 1989 prices) to $ 248 billion across
three climate models. The study of Tol(2002) identified the agricultural impact
of global warming for 9 regions which were significantly negative at 2.5°C.
Jorgenson(2004) showed that world agriculture will decline by 26% in a central climate scenario with 2.4°C
global mean warming and 3.1°C US warming by 2100. Inter-governmental Panel on
Climate Change (2007) concludes that crop productivity would increase at 1-3°C
local mean temperature and decreased beyond at high latitude but the productivity would decrease at 1-2°C
local mean temperature at lower latitude.
Government Policy
In
food insecurity as a result of climate change ,a government can
formulate [i] the change of cropping pattern,[ii] cropping varieties,[iii]
changing timing of irrigation and adjusting nutrient management,[iv] applying
water-conserving technologies and promoting agro biodiversity for increased
resilience of agricultural systems,[v] applying genetic engineering plants etc.
In the other front, government should,[1] revamp PDS and food procurement
process more stronger,[2] Identify APL and BPL properly,[3] improve the
accuracy of the weather forecasting especially for agricultural output.National
Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) and Food Security Bill will immensely
benefit the new poor as a result of climate change.
Conclusion
Both the targets of global poverty eradication
and reduction of global emission have failed. The series of poverty alleviation
summits and the climate summit from Rio to Copenhagen to Durban have been ended
in a smoke. There are divergences among the rich and poor countries on the
issues of building global fund and its contribution and the targets there of.
The shares of burden differ and the agreements siphoned off.So the world
inequality aggravates, poor Africa become poorer with South Asia. The OECD
countries emit larger share of GHG but they did not agree to contribute and cut
larger emissions. Cross border effects of climate change hinder the poorer
regions adversely and thereby create “climate refugee” and “new poor” .If the
process continues, the dream of green world will become red and the world will
be an abode of war.
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[1] The author is associated with International Institute
for Development Studies,Kolkata,Executivemember,Bengal Economic Association,
Life member, Indian Economic Association.
