DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

MY ARTICLE

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

THEME-II

DIMENSIONS AND PATTERNS OF NAFTA-EUROPEAN UNION TRADE

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

Abstract

In this paper,author studied the trends, prospects and determinants of EU-NAFTA  trade during 1990-2016 showing cointegration and vector error corrections of world export share and import shares of EU and NAFTA with their determinants like export and import concentration index,export and import diversification index and trade balance indicator. Moreover, Euro Area’s trade with NAFTA from 1995-2016 was also explained by export and import concentration index and trade correlation indices. The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly with stationary process in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM . Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off. 

JEL codes—C32,F02,F14,F15

Key words – Trade co-operation,EU-NAFTA trade agreement,EU-NAFTA trade,EU-NAFTA trade indicators

The paper concludes that world export share and import shares of both EU and NAFTA during 1990-2016 have been declining significantly in which all of them have significant structural breaks downward. World export and import shares of EU from 1990-2016 are significantly negatively related with export and import diversification index but not significantly related with concentration and trade balance index. They are cointegrated with one cointegrating equation each having stable VECM and one significant error correction.World export and import shares of NAFTA are negatively related with concentration index, diversification index and trade balance index and found positive relation among trade balance index and import share of NAFTA. Both the export and import of EA to NAFTA during 1990-2014 have been significantly declining at the rates of 4.25% and 4.0% per year respectively.Euro Area’s export share is negatively related with export concentration index of EA to NAFTA and they are cointegrated with significant error correction process in stable and nonstationary VECM. Similarly,Euro Area’s import share is negatively related with import concentration index of EA to NAFTA with significant cointegration and error correction process in  stable and nonstationary VECM. Lastly , trade correlation index of EA-NAFTA trade in 2012 in comparison to 2005 suggests that EA-NAFTA trade has been improved or better off.  

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

NAME OF ARTICLE

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

IMPACT OF INDO-ASEAN EXPORT ON ASEAN INTEGRATION

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

(Retired Principal and Associated with The Indian Econometric Society)

Abstract

In this paper, author endeavors to show the impact of Indo-ASEAN export on trade and financial integration of ASEAN taking intra export share, FDI inflows, REER ,GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN as determinants during 1994-2017 and also tried to show the relationship between Indo-ASEAN export , export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN during the same period through Johansen co-integration test and vector error correction model and Granger causality test. The paper concludes that Indo-ASEAN export has been stipulating at the rate of 13.89% per year during 1994-2017 having three upward structural breaks in 2002, 2005 and 2010 with two co-integrating equations with FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate, and openness of ASEAN. There is long run causality from FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export since co-integrating equation 2 tends to equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 23.52% per year. There is short run causality running from intra-export share of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but other variables have no short run causality. Long run causality was visible from export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but they have no short run causality.

Key words-Indo-ASEAN export, short run causality, long run causality, co-integration, vector error correction model, trade integration

JEL classification –C22,F14,F15,F36

The paper concludes that Indo-ASEAN export has been stipulating at the rate of 13.89% per year during 1994-2017.It has three upward structural breaks in 2002, 2005 and 2010 respectively. Indo-ASEAN export has two co-integrating equations with FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate, and openness of ASEAN during 1994-2017.VECM showed that Indo-ASEAN export influenced negatively to FDI inflows and intra export share of ASEAN insignificantly. On the other hand, Indo-ASEAN export is positively related with REER significantly and positively related with GDP growth rate and openness insignificantly during 1994-2017.Cointegrating equations explained that there is long run causality from FDI inflows, intra-export share, REER, GDP growth rate and openness of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export since co-integrating equation 2 tends to equilibrium with the speed of adjustment of 23.52% per year. There is short run causality running from intra-export share of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but other variables have no short run causality. Bi-directional causality was observed between export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN and there is uni-directional causality from Indo-ASEAN export to export concentration index of ASEAN. Long run causality was visible from export concentration index and export diversification index of ASEAN to Indo-ASEAN export but they have no short run causality.

Basic Factors influencing Food grain production in Indian States: Panel Co-integration and VECM Analysis.

Basic Factors influencing Food grain production in Indian States: Panel Co-integration and VECM Analysis.

Dr.Debesh Bhowmik

ECONOMIC CHALLENGER

NO-21,ISSUE-82,JANUARY -MARCH 2019,P15-34

Abstract

In this paper Author finds the link among the food grain production , gross state domestic product at current prices, net irrigated area, fertilizer used by states, cropping intensity, state fiscal deficit  and state gross capital formation of 27 states in India from 1990-91 to 2015-16  using panel regression analysis, panel co-integration and vector error correction model. It finds positive link among food grain production ,gross state domestic product at current prices, net irrigated area, NPK used by states, cropping intensity and negative relation with state fiscal deficit. Johansen-Fisher test confirmed four co-integrating equations. VECM is stable, normally distributed and non-stationary with problem of autocorrelation. VECM states that there is significant long run association but in co-integrating equations change of food grain production and change of SDP have long run causality and they are moving towards equilibrium with slow speed but change of net irrigated area and change of cropping intensity do not move to equilibrium level because they have no long run causality with the independent variables. On the other hand, there is short run causality running from state fiscal deficit to SDP and cropping intensity only but rest of the variables did not show any short run causality.

Key Words-Food grain production, Panel co-integration, Panel vector error correction, Causality, Wald Test.

JEL classification codes-C12, C23, Q10, Q15, Q18

VII.Conclusion

The paper concludes that one per cent increase in SDP at current prices, net irrigated area, NPK used, cropping intensity, state fiscal deficit and state gross capital formation per year led to 0.177 %,0.7066%,0.0578% and1.5099%, increase in food grain production per year respectively  and decrease of 0.0599% and 0.0159% food grain production per year from 1990-91 to 2015-16 in 27 Indian states in fixed effect panel regression mode. Johansen-Fisher test confirmed three and four co-integrating equations Max Eigen and Trace statistic. VECM is stable, normally distributed and non-stationary with problem of autocorrelation. VECM states that there is significant long run association of food grain production of Indian states with state net irrigated area, utilization of fertilizers of the states, cropping intensity of the states during 1990-91-2015-16. In co-integrating equations change of food grain production and change of SDP have long run causality and they are moving towards equilibrium with slow speed but change of net irrigated area and change of cropping intensity do not move to equilibrium level because they have no long run causality with the independent variables. On the other hand, there is short run causality running from x₅ to x₁ and x₄ only but rest of the variables do not show any short run causality.

Non Performing Assets and macro economics in India :Panel data analysis by Dr. Debesh Bhowmik

The book contains 13 research papers which were accepted and presented in the 101st conference of Indian economic association in Vellore Institute of Technology during 27th..... 29th December, 2018. All are good research papers. 

I have a paper in this edited volume. The name of  my article is " Non Performing Assets and macro economics in India : Panel Data analysis " from page 1 to 22. 

The  paper concludes that there is long-run causality from npa/advance to GDP and inflation and there is significant short run causality from npa/advance to GDP and from GDP and Inflation to npa/advance in India during 1996..97.....2015...16.And GDP is inversely related with npa/advance.

The study implies that India's high NPA is detrimental to GDP. 

The book is hard bound and printed with good paper. It is useful to every researchers.